Pivot Counties in Iowa
From Ballotpedia
Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, 31 are located in Iowa, accounting for 15.04 percent of the total pivot counties.[1]
HIGHLIGHTS
The following map displays the Pivot Counties in Iowa that voted for Obama, Obama, and Trump:
Contents
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Iowa. These counties accounted for 31.31 percent of the total counties in Iowa, and 26.11 percent of the state population.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Allamakee County, Iowa | 24.15% | 4.17% | 14.25% | ||||
| Boone County, Iowa | 13.69% | 6.64% | 7.63% | ||||
| Bremer County, Iowa | 13.68% | 2.68% | 9.31% | ||||
| Buchanan County, Iowa | 15.02% | 13.87% | 18.48% | ||||
| Cedar County, Iowa | 17.78% | 4.59% | 9.64% | ||||
| Cerro Gordo County, Iowa | 7.66% | 13.38% | 20.83% | ||||
| Chickasaw County, Iowa | 22.94% | 11.07% | 20.74% | ||||
| Clarke County, Iowa | 28.02% | 1.47% | 2.25% | ||||
| Clayton County, Iowa | 22.78% | 7.03% | 17.17% | ||||
| Clinton County, Iowa | 5.12% | 22.84% | 23.03% | ||||
| Des Moines County, Iowa | 6.89% | 18.41% | 23.04% | ||||
| Dubuque County, Iowa | 1.23% | 14.71% | 20.77% | ||||
| Fayette County, Iowa | 19.36% | 11.96% | 16.60% | ||||
| Floyd County, Iowa | 14.84% | 14.63% | 21.88% | ||||
| Howard County, Iowa | 20.49% | 20.95% | 25.78% | ||||
| Jackson County, Iowa | 19.27% | 16.89% | 24.39% | ||||
| Jasper County, Iowa | 18.13% | 7.07% | 7.50% | ||||
| Jefferson County, Iowa | 0.47% | 15.97% | 20.23% | ||||
| Jones County, Iowa | 19.08% | 7.78% | 10.40% | ||||
| Lee County, Iowa | 16.02% | 15.49% | 16.01% | ||||
| Louisa County, Iowa | 28.37% | 0.64% | 4.25% | ||||
| Marshall County, Iowa | 8.31% | 9.36% | 9.35% | ||||
| Mitchell County, Iowa | 24.04% | 3.37% | 12.31% | ||||
| Muscatine County, Iowa | 6.26% | 15.88% | 15.64% | ||||
| Poweshiek County, Iowa | 6.53% | 9.35% | 11.75% | ||||
| Tama County, Iowa | 20.28% | 7.43% | 12.19% | ||||
| Union County, Iowa | 27.49% | 3.86% | 3.70% | ||||
| Wapello County, Iowa | 20.60% | 11.88% | 13.53% | ||||
| Webster County, Iowa | 21.52% | 5.84% | 8.51% | ||||
| Winneshiek County, Iowa | 0.79% | 14.74% | 22.65% | ||||
| Worth County, Iowa | 21.68% | 14.53% | 22.42% | ||||
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Iowa since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in Iowa Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Allamakee County, Iowa | 12 | 80.00% | 3 | 20.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Boone County, Iowa | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Bremer County, Iowa | 10 | 66.67% | 5 | 33.33% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Buchanan County, Iowa | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Cedar County, Iowa | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Cerro Gordo County, Iowa | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Chickasaw County, Iowa | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Clarke County, Iowa | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Clayton County, Iowa | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Clinton County, Iowa | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Des Moines County, Iowa | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 8 | 53.33% |
| Dubuque County, Iowa | 1 | 6.67% | 14 | 93.33% | 8 | 53.33% |
| Fayette County, Iowa | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Floyd County, Iowa | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Howard County, Iowa | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Jackson County, Iowa | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Jasper County, Iowa | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Jefferson County, Iowa | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Jones County, Iowa | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Lee County, Iowa | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Louisa County, Iowa | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Marshall County, Iowa | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Mitchell County, Iowa | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Muscatine County, Iowa | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Poweshiek County, Iowa | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Tama County, Iowa | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Union County, Iowa | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Wapello County, Iowa | 2 | 13.33% | 13 | 86.67% | 9 | 60.00% |
| Webster County, Iowa | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Winneshiek County, Iowa | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Worth County, Iowa | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Average | 6 | 43.01% | 9 | 56.99% | 11 | 71.61% |
| Median | 7 | 44.84% | 8 | 55.16% | 11 | 73.33% |
Turnout in 2016 and 2020 caucuses
The following table shows the number of voters who participated in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic and Republican presidential caucuses in Pivot Counties in Iowa and the percentage change in raw voter turnout.[2][3]
- Across all 31 Pivot Counties in Iowa, Democratic turnout was down 8.5%. Overall statewide turnout for Democrats was higher, going up 3.2%.
- Across all 31 Pivot Counties in Iowa, Republican turnout was down 79.6%. Overall statewide turnout was lower, going down 82.7%.
- Four Pivot Counties had increased Democratic turnout: Boone, Bremer, Cedar, and Dubuque counties. Buttigieg was the winner in three of these counties and Sanders in one.
- With an incumbent in the race, all Pivot Counties in Iowa saw reduced Republican turnout.
| Turnout in Iowa Pivot Counties, 2016-2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot County |  2016 Democratic turnout
|
2020 Democratic turnout
|
Percentage change
|
 2016 Republican turnout
|
2020 Republican turnout
|
Percentage change
|
| Allamakee County, Iowa | 600 | 496 | -17.3% | 687 | 158 | -77.0% |
| Boone County, Iowa | 1,300 | 1,351 | 3.9% | 1,758 | 363 | -79.4% |
| Bremer County, Iowa | 1,200 | 1,289 | 7.4% | 1,490 | 279 | -81.3% |
| Buchanan County, Iowa | 1,000 | 746 | -25.4% | 837 | 183 | -78.1% |
| Cedar County, Iowa | 799 | 823 | 3.0% | 1,070 | 264 | -75.3% |
| Cerro Gordo County, Iowa | 2,199 | 1,806 | -75.9% | 2,325 | 340 | -85.4% |
| Chickasaw County, Iowa | 599 | 387 | -35.4% | 601 | 135 | -77.5% |
| Clarke County, Iowa | 400 | 254 | -36.5% | 557 | 133 | -76.1% |
| Clayton County, Iowa | 800 | 632 | -21.0% | 846 | 220 | -74.0% |
| Clinton County, Iowa | 2,399 | 1,682 | -29.9% | 2,306 | 519 | -77.5% |
| Des Moines County, Iowa | 1,999 | 1,797 | -10.1% | 2,166 | 525 | -75.8% |
| Dubuque County, Iowa | 4,798 | 5,078 | 5.8% | 3,975 | 581 | -85.4% |
| Fayette County, Iowa | 998 | 760 | -23.8% | 1,000 | 246 | -75.4% |
| Floyd County, Iowa | 799 | 590 | -26.2% | 760 | 112 | -85.3% |
| Howard County, Iowa | 399 | 260 | -34.8% | 367 | 119 | -67.6% |
| Jackson County, Iowa | 900 | 768 | -14.7% | 930 | 205 | -78.0% |
| Jasper County, Iowa | 1,800 | 1,556 | -13.6% | 2,324 | 511 | -78.0% |
| Jefferson County, Iowa | 899 | 1,649 | 83.4% | 852 | 178 | -79.1% |
| Jones County, Iowa | 899 | 609 | -32.3% | 1,034 | 295 | -71.5% |
| Lee County, Iowa | 1,699 | 1,214 | -28.5% | 1,320 | 382 | -71.1% |
| Louisa County, Iowa | 400 | 306 | -23.5% | 724 | 143 | -80.2% |
| Marshall County, Iowa | 1,799 | 1,436 | -20.2% | 2,327 | 421 | -81.9% |
| Mitchell County, Iowa | 400 | 341 | -14.8% | 471 | 79 | -83.2% |
| Muscatine County, Iowa | 1,800 | 1,688 | -6.2% | 2,414 | 377 | -84.4% |
| Poweshiek County, Iowa | 899 | 1,755 | 95.2% | 983 | 214 | -78.2% |
| Tama County, Iowa | 899 | 567 | -36.9% | 983 | 210 | -78.6% |
| Union County, Iowa | 499 | 339 | -32.1% | 702 | 146 | -79.2% |
| Wapello County, Iowa | 1,491 | 1,075 | -24.9% | 1,669 | 333 | -80.0% |
| Webster County, Iowa | 1,599 | 1,199 | -25.0% | 1,591 | 327 | -79.4% |
| Winneshiek County, Iowa | 1,100 | 1,847 | 67.9% | 1,044 | 188 | -82.0% |
| Worth County, Iowa | 399 | 276 | -30.8% | 375 | 74 | -80.3% |
| Pivot County Total | 37,711 | 34,576 | -8.5% | 40,488 | 8,260 | -79.6% |
| Statewide Total | 171,109 | 176,569 | 3.2% | 186,874 | 32,389 | -82.7% |
2016 election results
- See also: Presidential election in Iowa, 2016
Iowa had six electoral votes, which was 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in 2016 and 2.2 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Iowa's caucuses on February 1, 2016, marked the official beginning of the presidential nominating process for both parties. Hillary Clinton narrowly won the Iowa Democratic caucuses with 49.84 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz won the Iowa Republican caucuses with 27.7 percent of the vote. The table below details the results of the 2016 general election in Iowa.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, Iowa, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 41.7% | 653,669 | 0 | |
| Republican |  Donald Trump/Mike Pence |
51.1% | 800,983 | 6 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley | 0.3% | 5,335 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 0.7% | 11,479 | 0 | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Dan R. Vacek/Mark G. Elworth Jr. | 0.1% | 2,246 | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 3.8% | 59,186 | 0 | |
| New Independent | Lynn Sandra Kahn/Jay Stolba | 0.1% | 2,247 | 0 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria Estela La Riva/Dennis J. Banks | 0% | 323 | 0 | |
| Nominated by petition | Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg | 0% | 451 | 0 | |
| Nominated by petition | Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson | 0.8% | 12,366 | 0 | |
| - | Write-in votes | 1.1% | 17,746 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 1,566,031 | 6 | |||
| Election results via: Iowa Secretary of State | |||||
Caucuses
| Iowa Democratic Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Hillary Clinton |
49.84% | 700.47 | 23 | |
| Bernie Sanders | 49.59% | 696.92 | 21 | |
| Martin O'Malley | 0.54% | 7.63 | 0 | |
| Uncommitted | 0.03% | 0.46 | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,405.48 | 44 | ||
| Source: Iowa Democratic Party Votes = State Delegate Equivalents | ||||
| Iowa Republican Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Ted Cruz |
27.7% | 51,666 | 8 | |
| Donald Trump | 24.3% | 45,427 | 7 | |
| Marco Rubio | 23.1% | 43,165 | 7 | |
| Ben Carson | 9.3% | 17,395 | 3 | |
| Rand Paul | 4.5% | 8,481 | 1 | |
| Jeb Bush | 2.8% | 5,238 | 1 | |
| Carly Fiorina | 1.9% | 3,485 | 1 | |
| John Kasich | 1.9% | 3,474 | 1 | |
| Mike Huckabee | 1.8% | 3,345 | 1 | |
| Chris Christie | 1.8% | 3,284 | 0 | |
| Rick Santorum | 1% | 1,783 | 0 | |
| Totals | 186,743 | 30 | ||
| Source: The Des Moines Register, "Iowa Caucus Results" | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
- Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for March 31, 2017
Footnotes
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ Politico, "2016 Iowa Presidential Caucuses Results," accessed February 19, 2020
- ↑ The Washington Post, "2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses live results," February 19, 2020
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