PredictIt markets in the 2020 Republican presidential primary

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2020 Presidential Election Date: November 3, 2020

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This page provides an overview of PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 Republican presidential primary.

Click here for information about markets relating to the Democratic primary.
Click here for information about markets relating to the general election.

What is a PredictIt market?

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.

The price of a share in each individual contract rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a $1 payout for each share they held.

For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.

Why do PredictIt markets matter?

Services such as PredictIt are being used to gain insight into the likely outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argues that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."

Republican presidential primary markets

See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2020

See also

• Presidential candidates, 2020
• Democratic presidential nomination, 2020
• Republican presidential nomination, 2020
• PredictIt markets in the 2020 presidential election

Footnotes

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