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Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton is the pick of Democratic Insiders
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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November 20, 2015
Hillary Clinton remains the heavy favorite of Democratic Insiders to capture their party’s 2016 presidential nomination.
In a Ballotpedia survey of 97 Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives, the former First Lady and Secretary of State received an average rating of 83. In other words, the Democratic Insiders collectively felt she had an 83 percent chance of winning the nomination. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was given a 14 percent chance and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley was given a five percent chance. (The sum of the percentages does not add up to 100, because of rounding, and in a handful of instances, where some Insiders were unable to register their responses on three separate sliding scales to make their ratings total 100.)
Clinton’s status as the overwhelming frontrunner was reflected in the results beyond a simple average of the responses. Not one of the Democratic Insiders rated her chances at less than 50 percent. Nine of the Democratic Insiders effectively said her nomination was an absolute certainty and gave her a rating of 100.
“There is just no contest,” declared one Democratic Insider. “The entire establishment is behind HRC and they have successfully blocked anyone else's path to the nomination,” said another. And a third Democratic Insider noted: “I would put 100%, but it seems irresponsible two months before the first election. But this thing is over.” Insiders were given anonymity to respond in order to encourage their candor.
Sanders trailed Clinton by a wide margin, and only seven of the Democratic Insiders surveyed gave him better than a one-in-three chance of capturing the nomination. “It’s more likely that Hillary will derail herself than that Bernie will beat her, but you have to allow for that possibility,” said one Democratic Insider. “Bernie is stirring up the most liberal Americans, but his policies and his presentation won’t appeal to a majority of democratic voters in the end,” added another.
And some Democratic Insiders were dismissive of Clinton’s two remaining rivals. “We live in serious times,” said one Democratic Insider. “She’s a serious candidate; they aren’t.” Referring to Sanders another asked, “Do we want a candidate to make a statement or lead the country?” And a third cracked, “O’Malley is practicing well to be VP because it would take a death for him to rise to power.”
The survey was conducted November 14-18. A different index was used to rate the Democratic contenders two months ago. For that rating, click here.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted November 14-18.
See also
- Presidential Nominating Index: Republican Insiders turn to Rubio
- Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
