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Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election, 2020

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Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 18, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Susan Wild (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District
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Pennsylvania elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 7th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Susan Wild won election in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
February 18, 2020
April 28, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Susan Wild, who was first elected in 2018.

Wild ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Scheller defeated Dean Browning with 52.1% of the vote to Browning's 47.9%.

Wild was first elected in the November 6, 2018, special election to fill the remainder of Charlie Dent's (R) term in the 15th Congressional District. On the same day, she won the regular election to represent the 7th Congressional District. As the result of court-ordered redistricting in 2018, the 7th District absorbed much of the previous 15th District, which Dent represented from 2005 to 2018.

In February 2019, Wild was named among the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)'s Frontline program members. DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said, "Our Majority hinges on these Members from tough seats winning reelection in 2020, and with today’s announcement we’re sending a clear message that the DCCC will stand shoulder to shoulder with them in the fight ahead."[3]

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Scheller as a "Contenders" candidate in its Young Gun program in February 2020. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said, "These hardworking candidates have proven their ability to run strong, competitive campaign operations. ... We’re going to ensure these contenders are victorious in November by forcing their Democratic opponents to own their party’s radical socialist agenda."[4]

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were one percentage point more Democratic than the national average.

Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District is located in eastern Pennsylvania and includes portions of Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton counties.[5]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 51.8 51.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 47 48.1
Difference 4.8 3.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Pennsylvania modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: The mail-in ballot receipt deadline for the general election was extended to November 6, 2020. Drop boxes were made available to return ballots. The state provided prepaid return postage for all mail-in and absentee ballots.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7

Incumbent Susan Wild defeated Lisa Scheller and Anthony Sayegh in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Susan Wild
Susan Wild (D)
 
51.9
 
195,475
Image of Lisa Scheller
Lisa Scheller (R)
 
48.1
 
181,407
Image of Anthony Sayegh
Anthony Sayegh (Independent) (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.0
 
0

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 376,882
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7

Incumbent Susan Wild advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Susan Wild
Susan Wild
 
100.0
 
76,878

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 76,878
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7

Lisa Scheller defeated Dean Browning in the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lisa Scheller
Lisa Scheller
 
52.1
 
29,673
Image of Dean Browning
Dean Browning
 
47.9
 
27,260

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 56,933
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Erie County, Pennsylvania 1.56% 16.03% 19.88%
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania 19.31% 4.81% 8.41%
Northampton County, Pennsylvania 3.78% 4.71% 12.30%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 89 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 84 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Clinton won 19 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 114 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 20 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 119 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District the 194th most Democratic nationally.[8]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[9]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[10] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[11] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Susan Wild Democratic Party $4,644,290 $4,591,501 $78,696 As of December 31, 2020
Lisa Scheller Republican Party $3,740,779 $3,661,738 $79,041 As of December 31, 2020
Anthony Sayegh Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[12]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[13][14][15]

Race ratings: Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7

Susan Wild defeated Marty Nothstein and Tim Silfies in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Susan Wild
Susan Wild (D)
 
53.5
 
140,813
Image of Marty Nothstein
Marty Nothstein (R)
 
43.5
 
114,437
Image of Tim Silfies
Tim Silfies (L)
 
3.0
 
8,011

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 263,261
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Susan Wild
Susan Wild
 
33.5
 
15,262
Image of John Morganelli
John Morganelli
 
30.1
 
13,754
Image of Greg Edwards
Greg Edwards
 
25.4
 
11,602
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Roger Ruggles
 
5.4
 
2,467
Image of Rick Daugherty
Rick Daugherty
 
3.9
 
1,760
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
David Clark
 
1.7
 
777

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 45,622
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7

Marty Nothstein defeated Dean Browning in the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marty Nothstein
Marty Nothstein
 
50.5
 
16,241
Image of Dean Browning
Dean Browning
 
49.5
 
15,923

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 32,164
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


Results prior to 2018 redistricting

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Click here for more information about the ruling.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ In Pennsylvania, in-person mail-in voting is available (i.e., a voter can visit a county election office, obtain a mail-in ballot, and return it).
  2. ↑ In Pennsylvania, in-person mail-in voting is available (i.e., a voter can visit a county election office, obtain a mail-in ballot, and return it).
  3. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline," February 7, 2019
  4. ↑ NRCC, "McCarthy Announces 35 Candidates in First Round of Young Gun 'Contenders,'" February 19, 2020
  5. ↑ Pennsylvania Courts, "Composite Listing of Congressional Districts," accessed April 12, 2018
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  9. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  10. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  11. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  12. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  15. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  16. ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
  17. ↑ The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016
  18. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Pennsylvania"


Pennsylvania's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
John Fetterman (D)
David McCormick (R)
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District 6
District 7
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District 9
District 10
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District 17
Republican Party (11)
Democratic Party (8)


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