Ohio's 14th Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


2022
2018
Ohio's 14th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 18, 2019
Primary: April 28, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
David Joyce (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in Ohio
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Ohio's 14th Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
Ohio elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 14th Congressional District of Ohio, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent David Joyce won election in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 14.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 18, 2019
April 28, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican David Joyce, who was first elected in 2012.

Ohio's 14th Congressional District is located in the northeast corner of the state. The district is made up of Ashtabula, Geauga, and Lake counties and sections of Cuyahoga, Portage, Summit and Trumbull counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Ohio's 14th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 44.9 39.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 53.9 60.1
Difference 9 20.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Ohio modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications could be submitted by fax or email for the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Explore Election Results site ad border blue.png

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 14

Incumbent David Joyce defeated Hillary O'Connor Mueri in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 14 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David Joyce
David Joyce (R)
 
60.1
 
238,864
Image of Hillary O'Connor Mueri
Hillary O'Connor Mueri (D)
 
39.9
 
158,586

Total votes: 397,450
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14

Hillary O'Connor Mueri advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14 on April 28, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Hillary O'Connor Mueri
Hillary O'Connor Mueri
 
100.0
 
48,107

Total votes: 48,107
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14

Incumbent David Joyce defeated Mark Pitrone in the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14 on April 28, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David Joyce
David Joyce
 
83.1
 
43,970
Mark Pitrone Candidate Connection
 
16.9
 
8,932

Total votes: 52,902
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nine of 88 Ohio counties—10.2 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Ashtabula County, Ohio 18.80% 12.78% 13.54%
Erie County, Ohio 9.48% 12.29% 13.86%
Montgomery County, Ohio 0.73% 4.62% 6.22%
Ottawa County, Ohio 19.51% 4.30% 6.24%
Portage County, Ohio 9.87% 5.52% 8.99%
Sandusky County, Ohio 22.58% 2.71% 4.64%
Stark County, Ohio 17.17% 0.47% 5.46%
Trumbull County, Ohio 6.22% 23.00% 22.43%
Wood County, Ohio 7.99% 4.84% 7.13%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Ohio with 51.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Ohio cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 93.3 percent of the time (28 out of 30 elections), more than any other state in the country. In that same time frame, Ohio supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 60 to 40 percent. Between 2000 and 2016, Ohio voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Ohio. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 35.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 33 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 34 points. Clinton won seven districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 60 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 17.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Ohio's 14th Congressional District the 188th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
David Joyce Republican Party $2,942,392 $2,526,145 $666,492 As of December 31, 2020
Hillary O'Connor Mueri Democratic Party $580,130 $574,899 $5,231 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Ohio's 14th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Ohio's 14th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 14

Incumbent David Joyce defeated Betsy Rader in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 14 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David Joyce
David Joyce (R)
 
55.2
 
169,809
Image of Betsy Rader
Betsy Rader (D)
 
44.8
 
137,549

Total votes: 307,358
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14

Betsy Rader advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Betsy Rader
Betsy Rader
 
100.0
 
36,077

Total votes: 36,077
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14

Incumbent David Joyce advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 14 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David Joyce
David Joyce
 
100.0
 
50,317

Total votes: 50,317
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

No Green candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Ohio's 14th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent David Joyce (R) defeated Michael Wager (D) in the general election. Joyce defeated Matt Lynch in the Republican primary and Wager defeated Alfred Mackey in the Democratic primary on March 15, 2016.[12]

U.S. House, Ohio District 14 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Joyce Incumbent 62.6% 219,191
     Democratic Michael Wager 37.4% 130,907
     N/A Write-in 0% 171
Total Votes 350,269
Source: Ohio Secretary of State


U.S. House, Ohio District 14 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Joyce Incumbent 64.5% 79,919
Matt Lynch 35.5% 44,004
Total Votes 123,923
Source: Ohio Secretary of State
U.S. House, Ohio District 14 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMichael Wager 66.6% 36,796
Alfred Mackey 33.4% 18,442
Total Votes 55,238
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

2014

See also: Ohio's 14th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 14th Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent David Joyce (R) defeated Michael Wager (D) and David Macko (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Ohio District 14 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Joyce Incumbent 63.3% 135,736
     Democratic Michael Wager 33% 70,856
     Libertarian David Macko 3.7% 7,988
Total Votes 214,580
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Ohio Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. Ohio Secretary of State, "Ohio 2016 March Primary Candidate List," accessed March 11, 2016


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
Bob Latta (R)
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
Republican Party (12)
Democratic Party (5)