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Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mike Kelly
Mike Kelly (R) Candidate Connection
 
51.6
 
135,348
Image of Ronald DiNicola
Ronald DiNicola (D)
 
47.3
 
124,109
Image of Ebert Beeman
Ebert Beeman (L)
 
1.1
 
2,939

Total votes: 262,396
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020
2016
Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 20, 2018
Primary: May 15, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+8
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th7th (special)15th (special)18th (special)
Pennsylvania elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 16th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Mike Kelly (R), who was first elected in 2010.


Results of 2018 redistricting

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling.

The chart below compares this new district with the old district that was the most geographically similar to it.

Old district[1] Prior incumbent Prior 2016 presidential result New 2016 presidential result
3rd District Mike Kelly (R) R+26.1 R+19.9

Not sure which district you're in? Find out here.

Click the box below to see how the new congressional districts compare to the ones in place before the redrawing.


Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16

Incumbent Mike Kelly defeated Ronald DiNicola and Ebert Beeman in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mike Kelly
Mike Kelly (R) Candidate Connection
 
51.6
 
135,348
Image of Ronald DiNicola
Ronald DiNicola (D)
 
47.3
 
124,109
Image of Ebert Beeman
Ebert Beeman (L)
 
1.1
 
2,939

Total votes: 262,396
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16

Ronald DiNicola defeated Chris Rieger and Robert Multari in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ronald DiNicola
Ronald DiNicola
 
60.0
 
23,480
Image of Chris Rieger
Chris Rieger
 
24.9
 
9,758
Robert Multari
 
15.1
 
5,914

Total votes: 39,152
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16

Incumbent Mike Kelly advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mike Kelly
Mike Kelly Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
39,412

Total votes: 39,412
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District the 160th most Republican nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[8]

Race background

Pennsylvania's 16th District was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.[9]

Campaign contributions

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Mike Kelly Republican Party $2,590,297 $3,294,021 $38,377 As of December 31, 2018
Ronald DiNicola Democratic Party $1,757,650 $1,755,514 $3,136 As of December 31, 2018
Ebert Beeman Libertarian Party $28,930 $28,930 $0 As of September 30, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District election, DiNicola vs. Kelly
Poll Ronald DiNicola (D) Mike Kelly (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Sasquehanna Polling and Research
(October 29-30, 2018)
51%47%1%+/-4.9405
New York Times / Sienna College
(October 5-8, 2018)
42%50%8%+/-4.8532
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

District history

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Click here for more information about the ruling.

See also

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 Refers to the old district that makes up a plurality of the new district.
  2. The old 1st and 11th districts did not make up a plurality of any of the new districts. The 1st District went for Hillary Clinton by 61.3 percentage points and was represented by Bob Brady (D). The 11th District went for Donald Trump by 23.8 percentage points and was represented by Lou Barletta (R).
  3. District 13 incumbent Brendan Boyle (D) filed for re-election in the new 2nd District.
  4. District 17 incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) filed for re-election in the new 8th District.
  5. Lamb was elected in a March 2018 special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R).
  6. Lamb filed to run for PA-17 in the 2018 election.
  7. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  10. Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
  11. The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016
  12. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  13. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  14. United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
  15. Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018



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