Presidential election in Michigan, 2016

Michigan
	2020 →
	; Choose a different state; Select a state Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
	General election in Michigan
	Date: November 8, 2016; 2016 winner: Donald Trump; Electoral votes: 16; 2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)
	Democratic Primary
	Date: March 8, 2016; Winner: Bernie Sanders
	Republican Primary
	Date: March 8, 2016; Winner: Donald Trump
	Down ballot races in Michigan
	U.S. House; Michigan House of Representatives; Michigan judicial elections; Michigan local judicial elections; School boards; Recalls; Click here for more elections in Michigan
	Have you subscribed yet? Join the hundreds of thousands of readers trusting Ballotpedia to keep them up to date with the latest political news. Sign up for the Daily Brew. ; Click here to learn more.

See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016

Michigan held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Democratic and Republican primaries took place on March 8, 2016. For both parties, Michigan was the last major electoral contest before the March 15 primaries and caucuses, which featured five states, including Florida and Ohio. Michigan was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election.

HIGHLIGHTS

Donald Trump won Michigan in the general election. The state remained uncalled until November 28, 2016.

In 2016, Michigan had 16 electoral votes, which was 3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 6 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Between 1900 and 2012, Michigan cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 72.41 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Michigan supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 58.62 to 41.38 percent. The state favored Democrats in every presidential election between between 2000 and 2012.

Presidential primary elections in Michigan took place on March 8, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 49.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 36.5 percent.

General election candidates and results

See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Michigan secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

Presidential candidates on the ballot in Michigan

☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)

☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)

☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)

☐ Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley (U.S. Taxpayers)

☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)

☐ Emidio Soltysik/Angela Nicole Walker (Natural Law)

Results

U.S. presidential election, Michigan, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine	47.3%	2,268,839	0
	Republican	Donald Trump/Mike Pence	47.5%	2,279,543	16
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Bill Weld	3.6%	172,136	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka	1.1%	51,463	0
	U.S. Taxpayers	Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley	0.3%	16,139	0
	Natural Law	Emidio Soltysik/Angela Nicole Walker	0%	2,209	0
	Other	Write-in votes	0.2%	8,955	0
Total Votes				4,799,284	16
Election results via: Michigan Department of State

Recount

Green Party nominee Jill Stein filed requests for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in late November 2016. Read more about the recount efforts below.

Wisconsin

On November 25, 2016, the Wisconsin state election board accepted a request from Stein for a statewide recount, though the Wisconsin Elections Commission rejected her request for a recount by hand.^[1] Stein told CNN that "this was a hacked election," adding in a statement, "These concerns need to be investigated before the 2016 presidential election is certified."^[2]^[3]

Wisconsin concluded its recount on December 12, 2016, and found that Trump defeated Clinton by more than 22,000 votes.^[4]

Michigan

Stein filed an official request for a recount in Michigan on November 30, 2016, which was the deadline in Michigan for requesting a recount. In a statement, Stein said, "The people of Michigan and all Americans deserve a voting system we can trust. After a presidential election tarnished by the use of outdated and unreliable machines and accusations of irregularities, people of all political persuasions are asking if our election results are reliable. We need to verify the vote in this and every election so that Americans can be sure we have a fair, secure and accurate voting system." The chair of the Michigan state GOP, Ronna Romney McDaniel, responded to news of the recount critically, saying, "The filing by Jill Stein is a reckless attempt to undermine the will of Michigan voters. Jill Stein made her 1% temper tantrum official and will waste millions of Michigan taxpayers’ dollars, and has acknowledged that the recount will not change anything regarding the Presidential election."^[5]

US District Judge Mark Goldsmith ordered the Michigan Board of Elections to stop the recount on December 8, 2016. Goldsmith stated that Stein had "not presented evidence of tampering or mistake" but had instead presented "speculative claims going to the vulnerability of the voting machinery." He added, "A recount as an audit of the election has never been endorsed by any court." On Twitter, Stein responded by saying, "It's disheartening a judge gave in to Donald Trump and Michigan Republicans, and lifted his emergency order that had kicked off #RecountMI."^[6]

Pennsylvania

Stein filed a petition for a recount in Pennsylvania on November 28, 2016.^[7] On December 12, 2016, U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond halted the recount in Pennsylvania, saying, "there is no credible evidence that any 'hack' occurred, and compelling evidence that Pennsylvania's voting system was not in any way compromised."^[4]

Clinton campaign reaction

On November 26, 2016, Hillary Clinton's campaign announced its intentions to participate in the recount process. Marc Elias, the Clinton campaign's general counsel, said in a statement, "Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides. If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well."^[8]

On November 22, 2016, it was reported that a group of computer scientists and election lawyers were encouraging Clinton to request a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania on the grounds that the results in those states "may have been manipulated or hacked."^[9]

Trump campaign reaction

Donald Trump criticized the recount effort. On Twitter, he said, "Hillary Clinton conceded the election when she called me just prior to the victory speech and after the results were in. Nothing will change." In an official statement, he added, "This is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded, and the results of this election should be respected instead of being challenged and abused, which is exactly what Jill Stein is doing."^[10]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.^[11] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

Historical election trends

Note: Michigan, as of this update, has not yet reported its results for the 2016 presidential election.

See also: Presidential election accuracy

Below is an analysis of Michigan's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

Presidential election voting record in Michigan, 1900-2016

Between 1900 and 2016:

Michigan participated in 30 presidential elections.
Michigan voted for the winning presidential candidate 73.33 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.^[12]
Michigan voted Democratic 40 percent of the time and Republican 60 percent of the time.

Third party vote

In 1912, Woodrow Wilson ran as the Democratic candidate, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a Progressive candidate, and William H. Taft ran as the Republican candidate. Taft won Utah and Vermont, while Roosevelt won 11 electoral votes (Wilson got two) from California, 15 from Michigan, 12 from Minnesota, 38 in Pennsylvania, five from South Dakota, and seven from Washington.^[13]

Presidential election voting record in Michigan, 2000-2016

Accuracy: 60 percent^[14]
2000 state winner: Al Gore (D)
2004 state winner: John Kerry (D)
2008 state winner: Barack Obama (D)*
2012 state winner: Barack Obama (D)*
2016 state winner: Donald Trump (R)*

*An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

Election results

2012

U.S. presidential election, Michigan, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	54.2%	2,564,569	16
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	44.7%	2,115,256	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.5%	21,897	0
	Natural Law	Ross Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez	0.1%	5,147	0
	U.S. Taxpayers	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0.3%	16,119	0
	Write-in	Write-in candidates	0.2%	7,973	0
Total Votes				4,730,961	16
Election results via: Michigan Secretary of State

2008

U.S. presidential election, Michigan, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	57.4%	2,872,579	17
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	41%	2,048,639	0
	Natural Law	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.7%	33,085	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.5%	23,716	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.2%	8,892	0
	U.S. Taxpayers	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle	0.3%	14,685	0
	Write-in	Write-in candidates	0%	170	0
Total Votes				5,001,766	17
Election results via: Michigan Secretary of State

Polling

Michigan polls (2016)

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

Ballotpedia Battleground Poll

See also: Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016

Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven battleground states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preference. We tested six election scenarios. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R). In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former Governor Gary Johnson. In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states. See the table below for the battleground poll results from Michigan.

Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Michigan): Head-to-head
Poll	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump	Neither or refused	Margin of error	Sample size
Clinton vs. Trump (June 10-22, 2016)	50%	33%	17%	+/- 4	612
	Hillary Clinton	John Kasich	Neither or refused	Margin of error	Sample size
Clinton vs. Kasich (June 10-22, 2016)	41%	42%	17%	+/-4	612
	Hillary Clinton	Paul Ryan	Neither or refused	Margin of error	Sample size
Clinton vs. Ryan (June 10-22, 2016)	45%	39%	16%	+/- 4	612

Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Michigan): Three-way
	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump	Gary Johnson	Neither or refused	Margin of error	Sample size
Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016)	47%	30%	14%	9%	+/- 4	612
	Hillary Clinton	John Kasich	Gary Johnson	Neither or refused	Margin of error	Sample size
Clinton vs. Kasich vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016)	42%	38%	8%	12%	+/- 4	612
	Hillary Clinton	Paul Ryan	Gary Johnson	Neither or refused	Margin of error	Sample size
Clinton vs. Ryan vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016)	44%	35%	9%	11%	+/- 4	612

Electoral votes

See also: Electoral College

The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

Michigan electors

In 2016, Michigan had 16 electoral votes. Michigan's share of electoral votes represented 3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 6 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republican electors in Michigan were selected at state party conventions.

"Faithless electors"

The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.^[15]^[16]

Michigan was one of 31 states in 2016—including the District of Columbia—with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

State campaign staff

Prior to the November 8, 2016, election, each campaign put in place paid staff, volunteers, and political operatives in each state in efforts to gain votes and influence voter turnout on election day. The following details some of the key staff for each campaign in Michigan.

Hillary Clinton

For Hillary Clinton's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Marlon Marshall, the campaign's director of state campaigns and political engagement. The key staff in Michigan consisted of:

Walt Herzig, State director: Herzig joined the Clinton campaign as state director in June 2016. He was on leave from his position as the district director for U.S. Rep. Sandy Levin (D-Mich.). Herzig, who managed the 2010 gubernatorial campaign of Virg Bernero, was also a longtime aide to the administration of former Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), serving as chief of staff to Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D) for two years.

Stephen Neuman, Senior advisor: Neuman was a senior advisor to the Democratic Party of Michigan's coordinated campaign with the Clinton campaign.^[17] He formerly worked as chief of staff to Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) and as director of public affairs for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D).^[18]

Donald Trump

For Donald Trump's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Michael Biundo, the campaign's senior political advisor. The key staff in Michigan consisted of:

Scott Hagerstrom, State director: Hagerstrom joined the campaign in December 2015. He previously worked as the Michigan state director for Americans for Prosperity and was a prominent opponent of Michigan Proposal 1 in 2015. A lawyer from Lansing, Michigan, Hagerstrom was a district-level delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention.

Down ballot races

See also: Michigan elections, 2016

Below is a list of down ballot races in Michigan covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

Primary election

Quick facts

Democrats:

2016 Democratic winner: Bernie Sanders
Poll leader: Hillary Clinton
2008 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
Type: Open Primary
Delegate allocation: Proportional
Pledged delegates at stake: 130
Total delegates at stake: 147

Republicans

2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
Poll leader: Donald Trump
2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
Type: Open Primary
Delegate allocation: Proportional
Pledged delegates at stake: 59
Total delegates at stake: 59

Democrats

In a major upset over Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders won the Michigan Democratic primary election. Polling in early March and late February showed Clinton with a lead over Sanders ranging from 11 to more than 30 points. But, as Ballotpedia senior writer Jim Barnes wrote in an analysis leading up to March 8, "Michigan has a history of delivering presidential primary upsets." Sanders won 50 to 48 percent.

Exit poll data, a representative sampling of voters as they left their precinct polling stations, shows that several major voting groups were sharply divided between Clinton and Sanders. Clinton won women 51 to 46 percent, while Sanders won college graduates 51 to 48 percent and voters without college degrees 49 to 48 percent. Voters with incomes under $50,000 supported Sanders over Clinton 51 to 46 percent. Voters with incomes above $50,000 backed him 50 to 49 percent. With other groups, the divide was more significant. Clinton won older voters 61 to 36 percent and African-Americans 65 to 31 percent. Sanders, on the other hand, outperformed Clinton with white voters 57 to 41 percent and younger voters 67 to 32 percent. Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 backed him over Clinton 87 to 13 percent. Fifty-eight percent of Democratic primary voters in Michigan said international trade "takes away U.S. jobs." Sanders, who has taken stances against international trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, won a majority of those voters.^[19] 130 pledged delegates were at stake. For more on Sanders' win, see How Sanders won Michigan.

Republicans

Donald Trump won the Michigan Republican primary with 37 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz and John Kasich took second and third place.^[20] Exit poll data shows that Trump, Cruz and Kasich competed closely for support from a variety of different voting groups. Trump outperformed his rivals with men, older voters and voters without college degrees. Voters between the ages of 18 and 44 supported Trump and Cruz 31 and 29 percent. Trump and Cruz had an equal share of female voters, at 29 percent each. Twenty-five percent of women voters backed John Kasich. Evangelical Christian voters supported Trump over Cruz 37 to 32 percent. The political ideology of Republican primary voters in Michigan seems to have mattered a great deal in terms of which candidate they supported. Cruz won Republican voters who identified as "very conservative." Trump won over voters who viewed themselves as "somewhat conservative," while voters who saw themselves as "moderate" supported Trump and Kasich. Fifty percent of Republican primary voters in Michigan felt that the next president should be "outside the establishment," and 87 percent said they were "angry" or "dissatisfied" with the federal government. Trump outperformed his rivals with both of these groups.^[19]

Trump led in polls conducted in early March and late February by margins of 15 points or more. Cruz and Kasich trailed in second and third place, respectively. The Republicans held a debate in Michigan on March 3, 2016. A group of more than 70 GOP strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives surveyed by Ballotpedia after the debate found Kasich to have been the winner. That same group argued that Trump did more harm to his campaign than good in the debate. Fifty-nine delegates were up for grabs on the Republican side. For more on Trump's win in Michigan, see Trump has another Super Tuesday.

Three other states also held primaries or caucuses on March 8: Hawaii, Idaho and Mississippi.