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Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 10, 2020
Primary: June 30, 2020
Primary runoff: August 25, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Markwayne Mullin (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Oklahoma
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th
Oklahoma elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Oklahoma, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Markwayne Mullin won election in the general election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 10, 2020
June 30, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Markwayne Mullin, who was first elected in 2012.

Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, Hughes, Johnston, Latimer, Le Flore, Marshall, Mayes, McCurtain, McIntosh, Muskogee, Nowata, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Ottawa, Pittsburg, Pushmataha, and Sequoyah counties as well as a portion of Rogers County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 22.2 22
Republican candidate Republican Party 76.1 75
Difference 53.9 53

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Oklahoma modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Voters casting absentee ballots could submit copies of their identification in lieu of fulfilling the notarization requirement in the event of a state of emergency occurring within 45 days of an election. Individuals experiencing symptoms indicative of COVID-19, and individuals classified as vulnerable to infection, could cast an absentee ballot under the 'physical incapacitation' eligibility criterion.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2

Incumbent Markwayne Mullin defeated Danyell Lanier and Richard Castaldo in the general election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Markwayne Mullin
Markwayne Mullin (R)
 
75.0
 
216,511
Image of Danyell Lanier
Danyell Lanier (D) Candidate Connection
 
22.0
 
63,472
Image of Richard Castaldo
Richard Castaldo (L) Candidate Connection
 
3.0
 
8,544

Total votes: 288,527
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Danyell Lanier advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2

Incumbent Markwayne Mullin defeated Joseph Silk and Rhonda Hopkins in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2 on June 30, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Markwayne Mullin
Markwayne Mullin
 
79.9
 
53,149
Image of Joseph Silk
Joseph Silk Candidate Connection
 
12.7
 
8,445
Rhonda Hopkins
 
7.4
 
4,917

Total votes: 66,511
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Oklahoma. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Oklahoma with 65.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 28.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1904 and 2016, Oklahoma voted for the winning presidential candidate 72.4 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oklahoma supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 65.5 to 34.5 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oklahoma. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 8 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 11 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 27.7 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 93 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 90 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 42.2 points. Trump won 18 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+24, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 24 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District the 23rd most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.92. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.92 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Markwayne Mullin Republican Party $1,670,651 $1,088,384 $610,310 As of December 31, 2020
Danyell Lanier Democratic Party $42,023 $42,015 $7 As of December 31, 2020
Richard Castaldo Libertarian Party $0 $1,425 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2

Incumbent Markwayne Mullin defeated Jason Nichols, John Foreman, and Richard Castaldo in the general election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Markwayne Mullin
Markwayne Mullin (R)
 
65.0
 
140,451
Image of Jason Nichols
Jason Nichols (D)
 
30.1
 
65,021
Image of John Foreman
John Foreman (Independent)
 
3.0
 
6,390
Image of Richard Castaldo
Richard Castaldo (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.9
 
4,140

Total votes: 216,002
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2

Jason Nichols defeated Clay Padgett in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jason Nichols
Jason Nichols
 
56.8
 
19,562
Image of Clay Padgett
Clay Padgett
 
43.2
 
14,850

Total votes: 34,412
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2

Jason Nichols and Clay Padgett advanced to a runoff. They defeated Elijah McIntosh and Virginia Jenner in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jason Nichols
Jason Nichols
 
37.9
 
32,549
Image of Clay Padgett
Clay Padgett
 
24.2
 
20,833
Image of Elijah McIntosh
Elijah McIntosh Candidate Connection
 
19.0
 
16,359
Virginia Jenner
 
18.9
 
16,222

Total votes: 85,963
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2

Incumbent Markwayne Mullin defeated Jarrin Jackson, Brian Jackson, and John McCarthy in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Markwayne Mullin
Markwayne Mullin
 
54.1
 
32,654
Image of Jarrin Jackson
Jarrin Jackson
 
25.2
 
15,204
Image of Brian Jackson
Brian Jackson
 
11.5
 
6,907
John McCarthy
 
9.2
 
5,549

Total votes: 60,314
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Markwayne Mullin (R) defeated Joshua Harris-Till (D) and John McCarthy (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Mullin defeated Jarrin Jackson in the Republican primary, while Harris-Till defeated Paul Schiefelbein to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on June 28, 2016.[12][13][14]

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarkwayne Mullin Incumbent 70.6% 189,839
     Democratic Joshua Harris-Till 23.2% 62,387
     Independent John McCarthy 6.2% 16,644
Total Votes 268,870
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board


U.S. House, Oklahoma, District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMarkwayne Mullin Incumbent 63.4% 20,065
Jarrin Jackson 36.6% 11,580
Total Votes 31,645
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board


U.S. House, Oklahoma, District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJoshua Harris-Till 60% 31,681
Paul Schiefelbein 40% 21,152
Total Votes 52,833
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board

2014

See also: Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Oklahoma held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Markwayne Mullin (R) defeated Earl Everett (D) and Jon Douthitt (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarkwayne Mullin Incumbent 70% 110,925
     Democratic Earl Everett 24.6% 38,964
     Independent Jon Douthitt 5.4% 8,518
Total Votes 158,407
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Tom Cole (R)
District 5
Republican Party (7)