Everything you need to know about ranked-choice voting in one spot. Click to learn more!

Ohio's 16th Congressional District election, 2018

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 16

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Anthony Gonzalez
Anthony Gonzalez (R)
 
56.7
 
170,029
Image of Susan Moran Palmer
Susan Moran Palmer (D)
 
43.3
 
129,681

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 299,710
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


2020 →
← 2016
Ohio's 16th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 7, 2018
Primary: May 8, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jim Renacci (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in Ohio
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+8
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Ohio's 16th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 12th (special)
Ohio elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 16th Congressional District of Ohio, held elections in 2018.

Anthony Gonzalez (R) faced Susan Moran Palmer (D) in the general election.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Jim Renacci (R), who was first elected in 2010. Renacci announced his 2018 campaign for governor on March 20, 2017.[1] On January 11, 2018, he dropped out of the gubernatorial race and entered Ohio's 2018 U.S. Senate race.

Ohio's 16th Congressional District is located in the north-central portion of the state and includes all of Wayne County and portions of Cuyahoga, Medina, Portage, Stark, and Summit counties.[2]

This page covered the general election in this race. Click here to read more about the Democratic Party primary election. Click here to read more about the Republican Party primary election.


Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 16

Anthony Gonzalez defeated Susan Moran Palmer in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 16 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Anthony Gonzalez
Anthony Gonzalez (R)
 
56.7
 
170,029
Image of Susan Moran Palmer
Susan Moran Palmer (D)
 
43.3
 
129,681

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 299,710
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 16

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 16 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Susan Moran Palmer
Susan Moran Palmer
 
34.6
 
14,507
Image of Grant Goodrich
Grant Goodrich
 
28.1
 
11,758
Image of TJ Mulloy
TJ Mulloy
 
15.5
 
6,511
Image of Mark Dent
Mark Dent
 
9.4
 
3,932
Image of Aaron Godfrey
Aaron Godfrey
 
7.9
 
3,313
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
John Wilson
 
4.5
 
1,876

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 41,897
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 16

Anthony Gonzalez defeated Christina Hagan and Michael Grusenmeyer in the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 16 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Anthony Gonzalez
Anthony Gonzalez
 
53.1
 
34,327
Image of Christina Hagan
Christina Hagan
 
40.8
 
26,380
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Michael Grusenmeyer
 
6.1
 
3,977

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 64,684
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Ohio's 16th Congressional District the 161st most Republican nationally.[3]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[4]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Susan Moran Palmer Democratic Party $473,098 $473,098 $0 As of December 6, 2018
Anthony Gonzalez Republican Party $1,932,525 $1,865,953 $66,572 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

Race ratings: Ohio's 16th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District history

2016

See also: Ohio's 16th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Jim Renacci (R) defeated Keith Mundy (D) in the general election. Both candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[5]

U.S. House, Ohio District 16 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Renacci Incumbent 65.3% 225,794
     Democratic Keith Mundy 34.7% 119,830
Total Votes 345,624
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

2014

See also: Ohio's 16th Congressional District elections, 2014
U.S. House, Ohio District 16 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Renacci Incumbent 63.7% 132,176
     Democratic Pete Crossland 36.3% 75,199
Total Votes 207,375
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

2012

See also: Ohio's 16th Congressional District elections, 2012
U.S. House, Ohio District 16 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Betty Sutton 48% 170,600
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJames B. Renacci Incumbent 52% 185,165
Total Votes 355,765
Source: Ohio Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jim Renacci won election to the United States House. He defeated John Boccieri (D), Jeffrey Blevins (L) and Robert Ross in the general election.[6]

U.S. House, Ohio District 16 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJames B. Renacci 52.1% 114,652
     Democratic John A. Boccieri 41.3% 90,833
     Libertarian Jeffrey J. Blevins 6.6% 14,585
     Write-in Robert L. Ross 0% 67
Total Votes 220,137

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nine of 88 Ohio counties—10.2 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Ashtabula County, Ohio 18.80% 12.78% 13.54%
Erie County, Ohio 9.48% 12.29% 13.86%
Montgomery County, Ohio 0.73% 4.62% 6.22%
Ottawa County, Ohio 19.51% 4.30% 6.24%
Portage County, Ohio 9.87% 5.52% 8.99%
Sandusky County, Ohio 22.58% 2.71% 4.64%
Stark County, Ohio 17.17% 0.47% 5.46%
Trumbull County, Ohio 6.22% 23.00% 22.43%
Wood County, Ohio 7.99% 4.84% 7.13%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Ohio with 51.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Ohio cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 93.3 percent of the time (28 out of 30 elections), more than any other state in the country. In that same time frame, Ohio supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 60 to 40 percent. Between 2000 and 2016, Ohio voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Ohio. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 35.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 33 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 34 points. Clinton won seven districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 60 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 17.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Ohio heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Ohio elections, 2018

Ohio held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Ohio
 OhioU.S.
Total population:11,605,090316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):40,8613,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:82.4%73.6%
Black/African American:12.2%12.6%
Asian:1.9%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.1%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,429$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.6%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Ohio.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Ohio had a population of 11,700,000 people, with its three largest cities being Columbus (pop. est. 860,000), Cleveland (pop. est. 390,000), and Cincinnati (pop. est. 300,000).[9][10]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Ohio from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Ohio Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Ohio every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Ohio 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 52.1% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 43.5% 8.6%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 47.7% 3.0%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.5% Republican Party John McCain 46.9% 4.6%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 48.7% 2.1%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 46.5% 3.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Ohio from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Ohio 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Rob Portman 58.0% Democratic Party Ted Strickland 37.2% 20.8%
2012 Democratic Party Sherrod Brown 50.7% Republican Party Josh Mandel 44.7% 6.0%
2010 Republican Party Rob Portman 56.8% Democratic Party Lee Fisher 39.4% 17.4%
2006 Democratic Party Sherrod Brown 56.2% Republican Party Mike DeWine 43.8% 12.4%
2004 Republican Party George Voinovich 63.9% Democratic Party Eric Fingerhut 36.1% 27.8%
2000 Republican Party Mike DeWine 59.9% Democratic Party Ted Celeste 35.9% 24.0%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Ohio.

Election results (Governor), Ohio 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party John Kasich 63.6% Democratic Party Ed Fitzgerald 33.0% 30.6%
2010 Republican Party John Kasich 49.0% Democratic Party Ted Strickland 47.0% 2.0%
2006 Democratic Party Ted Strickland 60.5% Republican Party Ken Blackwell 36.6% 23.9%
2002 Republican Party Robert Taft 57.8% Democratic Party Tim Hagan 38.3% 19.5%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Ohio in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Ohio 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 12 75.0% Democratic Party 4 25.0% R+8
2014 Republican Party 12 75.0% Democratic Party 4 25.0% R+8
2012 Republican Party 12 75.0% Democratic Party 4 25.0% R+8
2010 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2008 Republican Party 8 44.4% Democratic Party 10 55.6% D+2
2006 Republican Party 11 61.1% Democratic Party 7 38.9% R+4
2004 Republican Party 12 66.7% Democratic Party 6 33.3% R+6
2002 Republican Party 12 66.7% Democratic Party 6 33.3% R+6
2000 Republican Party 11 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Ohio Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Roll Call, "Who Could Replace Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci in Congress?" March 20, 2017
  2. ↑ Ohio Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  3. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  5. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, "Ohio 2016 March Primary Candidate List," accessed March 11, 2016
  6. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  9. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Ohio," accessed April 4, 2018
  10. ↑ Ohio Demographics, "Ohio Cities by Population," accessed April 4, 2018
v • e
2017-2018 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by StateCongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations



Ohio's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Jon Husted (R)
Bernie Moreno (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
Bob Latta (R)
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
Republican Party (12)
Democratic Party (5)

Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Ohio%27s_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2018&oldid=7617471"