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Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2020

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Oregon's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 10, 2020
Primary: May 19, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Peter DeFazio (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Oregon
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Oregon's 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th
Oregon elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Peter DeFazio won election in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 10, 2020
May 19, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Peter DeFazio, who was first elected in 1986.

DeFazio defeated Doyle Canning in the May 19, 2020, Democratic primary, receiving 84 percent of the vote to Canning's 15 percent. Republican nominee Alek Skarlatos defeated Nelson Ijih in the Republican primary, receiving 86 percent of the vote to Ijih's 13 percent.

During the 2016 presidential election, the 4th District supported Hillary Clinton (D) over Donald Trump by 0.1 percentage point with Clinton receiving 46.1 percent of the vote to Trump's 46 percent, a decrease from previous presidential elections. In 2008, Barack Obama (D) received 54 percent of the vote to John McCain's (R) 43 percent and, in 2012, Obama received 52 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney's 45 percent.[2]

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Oregon's 4th Congressional District was located in the southwest portion of the state. Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, and Linn counties, along with areas of Benton and Josephine counties, made up the district.[3]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Oregon's 4th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 50.7 51.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 46.7 46.2
Difference 4 5.3

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Oregon did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Incumbent Peter DeFazio defeated Alek Skarlatos and Daniel Hoffay in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter DeFazio
Peter DeFazio (D / Working Families Party / Independent)
 
51.5
 
240,950
Image of Alek Skarlatos
Alek Skarlatos (R)
 
46.2
 
216,081
Image of Daniel Hoffay
Daniel Hoffay (Pacific Green Party)
 
2.2
 
10,118
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
556

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 467,705
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Incumbent Peter DeFazio defeated Doyle Canning in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter DeFazio
Peter DeFazio
 
83.7
 
96,077
Image of Doyle Canning
Doyle Canning
 
15.4
 
17,701
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.8
 
974

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 114,752
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Alek Skarlatos defeated Nelson Ijih in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Alek Skarlatos
Alek Skarlatos
 
86.4
 
70,599
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Nelson Ijih
 
12.6
 
10,325
 Other/Write-in votes
 
1.0
 
780

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 81,704
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pacific Green Party convention

Pacific Green Party convention for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Daniel Hoffay advanced from the Pacific Green Party convention for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on June 6, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Daniel Hoffay
Daniel Hoffay (Pacific Green Party)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Columbia County, Oregon 11.46% 5.16% 12.02%
Tillamook County, Oregon 5.58% 4.86% 9.89%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Oregon's 4th Congressional District the 197th most Democratic nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[7]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[8] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[9] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Peter DeFazio Independent, Working Families Party, Democratic Party $5,286,362 $5,884,593 $517,595 As of December 31, 2020
Alek Skarlatos Republican Party $5,462,321 $5,338,964 $123,357 As of December 31, 2020
Daniel Hoffay Pacific Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Alek Skarlatos

Opposing DeFazio


"Put Oregon First" - Skarlatos campaign ad, accessed October 6, 2020

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 4th Congressional District candidates in Oregon in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Oregon, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Oregon 4th Congressional District Major party 0 N/A $100.00 Fixed number 3/10/2020 Source
Oregon 4th Congressional District Unaffiliated 4,163 1% of votes cast in the district for president N/A N/A 8/25/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Incumbent Peter DeFazio defeated Art Robinson, Michael Beilstein, and Richard Jacobson in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter DeFazio
Peter DeFazio (D)
 
56.0
 
208,710
Image of Art Robinson
Art Robinson (R)
 
40.9
 
152,414
Image of Michael Beilstein
Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green Party)
 
1.6
 
5,956
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Richard Jacobson (L)
 
1.4
 
5,370
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
443

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 372,893
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Incumbent Peter DeFazio defeated Daniel Arcangel in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter DeFazio
Peter DeFazio
 
92.2
 
78,575
Image of Daniel Arcangel
Daniel Arcangel
 
7.8
 
6,672

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 85,247
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Art Robinson defeated Court Boice, Jo Rae Perkins, Michael Polen, and Stefan Strek in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Art Robinson
Art Robinson
 
45.9
 
30,384
Image of Court Boice
Court Boice
 
23.8
 
15,773
Image of Jo Rae Perkins
Jo Rae Perkins Candidate Connection
 
21.0
 
13,892
Image of Michael Polen
Michael Polen
 
6.0
 
3,970
Image of Stefan Strek
Stefan Strek
 
3.4
 
2,244

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 66,263
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Peter DeFazio (D) defeated Art Robinson (R), Gil Guthrie (L), and Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green) in the general election on November 8, 2016. DeFazio defeated Joseph McKinney in the Democratic primary, while Robinson defeated Jo Rae Perkins to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.[14][15]

U.S. House, Oregon District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter DeFazio Incumbent 55.5% 220,628
     Republican Art Robinson 39.7% 157,743
     Pacific Green Michael Beilstein 3.1% 12,194
     Libertarian Gil Guthrie 1.6% 6,527
     N/A Misc. 0.1% 476
Total Votes 397,568
Source: Oregon Secretary of State


U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPeter DeFazio Incumbent 92% 113,816
Joseph McKinney 8% 9,894
Total Votes 123,710
Source: Oregon Secretary of State
U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngArt Robinson 67.8% 55,557
Jo Rae Perkins 32.2% 26,375
Total Votes 81,932
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

2014

See also: Oregon's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Peter DeFazio (Democratic, Working Families and Progressive Party), defeated Art Robinson (Republican and Constitution Party), David Chester (L) and Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green Party) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oregon District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter DeFazio Incumbent 58.6% 181,624
     Republican Art Robinson 37.6% 116,534
     Libertarian David Chester 1.5% 4,676
     Green Michael Beilstein 2.2% 6,863
     Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 0.2% 482
Total Votes 310,179
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Oregon is a vote-by-mail state. Polling hours apply to vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008," accessed June 24, 2020
  3. ↑ Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  6. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  9. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
  15. ↑ The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016


Oregon's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Jeff Merkley (D)
Ron Wyden (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Val Hoyle (D)
District 5
District 6
Democratic Party (7)
Republican Party (1)


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