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Oregon's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Earl Blumenauer
Earl Blumenauer (D)
 
72.6
 
279,019
Image of Tom Harrison
Tom Harrison (R)
 
19.8
 
76,187
Image of Marc Koller
Marc Koller (Independent Party of Oregon) Candidate Connection
 
5.6
 
21,352
Image of Gary Dye
Gary Dye (L)
 
1.5
 
5,767
Image of Michael P. Marsh
Michael P. Marsh (Constitution Party)
 
0.4
 
1,487
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
514

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 384,326
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020 →
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Oregon's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 6, 2018
Primary: May 15, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Earl Blumenauer (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Oregon
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+24
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Oregon's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th
Oregon elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Earl Blumenauer (D), who was first elected in 1996.

Oregon's 3rd Congressional District is located in the northeastern corner of the state and includes portions of Clackamas and Multnomah counties.[1]


Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Incumbent Earl Blumenauer defeated Tom Harrison, Marc Koller, Gary Dye, and Michael P. Marsh in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Earl Blumenauer
Earl Blumenauer (D)
 
72.6
 
279,019
Image of Tom Harrison
Tom Harrison (R)
 
19.8
 
76,187
Image of Marc Koller
Marc Koller (Independent Party of Oregon) Candidate Connection
 
5.6
 
21,352
Image of Gary Dye
Gary Dye (L)
 
1.5
 
5,767
Image of Michael P. Marsh
Michael P. Marsh (Constitution Party)
 
0.4
 
1,487
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
514

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 384,326
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Incumbent Earl Blumenauer defeated Ben Lavine, Charles Rand Barnett, and Eric Hafner in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Earl Blumenauer
Earl Blumenauer
 
91.0
 
91,226
Image of Ben Lavine
Ben Lavine
 
6.0
 
6,008
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Charles Rand Barnett
 
1.6
 
1,586
Image of Eric Hafner
Eric Hafner Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
1,377

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 100,197
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Tom Harrison advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
✔
Image of Tom Harrison
Tom Harrison

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Independent Party of Oregon primary election

Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Marc Koller defeated David Walker in the Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marc Koller
Marc Koller Candidate Connection
 
55.7
 
930
Image of David Walker
David Walker
 
44.3
 
741

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 1,671
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+24, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 24 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Oregon's 3rd Congressional District the 48th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign contributions

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Earl Blumenauer Democratic Party $1,490,753 $1,628,250 $892,433 As of December 31, 2018
Tom Harrison Republican Party $770 $304 $466 As of December 31, 2018
Michael P. Marsh Constitution Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Marc Koller Independent Party of Oregon $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Gary Dye Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Oregon's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Earl Blumenauer (D) defeated David Walker (Independent) and David Delk (Progressive) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No Republican candidates filed to run in the race.[4][5]

U.S. House, Oregon District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEarl Blumenauer Incumbent 71.8% 274,687
     Independent David Walker 20.4% 78,154
     Progressive David Delk 7.3% 27,978
     N/A Misc. 0.4% 1,536
Total Votes 382,355
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

2014

See also: Oregon's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Earl Blumenauer (D) defeated James Buchal (Republican, independent and Constitution Party), Jeffrey Langan (L), Michael Meo (Pacific Green Party) and David Walker (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oregon District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEarl Blumenauer Incumbent 72.3% 211,748
     Republican James Buchal 19.6% 57,424
     Libertarian Jeffrey Langan 2.2% 6,381
     Green Michael Meo 4.1% 12,106
     Independent David Walker 1.4% 4,009
     Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 0.4% 1,089
Total Votes 292,757
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Columbia County, Oregon 11.46% 5.16% 12.02%
Tillamook County, Oregon 5.58% 4.86% 9.89%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Oregon heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of September 2018, Democrats held three of 11 state executive positions, Republicans held one, and the remaining positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of Oregon was Democrat Kate Brown. The state held an election for governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Oregon State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Oregon was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Oregon elections, 2018

Oregon held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Oregon
 OregonU.S.
Total population:4,024,634316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):95,9883,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:85.1%73.6%
Black/African American:1.8%12.6%
Asian:4%5.1%
Native American:1.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.4%0.2%
Two or more:4.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:12.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:30.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$51,243$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Oregon.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Oregon's three largest cities were Portland (pop. est. 647,805), Salem (pop. est. 169,798), and Eugene (pop. est. 168,916).[8][9]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Oregon from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Oregon Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Oregon every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Oregon 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 50.1% Republican Party Donald Trump 39.1% 11.0%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 42.1% 12.1%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 56.7% Republican Party John McCain 40.4% 16.3%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.3% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.2% 4.1%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.0% Republican Party George W. Bush 46.5% 0.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Oregon from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Oregon 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Ron Wyden 56.6% Republican Party Mark Callahan 33.4% 23.2%
2014 Democratic Party Jeff Merkley 55.7% Republican Party Monica Wehby 36.9% 18.8%
2010 Democratic Party Ron Wyden 57.2% Republican Party Jim Huffman 39.3% 17.9%
2008 Democratic Party Jeff Merkley 48.9% Republican Party Gordon Smith 45.6% 3.3%
2004 Democratic Party Ron Wyden 63.4% Republican Party Al King 31.8% 32.6%
2002 Republican Party Gordon Smith 56.2% Democratic Party Bill Bradbury 39.6% 16.6%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Oregon.

Election results (Governor), Oregon 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Kate Brown 50.9% Republican Party Bud Pierce 43.1% 7.8%
2014 Democratic Party John Kitzhaber 49.9% Republican Party Dennis Richardson 44.1% 5.8%
2010 Democratic Party John Kitzhaber 49.3% Republican Party Chris Dudleyy 47.8% 1.5%
2006 Democratic Party Ted Kulongoski 50.7% Republican Party Ron Saxton 42.8% 7.9%
2002 Democratic Party Ted Kulongoski 49.0% Republican Party Kevin Mannix 46.2% 2.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Oregon in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Oregon 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2014 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2012 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2010 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2008 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2006 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2004 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2002 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3
2000 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Oregon Party Control: 1992-2025
Seventeen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
  5. ↑ The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ Oregon Demographics, "Oregon Cities by Population," accessed September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Oregon," accessed September 6, 2018
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