Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Oregon District 5
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Kurt Schrader (D) | 55.0 | 197,187 |
![]() | Mark Callahan (R) | 41.8 | 149,887 | |
Dan Souza (L) | 1.7 | 6,054 | ||
Marvin Sandnes (Pacific Green Party) | 1.3 | 4,802 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 539 |
Total votes: 358,469 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
![]() | ||||
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- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: N/A (all-mail elections)
- Voter ID: N/A
- Poll times: N/A
2020 →
← 2016
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Oregon's 5th Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: March 6, 2018 |
Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Kurt Schrader (Democrat) |
How to vote |
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail) Voting in Oregon |
Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th Oregon elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Kurt Schrader (D), who was first elected in 2008.
Oregon's 5th Congressional District is located in the northwestern portion of the state. The district includes Lincoln, Marion, Polk, and Tillamook counties. Areas of Benton, Clackamas, and Multnomah counties also lie within the district.[1]
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Oregon District 5
Incumbent Kurt Schrader defeated Mark Callahan, Dan Souza, and Marvin Sandnes in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 5 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Kurt Schrader (D) | 55.0 | 197,187 |
![]() | Mark Callahan (R) | 41.8 | 149,887 | |
Dan Souza (L) | 1.7 | 6,054 | ||
Marvin Sandnes (Pacific Green Party) | 1.3 | 4,802 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 539 |
Total votes: 358,469 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 5
Incumbent Kurt Schrader defeated Peter Wright in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 5 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Kurt Schrader | 86.8 | 59,196 |
![]() | Peter Wright ![]() | 13.2 | 9,002 |
Total votes: 68,198 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 5
Mark Callahan defeated Joey Nations and Robert Reynolds in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 5 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Mark Callahan | 62.4 | 33,933 |
![]() | Joey Nations | 20.8 | 11,300 | |
![]() | Robert Reynolds | 16.8 | 9,120 |
Total votes: 54,353 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Oregon's 5th Congressional District the 195th most Democratic nationally.[2]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[3]
Race background
Oregon's 5th District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[4]
Campaign contributions
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kurt Schrader | Democratic Party | $2,080,538 | $862,329 | $2,420,381 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Mark Callahan | Republican Party | $35,313 | $35,313 | $0 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Dan Souza | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Marvin Sandnes | Pacific Green Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll | Poll sponsor | Callahan | Schrader | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
Gravis Marketing October 8, 2018 | The Callahan campaign | 56% | 33% | 11% | +/-5.2 | 359 | |||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Kurt Schrader (D) defeated Colm Willis (R) and Marvin Sandnes (Pacific Green) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Schrader defeated Dave McTeague in the Democratic primary, while Willis defeated Seth Allan, Earl Rainey, and Ben West to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.[5][6]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | ![]() |
53.5% | 199,505 | |
Republican | Colm Willis | 43% | 160,443 | |
Pacific Green | Marvin Sandnes | 3.4% | 12,542 | |
N/A | Misc. | 0.2% | 618 | |
Total Votes | 373,108 | |||
Source: Oregon Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
72% | 72,634 | ||
Dave McTeague | 28% | 28,184 | ||
Total Votes | 100,818 | |||
Source: Oregon Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
58.1% | 40,568 | ||
Ben West | 21% | 14,696 | ||
Seth Allan | 15.4% | 10,779 | ||
Earl Rainey | 5.4% | 3,783 | ||
Total Votes | 69,826 | |||
Source: Oregon Secretary of State |
2014
The 5th Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Kurt Schrader (D) defeated Tootie Smith (R), Raymond Baldwin (Constitution Party), Daniel Souza (L) and Marvin Sannes (I) in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | ![]() |
53.7% | 150,944 | |
Republican | Tootie Smith | 39.3% | 110,332 | |
Constitution | Raymond Baldwin | 2.2% | 6,208 | |
Libertarian | Daniel Souza | 1.8% | 5,198 | |
Independent | Marvin Sannes | 2.7% | 7,674 | |
Write-in | Write-in candidates | 0.3% | 732 | |
Total Votes | 281,088 | |||
Source: Oregon Secretary of State |
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Columbia County, Oregon | 11.46% | 5.16% | 12.02% | ||||
Tillamook County, Oregon | 5.58% | 4.86% | 9.89% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1 | 37.15% | 59.91% | R+22.8 | 30.45% | 63.42% | R+33 | R |
2 | 35.86% | 61.05% | R+25.2 | 27.65% | 65.58% | R+37.9 | R |
3 | 38.59% | 58.64% | R+20.1 | 32.16% | 60.97% | R+28.8 | R |
4 | 34.06% | 63.51% | R+29.4 | 27.52% | 66.33% | R+38.8 | R |
5 | 60.76% | 35.69% | D+25.1 | 58.86% | 33.66% | D+25.2 | D |
6 | 43.64% | 53.69% | R+10 | 40.10% | 52.36% | R+12.3 | R |
7 | 40.94% | 55.86% | R+14.9 | 32.79% | 59.77% | R+27 | R |
8 | 68.36% | 28.03% | D+40.3 | 65.84% | 26.50% | D+39.3 | D |
9 | 49.44% | 47.54% | D+1.9 | 40.23% | 52.56% | R+12.3 | D |
10 | 55.67% | 41.16% | D+14.5 | 47.25% | 45.02% | D+2.2 | D |
11 | 55.39% | 41.57% | D+13.8 | 50.86% | 41.87% | D+9 | D |
12 | 56.62% | 40.21% | D+16.4 | 49.34% | 41.70% | D+7.6 | D |
13 | 63.69% | 32.89% | D+30.8 | 62.35% | 29.39% | D+33 | D |
14 | 57.20% | 40.05% | D+17.1 | 51.09% | 40.77% | D+10.3 | D |
15 | 44.80% | 52.00% | R+7.2 | 39.46% | 51.33% | R+11.9 | R |
16 | 68.67% | 27.22% | D+41.4 | 69.48% | 20.98% | D+48.5 | D |
17 | 36.23% | 60.65% | R+24.4 | 27.71% | 64.47% | R+36.8 | R |
18 | 38.39% | 59.05% | R+20.7 | 33.45% | 58.97% | R+25.5 | R |
19 | 44.87% | 52.96% | R+8.1 | 42.46% | 50.19% | R+7.7 | R |
20 | 50.99% | 46.50% | D+4.5 | 49.71% | 42.02% | D+7.7 | D |
21 | 57.81% | 39.39% | D+18.4 | 53.19% | 38.56% | D+14.6 | D |
22 | 54.27% | 42.99% | D+11.3 | 52.07% | 40.38% | D+11.7 | D |
23 | 43.15% | 54.01% | R+10.9 | 36.74% | 55.52% | R+18.8 | R |
24 | 47.77% | 49.67% | R+1.9 | 44.83% | 46.73% | R+1.9 | R |
25 | 43.43% | 54.28% | R+10.8 | 40.87% | 50.61% | R+9.7 | R |
26 | 49.24% | 48.65% | D+0.6 | 51.80% | 40.43% | D+11.4 | R |
27 | 62.96% | 34.72% | D+28.2 | 66.84% | 25.48% | D+41.4 | D |
28 | 59.90% | 37.33% | D+22.6 | 59.87% | 31.58% | D+28.3 | D |
29 | 54.53% | 42.09% | D+12.4 | 52.00% | 38.65% | D+13.4 | D |
30 | 56.91% | 40.02% | D+16.9 | 57.59% | 33.00% | D+24.6 | D |
31 | 52.12% | 44.60% | D+7.5 | 44.06% | 47.64% | R+3.6 | D |
32 | 52.75% | 44.09% | D+8.7 | 45.64% | 46.09% | R+0.5 | D |
33 | 65.90% | 31.83% | D+34.1 | 72.64% | 20.98% | D+51.7 | D |
34 | 63.85% | 33.25% | D+30.6 | 67.22% | 24.53% | D+42.7 | D |
35 | 60.70% | 36.93% | D+23.8 | 63.83% | 28.39% | D+35.4 | D |
36 | 79.34% | 17.38% | D+62 | 82.77% | 11.05% | D+71.7 | D |
37 | 52.79% | 45.42% | D+7.4 | 57.22% | 35.31% | D+21.9 | R |
38 | 65.77% | 32.10% | D+33.7 | 71.88% | 22.01% | D+49.9 | D |
39 | 42.78% | 55.07% | R+12.3 | 38.83% | 54.39% | R+15.6 | R |
40 | 53.15% | 44.33% | D+8.8 | 49.14% | 42.74% | D+6.4 | D |
41 | 70.80% | 26.25% | D+44.5 | 70.28% | 22.34% | D+47.9 | D |
42 | 87.06% | 7.84% | D+79.2 | 87.10% | 6.08% | D+81 | D |
43 | 89.37% | 6.92% | D+82.5 | 89.00% | 5.40% | D+83.6 | D |
44 | 82.65% | 13.55% | D+69.1 | 81.66% | 11.41% | D+70.2 | D |
45 | 79.69% | 17.31% | D+62.4 | 80.42% | 13.55% | D+66.9 | D |
46 | 79.45% | 16.72% | D+62.7 | 80.06% | 13.10% | D+67 | D |
47 | 66.01% | 31.23% | D+34.8 | 63.57% | 29.15% | D+34.4 | D |
48 | 61.00% | 36.01% | D+25 | 59.27% | 32.83% | D+26.4 | D |
49 | 57.08% | 40.26% | D+16.8 | 51.57% | 40.49% | D+11.1 | D |
50 | 54.82% | 42.75% | D+12.1 | 51.27% | 41.12% | D+10.2 | D |
51 | 53.04% | 44.74% | D+8.3 | 50.91% | 41.90% | D+9 | D |
52 | 51.53% | 45.97% | D+5.6 | 46.57% | 45.78% | D+0.8 | R |
53 | 40.98% | 56.77% | R+15.8 | 39.36% | 53.26% | R+13.9 | R |
54 | 54.38% | 42.95% | D+11.4 | 55.64% | 35.94% | D+19.7 | R |
55 | 32.25% | 65.13% | R+32.9 | 24.43% | 69.92% | R+45.5 | R |
56 | 28.24% | 69.10% | R+40.9 | 23.76% | 69.30% | R+45.5 | R |
57 | 32.89% | 64.08% | R+31.2 | 27.24% | 65.33% | R+38.1 | R |
58 | 33.98% | 63.22% | R+29.2 | 27.37% | 65.78% | R+38.4 | R |
59 | 42.10% | 55.62% | R+13.5 | 36.82% | 56.07% | R+19.3 | R |
60 | 26.45% | 70.57% | R+44.1 | 20.38% | 73.39% | R+53 | R |
Total | 54.64% | 42.46% | D+12.2 | 51.96% | 40.57% | D+11.4 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Oregon heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in Oregon.
- Democrats held four of five U.S. House seats in Oregon.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Democrats held three of 11 state executive positions, Republicans held one, and the remaining positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of Oregon was Democrat Kate Brown. The state held an election for governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Democrats controlled both chambers of the Oregon State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Oregon was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.
2018 elections
- See also: Oregon elections, 2018
Oregon held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- 18 U.S. House seats
- Governor
- One lower state executive position
- 17 of 30 state Senate seats
- 60 state House seats
- Municipal elections in Portland and Multnomah County
Demographics
Demographic data for Oregon | ||
---|---|---|
Oregon | U.S. | |
Total population: | 4,024,634 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 95,988 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 85.1% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 1.8% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 4% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 1.2% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 4.1% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 12.3% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 89.8% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 30.8% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $51,243 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 18.4% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Oregon. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, Oregon's three largest cities were Portland (pop. est. 647,805), Salem (pop. est. 169,798), and Eugene (pop. est. 168,916).[9][10]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Oregon from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Oregon Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Oregon every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Oregon 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
50.1% | ![]() |
39.1% | 11.0% |
2012 | ![]() |
54.2% | ![]() |
42.1% | 12.1% |
2008 | ![]() |
56.7% | ![]() |
40.4% | 16.3% |
2004 | ![]() |
51.3% | ![]() |
47.2% | 4.1% |
2000 | ![]() |
47.0% | ![]() |
46.5% | 0.5% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Oregon from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Oregon 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
56.6% | ![]() |
33.4% | 23.2% |
2014 | ![]() |
55.7% | ![]() |
36.9% | 18.8% |
2010 | ![]() |
57.2% | ![]() |
39.3% | 17.9% |
2008 | ![]() |
48.9% | ![]() |
45.6% | 3.3% |
2004 | ![]() |
63.4% | ![]() |
31.8% | 32.6% |
2002 | ![]() |
56.2% | ![]() |
39.6% | 16.6% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Oregon.
Election results (Governor), Oregon 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
50.9% | ![]() |
43.1% | 7.8% |
2014 | ![]() |
49.9% | ![]() |
44.1% | 5.8% |
2010 | ![]() |
49.3% | ![]() |
47.8% | 1.5% |
2006 | ![]() |
50.7% | ![]() |
42.8% | 7.9% |
2002 | ![]() |
49.0% | ![]() |
46.2% | 2.8% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Oregon in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Oregon Party Control: 1992-2025
Seventeen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | S | S | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- Oregon's 5th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Oregon's 5th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Oregon, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
- ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Oregon Demographics, "Oregon Cities by Population," accessed September 6, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Oregon," accessed September 6, 2018