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Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 18, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Brian Fitzpatrick (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District
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Pennsylvania elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick won election in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
February 18, 2020
April 28, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, who was first elected in 2016.

Fitzpatrick defeated Andrew Meehan in the Republican primary with 63.3% of the vote to Meehan's 36.7%. In the Democratic primary, Finello defeated Skylar Hurwitz with 77.5% of the vote to Hurwitz's 22.5%.

Fitzpatrick was first elected to represent the state's 8th Congressional District in 2016. Following court-ordered redistricting in 2018, he was elected to the 1st District, defeating Democrat Scott Wallace 51.3% to 48.7%. Fitzpatrick was one of two Republican House incumbents seeking re-election in a district Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Fitzpatrick as a member of its 2020 Patriot Program in April 2019. Program Chairman John Katko (R-N.Y.) said, "Our initial Patriot Program Members are among the most accomplished and effective members in the Republican conference. ... While Democrats continue to call them ‘targets,’ the NRCC will be empowering these members to stay on offense and run aggressive, organized campaigns against their Democratic challengers."[3]

In July 2020, Finello was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)'s Red to Blue program. DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said, "With her deep roots in Lower Bucks County and a district trending rapidly toward Democrats, momentum is on Christina’s side. I look forward to welcoming her to Congress next year where I know she’ll be a champion for all people in Bucks and Montgomery counties."[4]

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were one percentage point more Republican than the national average.

Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District is located in the southeast corner of Pennsylvania and includes portions of Bucks and Montgomery counties.[5]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 52.4 43.4
Republican candidate Republican Party 46.6 56.6
Difference 5.8 13.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Pennsylvania modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: The mail-in ballot receipt deadline for the general election was extended to November 6, 2020. Drop boxes were made available to return ballots. The state provided prepaid return postage for all mail-in and absentee ballots.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1

Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick defeated Christina Finello and Steve Scheetz in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
 
56.6
 
249,804
Image of Christina Finello
Christina Finello (D)
 
43.4
 
191,875
Image of Steve Scheetz
Steve Scheetz (L) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
0

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 441,679
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1

Christina Finello defeated Skylar Hurwitz in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Christina Finello
Christina Finello
 
77.5
 
71,571
Image of Skylar Hurwitz
Skylar Hurwitz Candidate Connection
 
22.5
 
20,737

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 92,308
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1

Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick defeated Andrew Meehan in the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick
 
63.3
 
48,017
Image of Andrew Meehan
Andrew Meehan Candidate Connection
 
36.7
 
27,895

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 75,912
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Republican than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District the 233rd most Republican nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.02. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.02 points toward that party.[7]

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District election, 2020, hypothetical general election match up
Poll Poll sponsor Brian Fitzpatrick (R) Debbie Wachspress (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Remington Research Group (R)
November 6-7, 2019		Congressional Leadership Fund 50%36%14%+/-3.4803
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[8] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[9] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Brian Fitzpatrick Republican Party $4,240,717 $4,309,028 $48,325 As of December 31, 2020
Christina Finello Democratic Party $2,377,880 $2,370,814 $7,066 As of December 31, 2020
Steve Scheetz Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016

This district was one of five Republican-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.


Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent Ran in 2020? 2018 congressional margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Yes Republicans+5.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
North Carolina's 2nd Republican Party George Holding Retired Republicans+5.6 Clinton+24.4 Obama+15.3
North Carolina's 6th Republican Party Mark Walker Retired Republicans+13.2 Clinton+21.5 Obama+17.7
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick Yes Republicans+2.5 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Retired Republicans+0.4 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos


Click here to see the 30 U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump (R) in 2016.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Erie County, Pennsylvania 1.56% 16.03% 19.88%
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania 19.31% 4.81% 8.41%
Northampton County, Pennsylvania 3.78% 4.71% 12.30%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[14][15]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 89 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 84 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Clinton won 19 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 114 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 20 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 119 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1

Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick defeated Scott Wallace in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
 
51.3
 
169,053
Image of Scott Wallace
Scott Wallace (D)
 
48.7
 
160,745

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 329,798
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1

Scott Wallace defeated Rachel Reddick and Steve Bacher in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Scott Wallace
Scott Wallace
 
56.5
 
27,676
Image of Rachel Reddick
Rachel Reddick
 
35.3
 
17,313
Image of Steve Bacher
Steve Bacher
 
8.2
 
4,014

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 49,003
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1

Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick defeated Dean Malik in the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 1 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick
 
67.0
 
31,394
Image of Dean Malik
Dean Malik
 
33.0
 
15,461

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 46,855
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Results prior to 2018 redistricting

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Click here for more information about the ruling.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ In Pennsylvania, in-person mail-in voting is available (i.e., a voter can visit a county election office, obtain a mail-in ballot, and return it).
  2. ↑ In Pennsylvania, in-person mail-in voting is available (i.e., a voter can visit a county election office, obtain a mail-in ballot, and return it).
  3. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces First Round of Patriot Program Members," April 19, 2019
  4. ↑ DCCC, "DCCC Adds Christina Finello to Selective ‘Red to Blue’ Program," July 16, 2020
  5. ↑ Pennsylvania Courts, "Composite Listing of Congressional Districts," accessed April 12, 2018
  6. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  9. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  16. ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
  17. ↑ The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016


Pennsylvania's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
John Fetterman (D)
David McCormick (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Republican Party (11)
Democratic Party (8)


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