PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections

• Ballotpedia's Election Analysis in 2018
• Wave elections
• FEDERAL
  • Post-election analysis
    • Control of the U.S. House
    • Control of the U.S. Senate
    • Was 2018 a wave election?
    • Incumbent win rates by state
  • Battleground elections
    • U.S. Senate
    • U.S. House
  • U.S. House and Senate competitiveness
    • Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
    • U.S. House races without major party competition
    • Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections
  • Events and media coverage
    • Timeline of events in 2018 congressional elections
    • Media coverage of 2018 congressional elections
  • Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections
  • Polls and prediction markets
    • Battleground election polls, 2018
    • PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections
• STATE
  • Post-election analysis
    • State government trifectas
    • Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
    • Partisan balance of governors
    • Was 2018 a wave election?
    • Incumbent win rates by state
    • Races decided by fewer than 100 votes
    • State legislative margins of victory
  • Party control
    • Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government
    • State government trifectas
    • Vulnerable state government trifectas
    • Veto-proof state legislatures
  • State election competitiveness
    • State Executive Competitiveness Report
    • State Legislative Competitiveness Report
  • State-level elections
    • State executive official elections
    • State legislative elections
    • State judicial elections
    • 2018 ballot measures
    • State legislative battleground chambers, 2018
  • Polls and prediction markets
    • Battleground election polls, 2018
    • PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections
    • 2018 ballot measure polls
• LOCAL
  • United States municipal elections, 2018
  • School board elections, 2018
  • 2018 election analysis: Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections
• 2018 PRIMARIES
  • Battleground primaries
    • Ballotpedia's Top 10 primaries
    • Democratic Party battlegrounds
    • Republican Party battlegrounds
  • Intra-party conflict
    • Democratic Party conflict
    • Republican Party conflict
  • Primary election competitiveness
  • Primary election turnout
  • Top 10 Closest Primaries: January to June 2018

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election. The price of a share in each individual contract rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares of the contract correlating to the correct outcome receive a $1 payout for each share they held.

Services such as PredictIt are being used to gain insight into the likely outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argues that they are better-suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer." A similar prediction market known as Intrade drew headlines in 2008 when it correctly predicted which candidate would carry 49 out of the 50 states in the presidential election (the market incorrectly predicted that John McCain (R) would carry Indiana).

On this page, you will find PredictIt market prices for battleground U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races during the three months leading up to the November 6, 2018, elections.

U.S. Senate races

Arizona

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the U.S. Senate race in Arizona in 2018?

California

PredictIt Prices: Will Dianne Feinstein be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in California in 2018?

Florida

PredictIt Prices: Will Bill Nelson be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Florida in 2018?

Indiana

PredictIt Prices: Will Joe Donnelly be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Indiana in 2018?

Minnesota

PredictIt Prices: Will Tina Smith be elected to the U.S. Senate in Minnesota in 2018?

Mississippi

PredictIt Prices: Will Mike Espy win the 2018 U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi?

Missouri

PredictIt Prices: Will Claire McCaskill be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Missouri in 2018?

Montana

PredictIt Prices: Will Jon Tester be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Montana in 2018?

Nevada

PredictIt Prices: Will Dean Heller be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Nevada in 2018?

New Jersey

PredictIt Prices: Will Bob Menendez be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in New Jersey in 2018?

New Mexico

PredictIt Prices: Will Martin Heinrich be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in New Mexico in 2018?

North Dakota

PredictIt Prices: Will Heidi Heitkamp be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in North Dakota in 2018?

Ohio

PredictIt Prices: Will Sherrod Brown be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Ohio in 2018?

Tennessee

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee in 2018?

Texas

PredictIt Prices: Will Ted Cruz be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Texas in 2018?

West Virginia

PredictIt Prices: Will Joe Manchin be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in West Virginia in 2018?

Gubernatorial races

Alaska

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Alaska gubernatorial race?

Arizona

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Arizona gubernatorial race?

California

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 California gubernatorial race?

Colorado

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Colorado gubernatorial race?

Connecticut

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial race?

Florida

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Florida gubernatorial race?

Georgia

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race?

Illinois

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Illinois gubernatorial race?

Iowa

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Iowa gubernatorial race?

Kansas

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial race?

Maine

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Maine gubernatorial race?

Maryland

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Maryland gubernatorial race?

Michigan

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Michigan gubernatorial race?

Minnesota

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial race?

Nevada

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Nevada gubernatorial race?

New Hampshire

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial race?

New Mexico

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial race?

New York

PredictIt Prices: Who will win the 2018 New York Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Ohio

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Ohio gubernatorial race?

Oklahoma

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial race?

Oregon

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Oregon gubernatorial race?

Pennsylvania

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race?

Rhode Island

PredictIt Prices: Will a Republican candidate win the 2018 Rhode Island gubernatorial race?

Wisconsin

PredictIt Prices: Will a Democratic candidate win the 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial race?

See also

• United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• Gubernatorial elections, 2018

External links

• PredictIt homepage

Footnotes

Ballotpedia

About

Overview • What people are saying • Support Ballotpedia • Contact • Contribute • Job opportunities

---

Executive: Leslie Graves, Founder and CEO • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer

Communications: Alison Graves, Director of Communications • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Frank Festa • Sarah Groat • Nathaniel Harwood • Dillon Redmond • Erica Shumaker
External Relations: Geoff Pallay, Director of External Relations • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Ashley Fleming • Thomas Mardik • Hannah Nelson
Operations: Meghann Olshefski, Director of Operations • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
Tech: Matt Latourelle, Director of Technology Operations • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Joseph Sanchez • Mary Susmitha

Contributors: Scott Rasmussen

---

Editorial Content

Josh Altic, Director of Content • Daniel Anderson, Associate Director of Elections & Data • Cory Eucalitto, Associate Director of Features • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor of Ballot Measures • Mandy McConnell, Managing Editor of News • Doug Kronaizl, Managing Editor of Local Expansion • Abbey Smith, Managing Editor of Elections • Janie Valentine, Managing Editor of Law • Joel Williams. Managing Editor of Events • Andrew Bahl • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Jon Dunn • Thomas Ellis • Nicole Fisher • Brianna Hosea • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Nathan Maxwell • Jimmy McAllister • Ellie Mikus • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Annelise Reinwald • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Emma Soukup • Alexis Thacker • Mina Vogel • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox