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Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Ohio's 12th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 18, 2019
Primary: April 28, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Troy Balderson (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in Ohio
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Ohio's 12th Congressional District
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Ohio elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Troy Balderson won election in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 12.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 18, 2019
March 17, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Troy Balderson, who was first elected in 2018.

Balderson defeated Tim Day in the April 28, 2020, Republican primary, receiving 84 percent of the vote to Day's 16 percent. Democratic nominee Alaina Shearer defeated Jennifer Bell in the Democratic primary, receiving 58 percent of the vote to Bell's 42 percent.

Balderson was first elected in 2018 following a special election to replace Patrick Tiberi (R). He defeated Danny O'Connor (D) in the election, receiving 50.1 percent of the vote to O'Connor's 49.3 percent. The two candidates met again at the regularly scheduled election in 2018, where Balderson again defeated O'Connor, receiving 51.4 percent of the vote to O'Connor's 47.2 percent. The 0.8 and 4.2 point margins of victory in 2018 marked a decrease from prior elections. In 2016 and 2014, the Republican candidate—Tiberi—won by margins of victory of 36.8 and 40.3 points, respectively.

Ohio's 12th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Delaware, Licking, and Morrow counties with the addition of portions of Franklin, Marion, Muskingum, and Richland counties.[1]


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Ohio's 12th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 46.3 51.8
Republican candidate Republican Party 52.2 55.2
Difference 5.9 3.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Ohio modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications could be submitted by fax or email for the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 12

Incumbent Troy Balderson defeated Alaina Shearer and John Stewart in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Troy Balderson
Troy Balderson (R)
 
55.2
 
241,790
Image of Alaina Shearer
Alaina Shearer (D) Candidate Connection
 
41.8
 
182,847
Image of John Stewart
John Stewart (L) Candidate Connection
 
3.0
 
13,035

Total votes: 437,672
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12

Alaina Shearer defeated Jennifer Bell in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on April 28, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Alaina Shearer
Alaina Shearer Candidate Connection
 
58.4
 
34,103
Image of Jennifer Bell
Jennifer Bell Candidate Connection
 
41.6
 
24,263

Total votes: 58,366
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12

Incumbent Troy Balderson defeated Tim Day in the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on April 28, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Troy Balderson
Troy Balderson
 
83.9
 
51,412
Tim Day
 
16.1
 
9,877

Total votes: 61,289
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12

John Stewart advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on April 28, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of John Stewart
John Stewart (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
59

Total votes: 59
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nine of 88 Ohio counties—10.2 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Ashtabula County, Ohio 18.80% 12.78% 13.54%
Erie County, Ohio 9.48% 12.29% 13.86%
Montgomery County, Ohio 0.73% 4.62% 6.22%
Ottawa County, Ohio 19.51% 4.30% 6.24%
Portage County, Ohio 9.87% 5.52% 8.99%
Sandusky County, Ohio 22.58% 2.71% 4.64%
Stark County, Ohio 17.17% 0.47% 5.46%
Trumbull County, Ohio 6.22% 23.00% 22.43%
Wood County, Ohio 7.99% 4.84% 7.13%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Ohio with 51.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Ohio cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 93.3 percent of the time (28 out of 30 elections), more than any other state in the country. In that same time frame, Ohio supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 60 to 40 percent. Between 2000 and 2016, Ohio voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Ohio. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 35.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 33 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 34 points. Clinton won seven districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 60 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 17.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Ohio's 12th Congressional District the 171st most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Troy Balderson Republican Party $2,020,934 $1,999,773 $43,050 As of December 31, 2020
Alaina Shearer Democratic Party $1,040,754 $1,032,453 $8,301 As of December 31, 2020
John Stewart Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 12

Incumbent Troy Balderson defeated Danny O'Connor and Joe Manchik in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Troy Balderson
Troy Balderson (R)
 
51.4
 
175,677
Image of Danny O'Connor
Danny O'Connor (D)
 
47.2
 
161,251
Image of Joe Manchik
Joe Manchik (G) Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
4,718
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
1

Total votes: 341,647
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Danny O'Connor
Danny O'Connor
 
40.5
 
18,211
Image of John Russell
John Russell
 
16.3
 
7,310
Image of Zach Scott
Zach Scott
 
16.1
 
7,236
Image of Jackie Patton
Jackie Patton
 
14.0
 
6,299
Image of Ed Albertson
Ed Albertson
 
7.9
 
3,531
Image of Doug Wilson
Doug Wilson
 
3.7
 
1,683
Image of John Peters
John Peters
 
1.5
 
670

Total votes: 44,940
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Troy Balderson
Troy Balderson
 
28.7
 
19,552
Image of Melanie Leneghan
Melanie Leneghan
 
27.6
 
18,777
Image of Tim Kane
Tim Kane
 
16.9
 
11,491
Kevin Bacon
 
14.3
 
9,711
Image of Carol O'Brien
Carol O'Brien
 
6.5
 
4,415
Image of Jon Halverstadt
Jon Halverstadt
 
1.7
 
1,130
Image of Mick Shoemaker Jr.
Mick Shoemaker Jr.
 
1.2
 
802
Image of Lawrence Cohen
Lawrence Cohen
 
1.2
 
798
Image of Pat Manley
Pat Manley
 
1.1
 
741
Image of John Adams
John Adams
 
0.9
 
618

Total votes: 68,035
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12

Joe Manchik advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Joe Manchik
Joe Manchik Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
181

Total votes: 181
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Patrick Tiberi (R) defeated Ed Albertson (D) and Joe Manchik (Green) in the general election. All three candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12]

U.S. House, Ohio District 12 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Tiberi Incumbent 66.6% 251,266
     Democratic Ed Albertson 29.8% 112,638
     Green Joe Manchik 3.6% 13,474
     N/A Write-in 0% 156
Total Votes 377,534
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

2014

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 12th Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Patrick Tiberi (R) defeated David Tibbs (D) and Bob Hart (G) in the general election.

U.S. House, Ohio District 12 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Tiberi Incumbent 68.1% 150,573
     Democratic David Tibbs 27.8% 61,360
     Green Bob Hart 4.1% 9,148
Total Votes 221,081
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Ohio Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. Ohio Secretary of State, "Ohio 2016 March Primary Candidate List," accessed March 11, 2016


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