Help us improve in just 2 minutes—share your thoughts in our reader survey.

Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022 →
← 2018
Oregon's 2nd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 10, 2020
Primary: May 19, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Greg Walden (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Oregon
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Oregon's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th
Oregon elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2020.

Cliff Bentz won election in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 10, 2020
May 19, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Greg Walden, who was first elected in 1998.

Oregon's 2nd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state. The district includes Baker, Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Wasco, and Wheeler counties and a part of Josephine County.[2]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Oregon's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 42.1 36.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 55.6 59.9
Difference 13.5 23

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Oregon did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Explore Election Results site ad border blue.png

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Cliff Bentz defeated Alex Spenser and Robert Werch in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Cliff Bentz
Cliff Bentz (R)
 
59.9
 
273,835
Image of Alex Spenser
Alex Spenser (D) Candidate Connection
 
36.9
 
168,881
Image of Robert Werch
Robert Werch (L) Candidate Connection
 
3.1
 
14,094
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
623

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 457,433
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Alex Spenser defeated Nick Heuertz, Chris Vaughn, Jack Howard, and John Holm in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Alex Spenser
Alex Spenser Candidate Connection
 
32.1
 
23,482
Image of Nick Heuertz
Nick Heuertz Candidate Connection
 
31.0
 
22,685
Image of Chris Vaughn
Chris Vaughn Candidate Connection
 
18.2
 
13,351
Image of Jack Howard
Jack Howard Candidate Connection
 
8.3
 
6,047
Image of John Holm
John Holm
 
8.1
 
5,908
 Other/Write-in votes
 
2.4
 
1,734

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 73,207
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Cliff Bentz
Cliff Bentz
 
31.3
 
37,488
Image of Knute Buehler
Knute Buehler
 
22.1
 
26,405
Image of Jason Atkinson
Jason Atkinson
 
19.5
 
23,274
Image of Jimmy Crumpacker
Jimmy Crumpacker
 
18.0
 
21,507
Image of Travis Fager
Travis Fager Candidate Connection
 
3.6
 
4,265
Image of Jeff Smith
Jeff Smith Candidate Connection
 
2.1
 
2,539
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Justin Livingston
 
1.1
 
1,350
Image of Mark Roberts
Mark Roberts Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
1,336
Image of David Campbell
David Campbell Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
418
Image of Glenn Carey
Glenn Carey
 
0.2
 
283
Image of Kenneth Medenbach
Kenneth Medenbach Candidate Connection
 
0.2
 
267
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
450

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source 1 Source 2

Total votes: 119,582
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Robert Werch advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on July 6, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Robert Werch
Robert Werch (L) Candidate Connection

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Columbia County, Oregon 11.46% 5.16% 12.02%
Tillamook County, Oregon 5.58% 4.86% 9.89%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Oregon's 2nd Congressional District the 120th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.15. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.15 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Alex Spenser Democratic Party $25,855 $25,525 $330 As of December 31, 2020
Cliff Bentz Republican Party $1,452,634 $1,363,581 $89,054 As of December 31, 2020
Robert Werch Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 2nd Congressional District candidates in Oregon in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Oregon, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Oregon 2nd Congressional District Major party 0 N/A $100.00 Fixed number 3/10/2020 Source
Oregon 2nd Congressional District Unaffiliated 4,050 1% of votes cast in the district for president N/A N/A 8/25/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Incumbent Greg Walden defeated Jamie McLeod-Skinner and Mark Roberts in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Greg Walden
Greg Walden (R)
 
56.3
 
207,597
Image of Jamie McLeod-Skinner
Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D)
 
39.4
 
145,298
Image of Mark Roberts
Mark Roberts (Independent Party of Oregon) Candidate Connection
 
4.2
 
15,536
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
278

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 368,709
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jamie McLeod-Skinner
Jamie McLeod-Skinner
 
43.7
 
25,351
Image of Jennifer Neahring
Jennifer Neahring
 
24.2
 
14,020
Image of Jim Crary
Jim Crary
 
11.7
 
6,774
Image of Timothy White
Timothy White
 
6.0
 
3,469
Image of Raz Mason
Raz Mason
 
5.4
 
3,137
Image of Eric Burnette
Eric Burnette
 
4.7
 
2,734
Image of Michael Byrne
Michael Byrne
 
4.4
 
2,546

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 58,031
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Incumbent Greg Walden defeated Paul Romero and Randy Pollock in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Greg Walden
Greg Walden
 
77.6
 
71,543
Image of Paul Romero
Paul Romero
 
16.5
 
15,181
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Randy Pollock
 
6.0
 
5,514

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 92,238
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Independent Party of Oregon primary election

Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Mark Roberts advanced from the Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Roberts
Mark Roberts Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
3,441

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 3,441
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Greg Walden (R) defeated Jim Crary (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Walden defeated Paul Romero in the Republican primary on May 17, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, Oregon District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Walden Incumbent 71.7% 272,952
     Democratic Jim Crary 28% 106,640
     N/A Misc. 0.3% 1,147
Total Votes 380,739
Source: Oregon Secretary of State


U.S. House, Oregon District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Walden Incumbent 80.1% 85,039
Paul Romero 19.9% 21,099
Total Votes 106,138
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

2014

See also: Oregon's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Greg Walden (R) defeated Aelea Christofferson (D) and Sharon Durbin (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oregon District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Walden Incumbent 70.4% 202,374
     Democratic Aelea Christofferson 25.7% 73,785
     Libertarian Sharon Durbin 3.6% 10,491
     Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 0.3% 775
Total Votes 287,425
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Oregon is a vote-by-mail state. Polling hours apply to vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
  2. ↑ Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
  14. ↑ The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016


Oregon's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Jeff Merkley (D)
Ron Wyden (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Val Hoyle (D)
District 5
District 6
Democratic Party (7)
Republican Party (1)


v • e
2019-2020 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona (special) • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia (special) • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming
CongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Oregon%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2020&oldid=8519979"