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Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Ohio's 12th Congressional District special
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 7, 2018
Primary: May 8, 2018
General: August 7, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Vacant
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in Ohio
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 12th (special)
Ohio elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018
There were two elections for Ohio's 12th Congressional District in 2018. The first, a special election on August 7, 2018, filled the seat left vacant by Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-Ohio). The winner of the special election served the remainder of Tiberi's term until January 3, 2019. The second was the regularly scheduled general election on November 6, 2018, to elect the district's representative for the 116th Congress, which met from 2019 to 2021. The primaries for both elections took place on May 8, 2018.

Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor won the Democratic Party special primary election for Ohio's 12th Congressional District on May 8, 2018, advancing to the special election on August 7, 2018, against Troy Balderson (R).

Although no Democratic candidate had won election to represent the 12th District since 1982, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to their list of targets in November 2017. The seat became open for the first time since 2000 following the resignation of Patrick Tiberi (R) to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable.[1]

In addition to O'Connor, five other Democratic candidates filed to appear on the May 8 primary ballot for both the regularly scheduled and special elections: businessman Ed Albertson (D), activist Crystal Lett (D), farmer John Russell (D), former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott (D), and respiratory practitioner Doug Wilson (D).

Ohio voter? Here's what you need to know:
Registration DeadlineApril 9, 2018
Absentee Application DeadlineMay 5, 2018
Primary ElectionMay 8, 2018
Polling Times6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Primary TypeOpen
General ElectionAugust 7, 2018
ResultsOhio Secretary of State
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


Candidates and election results

The following candidates ran in the special Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on May 8, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Special Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Danny O'Connor
Danny O'Connor
 
40.9
 
18,422
Image of Zach Scott
Zach Scott
 
16.8
 
7,544
Image of John Russell
John Russell
 
16.7
 
7,515
Image of Jackie Patton
Jackie Patton
 
13.6
 
6,111
Image of Ed Albertson
Ed Albertson
 
8.1
 
3,638
Image of Doug Wilson
Doug Wilson
 
3.9
 
1,771

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 45,001
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Toss-up Toss-upLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Toss-up Toss-upToss-upTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was , meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were the national average. This made Ohio's 12th Congressional District special the nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was . This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move points toward that party.[3]

District election history

2016

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Patrick Tiberi (R) defeated Ed Albertson (D) and Joe Manchik (Green) in the general election. All three candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[4]

U.S. House, Ohio District 12 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Tiberi Incumbent 66.6% 251,266
     Democratic Ed Albertson 29.8% 112,638
     Green Joe Manchik 3.6% 13,474
     N/A Write-in 0% 156
Total Votes 377,534
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

2014

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 12th Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Patrick Tiberi (R) defeated David Tibbs (D) and Bob Hart (G) in the general election.

U.S. House, Ohio District 12 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Tiberi Incumbent 68.1% 150,573
     Democratic David Tibbs 27.8% 61,360
     Green Bob Hart 4.1% 9,148
Total Votes 221,081
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

2012

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District elections, 2012

The 12th Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Patrick J. Tiberi won re-election in the district.[5]

U.S. House, Ohio District 12 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic James Reese 36.5% 134,605
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick J. Tiberi Incumbent 63.5% 233,869
Total Votes 368,474
Source: Ohio Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Patrick Tiberi won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Paula Brooks (D) and Travis Irvine (L) in the general election.[6]

U.S. House, Ohio District 12 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick J. Tiberi incumbent 55.8% 150,163
     Democratic Paula Brooks 41% 110,307
     Libertarian Travis M. Irvine 3.2% 8,710
Total Votes 269,180

2008

On November 4, 2008, Patrick Tiberi won re-election to the United States House. He defeated David Robinson (D) and Steven Linnaberry (L) in the general election.[7]

U.S. House, Ohio District 12 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Tiberi 54.8% 197,447
     Democratic David Robinson 42.2% 152,234
     Libertarian Steven Linnaberry 3% 10,707
Total Votes 360,388

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Ohio heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Ohio elections, 2018

Ohio held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Ohio
 OhioU.S.
Total population:11,605,090316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):40,8613,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:82.4%73.6%
Black/African American:12.2%12.6%
Asian:1.9%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.1%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,429$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.6%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Ohio.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Ohio had a population of 11,700,000 people, with its three largest cities being Columbus (pop. est. 860,000), Cleveland (pop. est. 390,000), and Cincinnati (pop. est. 300,000).[8][9]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Ohio from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Ohio Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Ohio every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Ohio 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 52.1% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 43.5% 8.6%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 47.7% 3.0%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.5% Republican Party John McCain 46.9% 4.6%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 48.7% 2.1%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 46.5% 3.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Ohio from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Ohio 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Rob Portman 58.0% Democratic Party Ted Strickland 37.2% 20.8%
2012 Democratic Party Sherrod Brown 50.7% Republican Party Josh Mandel 44.7% 6.0%
2010 Republican Party Rob Portman 56.8% Democratic Party Lee Fisher 39.4% 17.4%
2006 Democratic Party Sherrod Brown 56.2% Republican Party Mike DeWine 43.8% 12.4%
2004 Republican Party George Voinovich 63.9% Democratic Party Eric Fingerhut 36.1% 27.8%
2000 Republican Party Mike DeWine 59.9% Democratic Party Ted Celeste 35.9% 24.0%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Ohio.

Election results (Governor), Ohio 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party John Kasich 63.6% Democratic Party Ed Fitzgerald 33.0% 30.6%
2010 Republican Party John Kasich 49.0% Democratic Party Ted Strickland 47.0% 2.0%
2006 Democratic Party Ted Strickland 60.5% Republican Party Ken Blackwell 36.6% 23.9%
2002 Republican Party Robert Taft 57.8% Democratic Party Tim Hagan 38.3% 19.5%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Ohio in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Ohio 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 12 75.0% Democratic Party 4 25.0% R+8
2014 Republican Party 12 75.0% Democratic Party 4 25.0% R+8
2012 Republican Party 12 75.0% Democratic Party 4 25.0% R+8
2010 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2008 Republican Party 8 44.4% Democratic Party 10 55.6% D+2
2006 Republican Party 11 61.1% Democratic Party 7 38.9% R+4
2004 Republican Party 12 66.7% Democratic Party 6 33.3% R+6
2002 Republican Party 12 66.7% Democratic Party 6 33.3% R+6
2000 Republican Party 11 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Ohio Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Roll Call, "DCCC Adds 11 GOP Targets, including Paul Ryan," November 9, 2017
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, "Ohio 2016 March Primary Candidate List," accessed March 11, 2016
  5. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Ohio," accessed November 11, 2012
  6. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  7. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  8. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Ohio," accessed April 4, 2018
  9. ↑ Ohio Demographics, "Ohio Cities by Population," accessed April 4, 2018


Ohio's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Jon Husted (R)
Bernie Moreno (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
Bob Latta (R)
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
Republican Party (12)
Democratic Party (5)


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