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Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 2
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
|
| Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 20, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Pennsylvania |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 7th (special) • 15th (special) • 18th (special) Pennsylvania elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
A Republican Party primary election took place on May 15, 2018, in Pennsylvania's 3rd District to determine which Republican would run in the district's November 6, 2018, general election.
This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Results of 2018 redistricting
On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling.
The chart below compares this new district with the old district that was the most geographically similar to it.
| Old district[1] | Prior incumbent | Prior 2016 presidential result | New 2016 presidential result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd District | Dwight Evans (D) | D+82.8 | D+83.9 |
Not sure which district you're in? Find out here.
Click the box below to see how the new congressional districts compare to the ones in place before the redrawing.
Candidates and election results
Bryan Leib advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3 on May 15, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Bryan Leib  | 100.0 | 3,430 |
| Total votes: 3,430 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+41, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 41 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District the third most Democratic nationally.[7]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.72. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.72 points toward that party.[8]
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[9]
Republicans
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania.
- Republicans held 12 of 17 U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 11 state executive positions, while six were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Pennsylvania was Democrat Tom Wolf.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Pennsylvania General Assembly. They had a 120-79 majority in the state House and a 33-16 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Pennsylvania was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Tom Wolf (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2018
Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- 18 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- 25 of 50 state Senate seats
- 203 state House seats
Demographics
| Demographic data for Pennsylvania | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 12,791,904 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 44,743 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 81.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 11% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 28.6% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,599 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 15.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).[10][11]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
48.6% |  Hillary Clinton |
47.9% | 0.7% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
52.1% | Mitt Romney |
46.7% | 5.4% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
54.7% | John McCain |
44.3% | 10.4% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
51.0% | George Bush |
48.5% | 2.5% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
50.6% | George Bush |
46.4% | 4.2% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Patrick Toomey |
48.8% | Katie McGinty |
47.3% | 1.5% |
| 2012 | Bob Casey |
53.7% | Tom Smith |
44.6% | 9.1% |
| 2010 | Patrick Toomey |
51.0% | Joe Sestak |
49.0% | 2.0% |
| 2006 | Bob Casey |
58.7% | Rick Santorum |
41.3% | 17.4% |
| 2004 | Arlen Specter |
52.6% | Joseph Hoeffel |
42.0% | 10.6% |
| 2000 | Rick Santorum |
52.4% | Ron Klink |
45.5% | 6.9% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.
| Election results (Governor), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Tom Wolf |
54.9% | Thomas Corbett |
45.1% | 9.8% |
| 2010 | Thomas Corbett |
54.5% | Dan Onorato |
45.5% | 9.0% |
| 2006 | Ed Rendell |
60.4% | Lynn Swann |
39.6% | 20.8% |
| 2002 | Ed Rendell |
53.4% | Mike Fisher |
44.3% | 9.1% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2014 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2012 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2010 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2008 | 7 |
36.8% | 12 |
63.2% | D+5 |
| 2006 | 8 |
42.1% | 11 |
57.9% | D+3 |
| 2004 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2002 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2000 | 11 |
52.4% | 10 |
47.6% | R+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2025
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | _ |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2018
- United States House elections in Pennsylvania (May 15, 2018 Republican primaries)
- Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Refers to the old district that makes up a plurality of the new district.
- ↑ The old 1st and 11th districts did not make up a plurality of any of the new districts. The 1st District went for Hillary Clinton by 61.3 percentage points and was represented by Bob Brady (D). The 11th District went for Donald Trump by 23.8 percentage points and was represented by Lou Barletta (R).
- ↑ District 13 incumbent Brendan Boyle (D) filed for re-election in the new 2nd District.
- ↑ District 17 incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) filed for re-election in the new 8th District.
- ↑ Lamb was elected in a March 2018 special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R).
- ↑ Lamb filed to run for PA-17 in the 2018 election.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018
