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Pivot Counties: Looking at the historical voting patterns of the 206 Obama-Obama-Trump counties from 1964-2016

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Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.[1] These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers. Collectively, Trump won these counties by more than 580,000 votes and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent.

After identifying the 206 Pivot Counties, we wanted to explore deeper trends. What were the historical voting patterns in these counties? Proportionally, had they supported the winning candidate more often than other counties? What kinds of winning streaks did various Pivot Counties have? Read on for these answers and more.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Between 1964 and 2016, 119 of the 206 Pivot Counties leaned Democratic.
  • Two counties, Vigo County, Indiana, and Valencia County, New Mexico, voted for the winning presidential candidate from 1960 to 2016.
  • 2,226 counties nationwide voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 2008, 2012, and 2016. 449 counties nationwide voted for the Democratic candidate in these years.


    • Vote totals by type of county

    Ballotpedia identified a total of 2,226 counties, 71.48 percent of all counties nationwide, that voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 2008, 2012, and 2016, as well as 449 counties that voted for the Democratic candidate in 2008, 2012, and 2016. Additionally, we identified 10 counties that voted for the losing presidential candidate in all three elections, as well as 206 Pivot Counties. The table below details the vote totals for these three elections in the identified counties, as well as the total in the 223 counties that did not fit into any of these categories.[2]

    Vote totals by county type, 2008-2016
    Type of county Number of counties 2016 total vote 2016 D vote 2016 R vote 2012 total vote 2012 D vote 2012 R vote 2008 total vote 2008 D vote 2008 R vote
    Pivot 206 7,525,802 3,251,283 3,833,038 7,339,734 3,890,365 3,324,516 7,558,396 4,099,304 3,338,773
    All Republican 2,226 49,803,112 15,413,240 31,482,157 46,487,633 16,464,260 29,237,397 47,067,704 17,990,756 28,409,638
    All Democratic 449 69,046,803 42,445,790 22,478,716 65,157,468 40,781,084 23,251,703 66,315,604 42,124,950 23,291,219
    All losing 10 2,529,285 1,267,912 1,104,935 2,331,618 1,061,590 1,221,322 2,341,623 1,096,120 1,207,058
    Other 223 8,195,227 3,475,400 4,086,260 7,921,189 3,721,208 3,899,469 8,190,378 4,188,298 3,703,635

    Pivot Counties by party

    Between 1964 and 2016, the Pivot Counties leaned Democratic. Of the 206 Pivot Counties, 119 voted Democratic in over half of the presidential elections between 1964 and 2016. This represents 57.77 percent of the Pivot Counties. The table below details the overall trend of the Pivot Counties since 1964.

    Pivot Counties by party, 1964-2016
    Democratic candidates Republican candidates
    Number of Pivot Counties that leaned Democratic Percentage that leaned Democratic Number of Pivot Counties that leaned Republican Percentage that leaned Republican
    119 57.77% 87 42.23%

    Winning counties by year

    The table below details the number and percentage of Pivot Counties won by each party in every presidential election dating back to 1964.

    Winning candidates in Pivot Counties, 1964-2016
    Counties 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964
    Democratic 0 206 206 126 122 203 175 114 43 56 126 16 74 186
    Percentage 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 61.17% 59.22% 98.54% 84.95% 55.34% 20.87% 27.18% 61.17% 7.77% 35.92% 90.29%
    Republican 206 0 0 80 84 3 30 92 163 150 80 190 114 20
    Percentage 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 38.83% 40.78% 1.46% 14.56% 44.66% 79.13% 72.82% 38.83% 92.23% 55.34% 9.71%

    Counties matching national results

    The table below details the number and percentage of Pivot Counties that voted for the winning candidate in each election year from 1964 to 2016. For example, in 1980, 19 counties matched the national result. This indicates that 19 counties matched the national results in each election as far back as 1980, which represents 9.22 percent of the 206 Pivot Counties. Ballotpedia identified two counties that voted for the winning candidate from 1960 to 2016: Vigo County, Indiana, and Valencia County, New Mexico.

    Winning candidates in Pivot Counties, 1964-2016
    Counties 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964
    Counties 206 206 206 80 57 54 35 22 22 19 7 7 6 6
    Percentage of counties 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 38.83% 27.67% 26.21% 16.99% 10.68% 10.68% 9.22% 3.40% 3.40% 2.91% 2.91%

    10 counties voting for losing candidates

    In addition to the Pivot Counties, Ballotpedia identified 10 counties that voted for McCain in 2008, Romney in 2012, and Clinton in 2016, and we examined their voting histories back to 1964. The tables below detail the voting histories of these 10 counties. For more information about the voting patterns in these counties, see Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for April 25, 2017.

    Counties voting for losing candidates, 1964-2016
    Counties 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964
    District 4, Alaska Clinton Romney McCain N/A Bush Dole Bush Dukakis Reagan Reagan Ford Nixon Humphrey Johnson
    District 20, Alaska Clinton Romney McCain N/A Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Reagan Ford Nixon N/A N/A
    District 21, Alaska Clinton Romney McCain N/A Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Reagan Carter N/A N/A N/A
    District 33, Alaska Clinton Romney McCain N/A Bush Dole Bush N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
    Orange County, California Clinton Romney McCain Bush Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Reagan Ford Nixon Nixon Goldwater
    Cobb County, Georgia Clinton Romney McCain Bush Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Reagan Carter Nixon Nixon Goldwater
    Gwinnett County, Georgia Clinton Romney McCain Bush Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Reagan Carter Nixon Wallace Goldwater
    Henry County, Georgia Clinton Romney McCain Bush Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Carter Carter Nixon Wallace Johnson
    Anne Arundel County, Maryland Clinton Romney McCain Bush Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Reagan Ford Nixon Nixon Johnson
    Fort Bend County, Texas Clinton Romney McCain Bush Bush Dole Bush Bush Reagan Reagan Ford Nixon Nixon Johnson

    Pivot Counties history

    The table below shows the winning candidate in each of the 206 Pivot Counties since 1968. To see the table, click the [show] button.

    State vote totals by county type

    The tables below detail the vote totals of each type of county in each state in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections. To view a state's table, click the [show] button.

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ These figures do not include consolidated city-counties, or overseas votes.
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