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Presidential election, 2016/General election polls

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Polls have long been a key component of tracking and analyzing political races, and presidential races are no exception.

Presidential races are closely monitored and polled continuously, as early as two to three years before the actual election. These polls can drive campaign strategy: signaling to those in the lead to stay the course to maintain their standing and telling those in the back of the race that changes may be necessary to remain competitive.

While presidential polls can affect how candidates run their campaigns, candidates should be wary that poll numbers can often be vastly different from the actual outcome of the race. For example, Michael Dukakis was favored over George H. W. Bush by 17 percentage points at times during the 1988 general election campaign. But, the outcome was far different.[1] Bush received 426 electoral votes to Dukakis' 111.[2]

According to one Harvard study, journalists and the media in general focus intently on presidential polls, but in truth, they are poor indicators of how an election will actually play out.[1] Regardless of whether polls can predict election results, they remain a staple of the political coverage of presidential elections.

Below, see a sampling of 2016 presidential general election polls.

2016 general election polls

Clinton vs. Trump - tracking polls

Clinton-Trump 2016 head-to-head tracking polls (November 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
IDB/TIPP tracking poll
November 4-7, 2016
43%42%15%+/-3.11,107
L.A. Times/USC tracking poll
November 1-7, 2016
44%47%9%+/-4.52,935
ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll
November 3-6, 2016
49%46%5%+/-2.52,220
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Tracking polls including third party candidates

Tracking polls including third party candidates - (November 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpLibertarian Party Gary JohnsonGreen Party Jill SteinUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen
November 2-6, 2016
45%43%4%2%6%+/-2.51,500
IDB/TIPP tracking poll
November 4-7, 2016
43%45%8%2%2%+/-3.11,107
ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll
November 3-6, 2016
47%43%4%1%5%+/-2.52,220
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Clinton vs. Trump

Clinton-Trump 2016 head-to-head presidential polls (October-November 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Economist/YouGov
November 4-7, 2016
49%45%6%+/-NA3,669
Bloomberg
November 4-6, 2016
46%43%11%+/-3.5799
Fox News
November 3-6, 2016
48%44%8%+/-2.51,295
CBS News
November 2-6, 2016
47%43%10%+/-31,426
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 31-November-6, 2016
51%44%5%+/-130,145
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
November 3-5, 2016
48%43%9%+/-2.71,282
Fox News
November 1-3, 2016
46%45%9%+/-31,107
McClatchy/Marist
November 1-3, 2016
46%44%10%+/-3.2940
Reuters/Ipsos
October 30-November 3, 2016
44%39%17%+/-2.52,021
Economist/YouGov
October 30-November 1, 2016
48%45%7%+/-3.21,233
CBS News/N.Y. Times
October 28-November 1, 2016
47%44%9%+/-31,333
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 24-30, 2016
51%44%5%+/-140,816
Economist/YouGov
October 22-26, 2016
49%46%5%+/-3.31,209
Fox News
October 22-25, 2016
49%44%7%+/-2.51,221
USA Today/Suffolk
October 20-24, 2016
49%39%12%+/-31,000
Reuters/Ipsos
October 20-24, 2016
43%37%20%+/-3.31,170
Associated Press/GfK
October 20-24, 2016
54%41%5%+/-NA1,212
CNN/ORC
October 20-23, 2016
51%45%4%+/-3.5779
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Clinton-Trump 2016 head-to-head presidential polls (September-October 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac
October 17-18, 2016
50%44%6%+/-3.11,007
Economist/YouGov
October 15-18, 2016
47%43%10%+/-3.9925
Fox News
October 15-17, 2016
49%42%9%+/-3912
Bloomberg
October 14-17, 2016
50%41%9%+/-3.11,006
Monmouth
October 14-16, 2016
53%41%6%+/-3.6726
CBS News
October 12-16, 2016
51%40%9%+/-31,189
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 10-16, 2016
51%43%6%+/-124,804
ABC News/Washington Post
October 10-13, 2016
50%46%4%+/-4740
NBC News/Wall St. Journal
October 10-13, 2016
51%41%8%+/-3.3905
Fox News
October 10-12, 2016
49%41%10%+/-3917
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
October 8-10, 2016
50%40%10%+/-3.5806
Reuters/Ipsos
October 6-10, 2016
44%37%19%+/-2.22,363
PRRI/The Atlantic
October 5-9, 2016
49%38%13%+/-3.9886
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 3-9, 2016
51%44%5%+/-123,329
Economist/YouGov
October 7-8, 2016
48%43%9%+/-4.2971
Quinnipiac
October 5-6, 2016
50%44%6%+/-31,064
Fox News
October 3-6, 2016
48%44%8%+/-3896
Economist/YouGov
October 1-October 3, 2016
48%43%9%+/-3.9911
Reuters/Ipsos
September 29-October 3, 2016
44%37%19%+/-3.21,239
CBS News
September 28-October 2, 2016
49%43%8%+/-41,217
CNN/ORC
September 28-October 2, 2016
51%45%4%+/-31,213
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
September 26-October 2, 2016
50%44%6%+/-126,925
Fox News
September 27-29, 2016
49%44%7%+/-3911
Public Policy Polling
September 27-28, 2016
49%45%6%+/-3.2933
Reuters/Ipsos
September 22-26, 2016
44%38%18%+/-3.51,041
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Clinton-Trump 2016 head-to-head presidential polls (September 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
L.A. Times/USC Tracking
September 20-26, 2016
43%46%11%+/-4.52,726
Monmouth
September 22-25, 2016
49%46%5%+/-3.6729
Quinnipiac
September 22-25, 2016
47%46%7%+/-3.11,115
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
September 19-25, 2016
51%44%5%+/-1.113,598
Economist/YouGov
September 22-24, 2016
48%44%8%+/-3.8948
Bloomberg
September 21-24, 2016
46%46%8%+/-3.11,002
ABC News/Washington Post
September 19-22, 2016
49%47%4%+/-4.5651
McClatchy/Marist
September 15-20, 2016
48%41%11%+/-3.6758
Economist/YouGov
September 18-19, 2016
45%44%11%+/-4936
NBC News/Wall St. Journal
September 16-19, 2016
48%41%11%+/-3.2922
Reuters/Ipsos
September 15-19, 2016
39%39%22%+/-3.41,111
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
September 12-18, 2016
50%45%5%+/-1.213,320
Associated Press/GfK
September 15-16, 2016
50%44%6%+/-NA1,251
Fox News
September 11-14, 2016
45%46%9%+/-3867
Economist/YouGov
September 10-13, 2016
46%44%10%+/-4926
CBS News/N.Y. Times
September 9-13, 2016
46%44%10%+/-31,433
Quinnipiac
September 8-13, 2016
48%43%9%+/-3.2960
Reuters/Ipsos
September 8-12, 2016
40%39%21%+/-3.31,127
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
September 5-11, 2016
48%44%8%+/-1.116,220
ABC News/Washington Post
September 5-8, 2016
51%43%6%+/-4.5642
Economist/YouGov
September 4-6, 2016
44%42%14%+/-4.7955
Reuters/Ipsos
September 1-5, 2016
40%38%22%+/-3.51,084
CNN/ORC
September 1-4, 2016
48%49%3%+/-3.5786
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
August 29-September 4, 2016
48%42%10%+/-132,226
IBD/TIPP
August 26-September 1, 2016
44%43%13%+/-3.4861
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Polling including third party candidates

The following are polls since 2016 on hypothetical presidential match-ups which include third-party candidates.

Polls including third party candidates - (November 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpLibertarian Party Gary JohnsonGreen Party Jill SteinUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Economist/YouGov
November 4-7, 2016
45%41%5%2%7%+/-NA3,677
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Polls including third party candidates - (October-November 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpLibertarian Party Gary JohnsonGreen Party Jill SteinUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Bloomberg
November 4-6, 2016
44%41%4%2%9%+/-3.5799
Fox News
November 3-6, 2016
48%44%3%2%3%+/-2.51,295
CBS News
November 2-6, 2016
45%41%5%2%7%+/-31,426
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
November 3-5, 2016
44%40%6%2%8%+/-2.71,282
Fox News
November 1-3, 2016
45%43%5%2%5%+/-31,107
McClatchy/Marist
November 1-3, 2016
44%43%6%2%5%+/-3.2940
Reuters/Ipsos
October 30-November 3, 2016
44%37%6%2%11%+/-2.52,021
Economist/YouGov
October 30-November 1, 2016
46%43%4%2%5%+/-3.21,233
CBS News/N.Y. Times
October 28-November 1, 2016
45%42%5%4%4%+/-31,333
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 24-30, 2016
47%41%6%3%3%+/-140,816
Economist/YouGov
October 22-26, 2016
46%41%4%2%7%+/-3.31,209
Fox News
October 22-25, 2016
44%41%7%3%5%+/-2.51,221
USA Today/Suffolk
October 20-24, 2016
47%38%4%2%9%+/-31,000
Reuters/Ipsos
October 20-24, 2016
42%38%7%2%11%+/-3.31,170
Associated Press/GfK
October 20-24, 2016
51%37%6%2%4%+/-NA1,212
CNN/ORC
October 20-23, 2016
49%44%3%2%2%+/-3.5779
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 17-23, 2016
46%41%7%3%3%+/-132,225
Quinnipiac
October 17-18, 2016
47%40%7%1%5%+/-3.11,007
Economist/YouGov
October 15-18, 2016
42%38%6%1%13%+/-3.9925
Fox News
October 15-17, 2016
45%39%5%3%8%+/-3912
Bloomberg
October 14-17, 2016
47%38%8%3%4%+/-3.11,006
Monmouth
October 14-16, 2016
50%38%5%2%5%+/-3.6726
CBS News
October 12-16, 2016
47%38%8%3%4%+/-31,189
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 10-16, 2016
46%40%8%4%2%+/-124,804
Rasmussen
October 12-16, 2016
43%41%5%2%9%+/-2.51,500
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Polls including third party candidates - (September-October 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpLibertarian Party Gary JohnsonGreen Party Jill SteinUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
ABC News/Washington Post
October 10-13, 2016
47%43%5%2%3%+/-4740
NBC News/Wall St. Journal
October 10-13, 2016
48%37%7%2%6%+/-3.3905
GWU/Battleground
October 8-13, 2016
47%39%8%2%4%+/-3.11,000
Fox News
October 10-12, 2016
45%38%7%3%7%+/-3917
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
October 8-10, 2016
46%37%8%2%7%+/-3.5806
Reuters/Ipsos
October 6-10, 2016
44%37%6%2%11%+/-2.22,363
Rasmussen
October 5-9, 2016
45%38%7%2%8%+/-2.51,500
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 3-9, 2016
46%41%8%3%2%+/-123,329
Economist/YouGov
October 7-8, 2016
44%38%5%1%12%+/-4.2971
Quinnipiac
October 5-6, 2016
45%40%6%3%6%+/-31,064
Fox News
October 3-6, 2016
44%42%6%2%6%+/-3896
Rasmussen Reports
October 3-5, 2016
41%43%8%3%5%+/-2.51,500
Economist/YouGov
October 1-October 3, 2016
43%40%5%3%9%+/-3.9911
Reuters/Ipsos
September 29-October 3, 2016
42%36%8%2%12%+/-3.21,239
CBS News
September 28-October 2, 2016
45%41%8%3%3%+/-41,217
CNN/ORC
September 28-October 2, 2016
47%42%7%2%2%+/-31,213
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
September 26-October 2, 2016
46%40%9%3%2%+/-126,925
Fox News
September 27-29, 2016
43%40%8%4%5%+/-3911
Public Policy Polling
September 27-28, 2016
44%40%6%1%9%+/-3.2933
Reuters/Ipsos
September 22-26, 2016
42%38%7%2%9%+/-3.51,041
Quinnipiac
September 22-25, 2016
44%43%8%2%3%+/-3.11,115
Monmouth
September 22-25, 2016
46%42%8%2%2%+/-3.6729
Economist/YouGov
September 22-24, 2016
44%41%5%2%8%+/-3.8948
Bloomberg
September 21-24, 2016
41%43%8%4%4%+/-3.11,002
ABC News/Washington Post
September 19-22, 2016
46%44%5%1%4%+/-4.5651
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Polls including third party candidates - (August-September 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpLibertarian Party Gary JohnsonGreen Party Jill SteinUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports
September 20-21, 2016
39%44%8%2%7%+/-31,000
McClatchy/Marist
September 15-20, 2016
45%39%10%4%2%+/-3.6758
Economist/YouGov
September 18-19, 2016
40%38%7%2%13%+/-4936
NBC News/Wall St. Journal
September 16-19, 2016
43%37%9%2%9%+/-3.2922
Reuters/Ipsos
September 15-19, 2016
37%39%7%2%15%+/-3.41,111
NBC News/Survey Monkey
September 12-18, 2016
45%40%10%4%1%+/-1.213,320
Associated Press/GfK
September 15-16, 2016
45%39%9%2%5%+/-01,251
Fox News
September 11-14, 2016
41%40%8%3%8%+/-3867
Rasmussen
September 12-13, 2016
40%42%7%2%9%+/-31,000
Economist/YouGov
September 10-13, 2016
42%40%5%3%10%+/-4926
CBS News/N.Y. Times
September 9-13, 2016
42%42%8%4%4%+/-31,433
Quinnipiac
September 8-13, 2016
41%39%13%4%3%+/-3.2960
Reuters/Ipsos
September 8-12, 2016
39%39%8%2%12%+/-3.31,127
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
September 5-11, 2016
42%40%11%4%3%+/-1.116,220
Gravis
September 7-8, 2016
43%40%7%1%9%+/-22,348
ABC News/Washington Post
September 5-8, 2016
46%41%9%2%2%+/-4.5642
Rasmussen
September 6-7, 2016
43%39%9%2%7%+/-31,000
Economist/YouGov
September 4-6, 2016
40%38%7%5%10%+/-4.7955
CNN/ORC
September 1-4, 2016
43%45%7%2%3%+/-3.5786
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
August 29-September 4, 2016
41%37%12%4%6%+/-132,226
IBD/TIPP
August 26-September 1, 2016
39%39%12%3%7%+/-3.4861
Rasmussen Reports
August 29-30, 2016
39%40%7%3%11%+/-31,000
Fox News
August 28-30, 2016
41%39%9%4%7%+/-31,011
Reuters/Ipsos
August 25-29, 2016
40%38%6%2%14%+/-31,404
USA Today/Suffolk
August 24-29, 2016
42%35%9%4%10%+/-31,000
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Ballotpedia Battleground Poll (June 10-22, 2016)

See also: Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016

Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preferences. We tested six election scenarios. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R). In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former governor Gary Johnson.

In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump. The tightest battleground race between the two frontrunners was in Iowa, where Clinton led Trump by a weighted 4 percentage points. Clinton saw the largest lead in Michigan, where she led Trump by a weighted 17 percentage points. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states.


BP Poll - Survey Results (percent support) Chart.png
Evolving Strategies and Ballotpedia surveyed 4,242 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.0%.

State-specific public opinion polls

Click on a state in the map below to view presidential polls conducted on statewide sample groups, plus additional state-specific election information.

http://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_STATE,_2016


Recent news

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms 2016 Presidential Poll. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

See also

External links

Footnotes