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Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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September 10, 2015
While she has seen her once considerable polling advantage evaporate in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton remains the overwhelming pick of Democratic Insiders to capture their party’s 2016 presidential nomination. A Ballotpedia survey of 99 Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives, found that 97 ranked Clinton number one as the candidate they thought was “most likely to capture the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.”
Clinton earned a Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index of .996, almost a perfect rating from the Democratic Insiders.
Ninety-Nine Democratic Insiders were asked to "Rank the top five Democrats, 1 through 5, in terms of who you think is most likely to capture the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination." In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 points, and so on. The Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index is determined by the percentage of points that each contender receives compared to the maximum possible points a contender could receive. For example, Hillary Clinton earned a .996 index rating having received 99.6% of the maximum possible 495 points, which is how many she would have received if all 99 Democratic participants had ranked her first for the candidate most likely to win the nomination. |
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First-place vote breakdown  |
Second-place vote breakdown  |
A comparable survey conducted by National Journal magazine in July 2007 found that Clinton was also the top choice of Democratic Insiders to receive the nod for the party’s 2008 nomination. Her Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index in that survey would have been approximately .930. Democratic Insiders in the 2007 survey picked freshman Illinois Sen. Barack Obama as the candidate most likely to capture the nomination after Clinton. His Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index would have been roughly .790.
The most common refrain among the Democratic influentials in this latest survey is: “Still Hillary's to lose.” One potential roadblock, a very negative development in the controversy over Clinton’s use of a private email system while she was Secretary of State. “Short of an indictment, it is Hillary for sure,” maintained one Democratic Insider. But most seemed to dismiss that possibility. “Secretary Clinton will be the Party’s nominee unless something disqualifying comes from the email ‘scandal,’ which is nothing more than a distraction at this point,” said another Democratic Insider. Added a third, “One thing that seems lost on the media is even during this email controversy Hillary has wide leads nationally in Dem head to heads. She is still a dominant frontrunner.” The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Democratic Insiders.
Vice President Joe Biden, who has yet to state definitively what his intentions are regarding the nomination, is viewed as the most likely alternative to Clinton. Biden received a Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index of .682 and he was ranked as the second choice for winning the nomination by 63 of the 99 Democratic Insiders who participated in the survey.
“Hillary's roller coaster ride to the nomination can only be truly challenged by Biden,” declared one Democratic influential. In a separate Ballotpedia Insiders survey released today, a majority of Democratic Insiders said they didn’t want to see the Vice President jump into the race. And as one put it, “You can’t win if you don't run.”
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who likes to rail against the political establishment and has never been a favorite of party elites, did receive two first-place votes as the candidate most likely to win the nomination, but most Democratic Insiders seem to dismiss his chances. “Sanders is going to fall sharply before [the Iowa] caucusing starts,” predicted on Democratic Insiders who added that the energy and enthusiasm that Sander’s campaign enjoys in the places like Iowa and New Hampshire “isn’t sustainable.”
A few Democratic Insiders noted a downside to Clinton’s perceived dominance for the nomination—the lack of Democratic politicians who are seen as viable challengers to the frontrunner. “Clinton may be a powerful non-incumbent, but the depth of the party right now at the national level is stunningly shallow,” said one Democratic Insider. Another observed: “Hillary is ripe for the taking. This field needs some Metamucil.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted September 4-9.
See also
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
