Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2018
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State Senate • State House • Candidate ballot access |
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November 6, 2018 |
TBD |
Tom Wolf (D) |
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| Down Ballot |
Pennsylvania will hold an election for governor on November 6, 2018.
In May 2017, the overall race rating from five separate outlets was Lean Democrat. To read more about what that means, click here.
Candidates
Note: Prior to the signature filing deadline, candidates will be added when Ballotpedia writers come across declared candidates. If you see that the name of a candidate is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.
Context of the 2018 election
Race rating
In January 2017, Governing rated the race as vulnerable for the Democratic Party. Vulnerable means that the sitting governor's party is at risk of losing control of the seat in the general election. Races were given one of three ratings: vulnerable, potentially vulnerable, or safe. Governing developed these ratings by consulting political experts within the state and national party strategists. They offered the following explanation for Pennsylvania's rating:[1]
| “ | Wolf has not formally announced his intention to run for a second term, but he has said that he plans a re-election bid.
Wolf has achieved some successes, including a 4.7 percent budget increase, record spending for school districts and legislation to battle opioid abuse. But Wolf’s approval ratings have been below 45 percent and the failure of Hillary Clinton to win the state in 2016 can’t be an encouraging development for his party. Wolf is also not considered the most scintillating campaigner, and the prospect of trying to enact a left-of-center agenda against a solid Republican legislature could lead him to consider skipping a second term. Whatever Wolf decides, the GOP has an active field, led by state Sen. Scott Wagner, a businessman who will have a strong appeal to Trump voters. Other possibilities include Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman, U.S. representatives Patrick Meehan and Mike Kelly, House Speaker Mike Turzai, former Lt. Gov Jim Cawley and Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce President Rob Wonderling. If Wolf decides not to run, potential Democratic candidates could include Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald, Undersecretary of Army and former Rep. Patrick Murphy, and state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale. And if Wolf does run, he may face a primary challenge from his left by Pittsburgh-area Mayor John Fetterman. (Update: After this story ran, Fetterman tweeted that Wolf has his "full, unqualified support in 2018.")[2] |
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| Governing 2018 Gubernatorial Race Ratings (January 2017) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Open race? | Incumbent | Rating |
| Alabama | Yes | Robert Bentley  |
Safe |
| Alaska | No | Bill Walker  |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Arizona | No | Doug Ducey |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Arkansas | No | Asa Hutchinson |
Safe |
| California | Yes | Jerry Brown  |
Safe |
| Colorado | Yes | John Hickenlooper |
Vulnerable |
| Connecticut | No | Dannel Malloy |
Vulnerable |
| Florida | Yes | Rick Scott |
Vulnerable |
| Georgia | Yes | Nathan Deal |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Hawaii | No | David Ige |
Safe |
| Idaho | Yes | Butch Otter |
Safe |
| Illinois | No | Bruce Rauner |
Vulnerable |
| Iowa | No | Terry Branstad |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Kansas | Yes | Sam Brownback |
Safe |
| Maine | Yes | Paul LePage |
Vulnerable |
| Maryland | No | Larry Hogan |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Massachusetts | No | Charlie Baker |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Michigan | Yes | Rick Snyder |
Vulnerable |
| Minnesota | Yes | Mark Dayton |
Vulnerable |
| Nebraska | No | Pete Ricketts |
Safe |
| Nevada | Yes | Brian Sandoval |
Vulnerable |
| New Hampshire | No | Chris Sununu |
NA* |
| New Mexico | Yes | Susana Martinez |
Vulnerable |
| New York | No | Andrew Cuomo |
Safe |
| Ohio | Yes | John Kasich |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Oklahoma | Yes | Mary Fallin |
Safe |
| Oregon | No | Kate Brown |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Pennsylvania | No | Tom Wolf |
Vulnerable |
| Rhode Island | No | Gina Raimondo |
Vulnerable |
| South Carolina | No | Henry McMaster |
Safe |
| South Dakota | Yes | Dennis Daugaard |
Safe |
| Tennessee | Yes | Bill Haslam |
Safe |
| Texas | No | Greg Abbott |
Safe |
| Vermont | No | Phillip Scott |
NA* |
| Wisconsin | No | Scott Walker |
Potentially vulnerable |
| Wyoming | Yes | Matt Mead |
Safe |
| *Governing did not rate the gubernatorial races in New Hampshire and Vermont, which are held every two years. | |||
Our rating
Ballotpedia rates the 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election as a Toss-up. This rating is based on our gubernatorial race rating system. Although Pennsylvania went to Donald Trump in 2016 with less than 55% of the electorate, the state currently has a Democratic governor. This rating will be updated as the race unfolds.
| Race Rankings - Governor of Pennsylvania | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race Tracker | Race Ratings | |||||||||
| May 5, 2017 | ||||||||||
| Ballotpedia | Toss-up | |||||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Democrat | |||||||||
| Governing | Toss-up | |||||||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democrat | |||||||||
| The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report | Lean Democrat | |||||||||
| Overall call | Lean Democrat | Note: Ratings are based on projections found in Governing, Larry Sabato, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Daily Kos, and The Cook Political Report where available. These ratings are updated periodically throughout the election season. | ||||||||
State profile
This excerpt is reprinted here with the permission of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics and is up to date as of the publication date of that edition. All text is reproduced verbatim, though links have been added by Ballotpedia staff. To read the full chapter on Pennsylvania, click here.
The state where the Founders declared their independence and wrote the Constitution started out as a Quaker haven, founded in 1682 by the pacifist William Penn, son of an admiral to whom King Charles II owed political debts. Pennsylvania’s policy of tolerance attracted Englishmen of many religious sects and thousands of pietist Germans—ancestors of the Pennsylvania Dutch. Soon, Pennsylvania became the major settlement in the Middle Colonies and Philadelphia the largest colonial port. In the 18th century, bordermen from Scotland, the north of England, and Northern Ireland landed in Philadelphia and crossed the corduroy ridges of the Appalachians and settled the mountainous interior. The geometric lines William Penn had obtained from the king included two major river systems—the wide Delaware estuary with its thriving commerce and rich hinterland, and the golden triangle where the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers joined to form the Ohio, still today important geographical features defining the eastern and western parts of the state. Philadelphia was the natural host for the Continental Congresses that began ... (read more)
| Demographic data for Pennsylvania | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 12,758,729 | 314,107,084 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 44,743 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity | ||
| White: | 78.5% | 62.8% |
| Black/African American: | 10.9% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3% | 5% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2% | 2.9% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.1% | 16.9% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89% | 86.3% |
| College graduation rate: | 28.1% | 29.3% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,115 | $53,482 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 13.5% | 14.8% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2014) | ||
Presidential voting pattern
Pennsylvania voted Democrat in four out of the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016.
More Pennsylvania coverage on Ballotpedia
- Elections in Pennsylvania
- United States congressional delegations from Pennsylvania
- Public policy in Pennsylvania
- Influencers in Pennsylvania
- Verbatim Pennsylvania fact checks
- More...
Recent news
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See also
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External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Governing, "2017-2018 Governors' Races: Where Power Is Most and Least Likely to Flip," January 5, 2017
- ↑ Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributed to the original source.
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