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Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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September 14, 2015
Although he has been mired in single digits in the polls for the past month, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush remains the choice of Republican Insiders as their most likely standard bearer in 2016. A Ballotpedia survey of 128 Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives, found that 54 ranked Bush number one as the candidate they thought was “most likely to capture the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.”
Bush earned a Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index of .741. Bush’s closest rivals were Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the top pick of 34 GOP Insiders to capture the party’s nod and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, seen as most likely to win the GOP nomination by 15 Republican influentials. Rubio and Kasich earned Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index scores of .588 and .452, respectively.
128 Republican Insiders were asked to rank the top five contenders for their party's 2016 presidential nomination. In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 points, and so on. The Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index is determined by the percentage of points that each contender receives compared to the maximum possible points a contender could receive. For example, Jeb Bush earned a .741 index rating having received 74.1% of the maximum possible 640 points, which is how many he would have received if all 128 Republican participants had ranked him first for the candidate most likely to win the nomination. |
A comparable survey conducted by National Journal magazine in August 2011 found that Mitt Romney was also the top choice of Republican Insiders to receive the nod for the party’s 2012 nomination. Romney’s Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index in that survey would have been approximately .930. Republican Insiders in that 2011 survey picked Texas Gov. Rick Perry as the candidate most likely to capture the nomination after Romney. His Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index would have been roughly .740. In this latest survey, which was concluded on September 9, Perry earned a nominating index of .002. Two days later, he suspended his presidential campaign, effectively dropping out of the 2016 race.
Donald Trump, the reality TV personality and real estate billionaire who is actually leading in the preference polls of registered Republican voters, was the first choice of only six GOP Insiders to capture the 2016 nomination. The relatively poor—and perhaps surprising—showing for Trump among Republican Insiders is easy to explain. Trump has railed against the party establishment as he has zoomed to the head of the 2016 Republican pack in public opinion polls. Some of the controversial statements he’s made along the way have caused many GOP operatives to cringe and probably would have sunk a conventional candidate. In a separate survey of these same party elites, a plurality viewed Trump’s candidacy as harmful to the Republican Party.
For those wondering how Scott Walker could finish slightly ahead of Trump in the Ballot Presidential Nominating Index when Trump had more first and second place votes than the Wisconsin governor, it’s because Walker received more third and fourth-place votes than the real estate mogul.
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First-place vote breakdown  |
Second-place vote breakdown  |
It’s also worth noting that political insiders don’t always make the right forecasts. In a similar survey of GOP Insiders in the summer of 2007, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the top pick of 36 percent as the candidate most likely to be the 2008 Republican standard bearer, followed closely by Romney, the choice of 35 percent of those polled. Arizona Sen. John McCain, whose campaign had been hobbled by the immigration issue and was struggling with its fundraising at that point in the 2008 race, was only seen as the most likely nominee by only 9 percent of the GOP Insiders.
Eventually, the GOP Insiders think that a more establishment-oriented candidate is likely to prevail. “The strongest mainstream candidate will likely be second or third in the early states, yet history shows the anti-establishment vote fades as primary season progresses,” predicted one Republican influential. “The winner of the "not Trump" lane, that’s Bush, Rubio, or Kasich, will ultimately prevail as the primaries move from the South to the North and West,” echoed another. “Trump is Jesse Jackson,” argued a third GOP Insider. “He’s guaranteed to finish top three, but he can’t win the nomination.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from GOP Insiders.
At the same time, GOP Insiders acknowledge that the political currents in this presidential election are more treacherous for the party establishment than in the past. “Outsiders rule in a historic departure from nominating elected officials,” said one GOP Insider. “Rubio is the only one who can break through this dynamic.”
And some just said the 2016 GOP presidential campaign was too fluid right now to try to predict its outcome. “Ranking candidates at this stage is pure guesswork,” maintained one GOP Insider. The race is totally, completely wide open among the top contenders.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted September 4-9.
See also
- Jeb Bush presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
