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Oklahoma House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Oklahoma House Elections | |
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| Primary | June 28, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 101 seats in the Oklahoma House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained four seats in the chamber after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the Oklahoma House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 28, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was April 15, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Oklahoma House of Representatives:
| Oklahoma House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 30 | 26 | |
| Republican Party | 71 | 75 | |
| Total | 101 | 101 | |
Retired incumbents
Thirty incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
2016 election competitiveness
Oklahoma sees improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Oklahoma performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Oklahoma State Senate, there were nine Democratic incumbents and 39 Republican incumbents. One incumbent faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were eight primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 30 Democratic incumbents and 71 Republican incumbents. Three state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 17 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Oklahoma can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified five notable Oklahoma state primary races in 2016, three of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Oklahoma races »
Primary contests
- Four Republicans competed for an open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Luke Ewing Doane ☑ Carl Newton ☐ Steve Day ☐ Rochelle Covington
- The Republican incumbent faced a primary challenger.
- ☐ Ken Walker (Inc.) ☑ Carol Bush
- District 73 featured a candidate rematch.
- ☑ Regina Goodwin (Inc.) ☐ Jonathan Townsend
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Candidates removed from the ballot
- Corey Perry (R), District 44
- Kelly Lynn (I), District 45
- Matt Von Tungeln (R), District 60
- Whitney Cole (R), District 72
- Brian Hill (R), District 87
- Dario Alvarado (R), District 89
- Paul Brewbaker (L), District 95
- Phillip Arnold (R), District 96
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Oklahoma House of Representatives in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 101 races in the Oklahoma House of Representatives in 2016, 73 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 30.7 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Republican candidates in the Oklahoma House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 75 races. In the 56 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.8 percent. Democrats won 26 races in 2016. In the 17 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.7 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Nine of the 73 contested races in 2016—12.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won five races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Oklahoma House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 2 R 8.8 percent District 4 D 2.6 percent District 16 R 7.6 percent District 33 R 9.5 percent District 45 D 2.7 percent District 62 R 5.3 percent District 78 D 4.1 percent District 85 D 8.4 percent District 87 D 3.2 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Oklahoma House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 69 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 44 winning Oklahoma House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 34.1 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Oklahoma House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 50 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 33 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 36.2 percent. 19 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 11 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 27.8 percent. |
Oklahoma House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 26 23.7 percent 19 27.8 percent 8 9 34.6 percent Republican 75 32.8 percent 50 36.2 percent 17 19 25.3 percent Total 101 30.7 percent 69 34.1 percent 25 28 27.7 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Oklahoma House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Oklahoma House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 21.0 percent |
| District 2 | R | 8.8 percent |
| District 3 | R | 33.0 percent |
| District 4 | D | 2.6 percent |
| District 5 | R | 41.8 percent |
| District 6 | D | Unopposed |
| District 7 | D | 12.9 percent |
| District 8 | R | 23.1 percent |
| District 9 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | R | 40.5 percent |
| District 11 | R | Unopposed |
| District 12 | R | 21.4 percent |
| District 13 | R | 11.4 percent |
| District 14 | R | 29.7 percent |
| District 15 | D | 16.9 percent |
| District 16 | R | 7.6 percent |
| District 17 | D | 15.4 percent |
| District 18 | D | Unopposed |
| District 19 | R | 17.0 percent |
| District 20 | R | 43.0 percent |
| District 21 | R | 52.0 percent |
| District 22 | R | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | 28.6 percent |
| District 24 | D | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | 36.8 percent |
| District 26 | R | 11.6 percent |
| District 27 | R | 51.8 percent |
| District 28 | R | 33.6 percent |
| District 29 | R | 31.8 percent |
| District 30 | R | Unopposed |
| District 31 | R | 49.7 percent |
| District 32 | R | 50.8 percent |
| District 33 | R | 9.5 percent |
| District 34 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | Unopposed |
| District 36 | R | 37.9 percent |
| District 37 | R | Unopposed |
| District 38 | R | Unopposed |
| District 39 | R | 53.0 percent |
| District 40 | R | 47.4 percent |
| District 41 | R | Unopposed |
| District 42 | R | 42.7 percent |
| District 43 | R | 36.9 percent |
| District 44 | D | Unopposed |
| District 45 | D | 2.7 percent |
| District 46 | R | 20.8 percent |
| District 47 | R | 56.2 percent |
| District 48 | R | Unopposed |
| District 49 | R | 50.6 percent |
| District 50 | R | 52.7 percent |
| District 51 | R | 55.9 percent |
| District 52 | R | Unopposed |
| District 53 | R | Unopposed |
| District 54 | R | 37.4 percent |
| District 55 | R | 17.3 percent |
| District 56 | D | 31.3 percent |
| District 57 | R | Unopposed |
| District 58 | R | Unopposed |
| District 59 | R | Unopposed |
| District 60 | R | 34.9 percent |
| District 61 | R | 70.7 percent |
| District 62 | R | 5.3 percent |
| District 63 | R | 28.4 percent |
| District 64 | R | 17.2 percent |
| District 65 | R | 45.3 percent |
| District 66 | R | 36.3 percent |
| District 67 | R | 43.1 percent |
| District 68 | R | Unopposed |
| District 69 | R | 39.9 percent |
| District 70 | R | 25.7 percent |
| District 71 | R | 11.3 percent |
| District 72 | D | Unopposed |
| District 73 | D | 77.3 percent |
| District 74 | R | 33.2 percent |
| District 75 | R | 19.1 percent |
| District 76 | R | 36.1 percent |
| District 77 | D | Unopposed |
| District 78 | D | 4.1 percent |
| District 79 | R | 30.3 percent |
| District 80 | R | 39.6 percent |
| District 81 | R | 31.6 percent |
| District 82 | R | 27.9 percent |
| District 83 | R | Unopposed |
| District 84 | R | 22.4 percent |
| District 85 | D | 8.4 percent |
| District 86 | D | 29.9 percent |
| District 87 | D | 3.2 percent |
| District 88 | D | Unopposed |
| District 89 | D | Unopposed |
| District 90 | R | Unopposed |
| District 91 | R | 45.0 percent |
| District 92 | D | 21.1 percent |
| District 93 | D | 19.7 percent |
| District 94 | D | 26.0 percent |
| District 95 | R | 13.0 percent |
| District 96 | R | Unopposed |
| District 97 | D | 47.0 percent |
| District 98 | R | Unopposed |
| District 99 | D | 63.5 percent |
| District 100 | R | 10.1 percent |
| District 101 | R | 29.5 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Oklahoma elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Oklahoma in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description |
| April 13, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period opens |
| April 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period closes |
| April 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | First quarter report due |
| June 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due |
| June 28, 2016 | Election date | Primary election |
| August 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-runoff report due |
| August 23, 2016 | Election date | Runoff primary election |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | Partial quarter report due |
| Sources: Oklahoma State Election Board, "2016 Statewide Candidate Filing Packet," accessed January 11, 2016 Oklahoma Ethics Commission, "2016 Reporting Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 | ||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 31 (30.6%) of the 101 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 10 Democrats and 21 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 70 (69.3%) of the 101 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Nineteen incumbents faced primary competition on June 28. Thirty seats were open, leaving 52 incumbents that advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Thirty incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 71 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, 19 Republicans and 11 Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Oklahoma House of Representatives has been a term-limited house of representatives since Oklahoma voters approved State Question 632 in 1990, as an initiated constitutional amendment. This amendment became part of Section 17A of Article V of the Oklahoma Constitution and limits the amount of time that an Oklahoma State Representative can serve to a cumulative total of 12 years in either or both chambers of the Oklahoma State Legislature.
There are 101 members of the Oklahoma House of Representatives. In 2016, nineteen of them who were current members, nine Democrats and ten Republicans, were ineligible to run again in November.
The state representatives who are term-limited in 2016 were:
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Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Oklahoma's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Oklahoma Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 24.6% | 24.6% | 37.3% | 28.8 | 25 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Oklahoma in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Oklahoma House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 198 | $10,360,195 |
| 2012 | 199 | $10,571,515 |
| 2010 | 191 | $11,222,595 |
| 2008 | 209 | $10,284,384 |
| 2006 | 222 | $10,276,535 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Oklahoma, at $52,324 per candidate, is ranked 17 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article 5, Section 17 of the Oklahoma Constitution states: "Members of the Senate shall be at least twenty-five years of age, and members of the House of Representatives twenty-one years of age at the time of their election. They shall be qualified electors in their respective counties or districts and shall reside in their respective counties or districts during their term of office."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Oklahoma," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
