Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Matt Cartwright (D) | 54.6 | 135,603 | |
| John Chrin (R) | 45.4 | 112,563 | ||
| Total votes: 248,166 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 2
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District |
|---|
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 20, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Pennsylvania |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic Inside Elections: Lean Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 7th (special) • 15th (special) • 18th (special) Pennsylvania elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 8th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Matt Cartwright (D), who was first elected in 2012.
Results of 2018 redistricting
On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling.
The chart below compares this new district with the old district that was the most geographically similar to it.
| Old district[1] | Prior incumbent | Prior 2016 presidential result | New 2016 presidential result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17th District | Matt Cartwright (D) | R+10.1 | R+9.5 |
Not sure which district you're in? Find out here.
Click the box below to see how the new congressional districts compare to the ones in place before the redrawing.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8
Incumbent Matt Cartwright defeated John Chrin in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Matt Cartwright (D) | 54.6 | 135,603 | |
| John Chrin (R) | 45.4 | 112,563 | ||
| Total votes: 248,166 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8
Incumbent Matt Cartwright advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Matt Cartwright | 100.0 | 36,189 | |
| Total votes: 36,189 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8
John Chrin defeated Joe Peters and Robert Kuniegel in the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | John Chrin | 48.5 | 15,221 | |
| Joe Peters | 34.9 | 10,951 | ||
Robert Kuniegel ![]() | 16.7 | 5,233 | ||
| Total votes: 31,405 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Republican than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District the 230th most Republican nationally.[7]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[8]
Race background
Pennsylvania's 8th District was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.[9]
Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick was included as one of the initial members of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program in 2018.[10]
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
John Chrin
Oppose
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Campaign contributions
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cartwright | Democratic Party | $2,432,562 | $2,563,832 | $429,799 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| John Chrin | Republican Party | $2,989,012 | $2,985,348 | $3,664 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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Democratic district won by Donald Trump
This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[11] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
| 2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | 2018 margin | 2016 presidential margin | 2012 presidential margin |
| Arizona's 1st | D+7.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+2.5 | ||
| Iowa's 2nd | D+12.2 | Trump+4.1 | Obama+13.1 | ||
| Illinois' 17th | D+23.6 | Trump+0.7 | Obama+17.0 | ||
| Minnesota's 1st | R+0.4 | Trump+14.9 | Obama+1.4 | ||
| Minnesota's 7th | D+4.3 | Trump+30.8 | Romney+9.8 | ||
| Minnesota's 8th | R+5.5 | Trump+15.6 | Obama+5.5 | ||
| New Hampshire's 1st | D+11.7 | Trump+1.6 | Obama+1.6 | ||
| New Jersey's 5th | D+11.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+3.1 | ||
| Nevada's 3rd | D+9.1 | Trump+1.0 | Obama+0.8 | ||
| New York's 18th | D+10.2 | Trump+1.9 | Obama+4.3 | ||
| Pennsylvania's 8th | D+9.2 | Trump+9.6 | Obama+11.9 | ||
| Pennsylvania's 14th | R+15.9 | Trump+29.0 | Romney+17.7 | ||
| Wisconsin's 3rd | D+19.4 | Trump+4.5 | Obama+11.0 | ||
Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, Cartwright vs. Chrin | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Matt Cartwright (D) | John Chrin (R) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||||
| Sasquehanna Polling and Research (October 28-29, 2018) | 57% | 40% | 2% | +/-4.6 | 446 | ||||||||||||||
| New York Times / Sienna College (October 16-19, 2018) | 52% | 40% | 8% | +/-4.7 | 506 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
District history
On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Click here for more information about the ruling.
To view prior results from the same numeric district, click [show] to expand the section. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2016Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R), who served in Congress from 2005 to 2007 and was elected once again in 2010, chose not to seek re-election in 2016, leaving the seat open. Fitzpatrick decided not to run in 2016 because of self-imposed term limits. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), a former FBI agent and the brother of the retiring incumbent, defeated state Rep. Steve Santarsiero (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Fitzpatrick defeated former Bucks County Commissioner Andy Warren and clinical psychologist and neuropsychologist Marc Duome in the Republican primary. Santarsiero defeated business owner Shaughnessy Naughton to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on April 26, 2016.[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]
2014Michael G. Fitzpatrick won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Kevin Strouse in the general election.
Pivot Counties
Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016. Presidential results by legislative districtThe following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[23][24]
State overviewPartisan controlThis section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections. Congressional delegation
State executives
State legislature
Trifecta status
2018 elections
Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:
Demographics
As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).[25][26] State election historyThis section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State. Historical electionsPresidential elections, 2000-2016This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years. Trifectas, 1992-2017A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office. Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2025
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See also
- Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Refers to the old district that makes up a plurality of the new district.
- ↑ The old 1st and 11th districts did not make up a plurality of any of the new districts. The 1st District went for Hillary Clinton by 61.3 percentage points and was represented by Bob Brady (D). The 11th District went for Donald Trump by 23.8 percentage points and was represented by Lou Barletta (R).
- ↑ District 13 incumbent Brendan Boyle (D) filed for re-election in the new 2nd District.
- ↑ District 17 incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) filed for re-election in the new 8th District.
- ↑ Lamb was elected in a March 2018 special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R).
- ↑ Lamb filed to run for PA-17 in the 2018 election.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Republicans believe these 10 House incumbents will face the toughest campaigns of 2018," February 15, 2017
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
- ↑ Roll Call, "Democrat Kicks Off Race for Open Pennsylvania Seat," accessed January 12, 2014
- ↑ Politics PA, "PA-8: Warren to Run in 2016," June 24, 2015
- ↑ Politics PA, "PA-8: Petri Officially Jumps into Congressional Race," October 2, 2015
- ↑ Ballotpedia Staff, "Email correspondence with Marc Duome," January 11, 2016
- ↑ Philly.com, "Fitzpatrick's brother aims to succeed him in U.S. House," January 22, 2016
- ↑ Roll Call, "Democrat Kicks Off Race for Open Pennsylvania Seat," accessed January 12, 2014
- ↑ Philly.com, "GOP's Petri drops out of Bucks County congressional race," February 1, 2016
- ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018
= candidate completed the