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Presidential primaries: No room for latecomers
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
December 6, 2015
Last week two shrewd observers of presidential politics, Bloomberg’s Mark Halperin and John Heilemann, were musing with a guest on their television show, With All Due Respect, about what circumstances might possibly entice House Speaker Paul Ryan or 2012 standard bearer Mitt Romney to jump into the contest for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. The scenario generally goes something like this: Donald Trump wins key early nominating contests and the party establishment begs Ryan or Romney to get into the race to stop the outspoken outsider.
Halperin and Heilemann were being more speculative than serious, and indeed, both well know that there’s no room for latecomers in the modern presidential system.
The calendar just kills you. Filing deadlines for presidential primaries next year have already begun to close. By December 17, the filing deadlines for 14 GOP primaries and one caucus will have passed. Those 15 states account for 862 delegates who will travel to Cleveland to attend the Republican National Convention in July. That number represents roughly 35 percent of the convention’s 2,472 delegate total. By the end of the year, the filing deadline for two more primaries, North Carolina’s and Missouri’s will have passed. Those two states account for 122 delegates or another five percent of the GOP convention total. For a complete calendar of the primaries, caucuses and their delegates, click here.
But the calculus for figuring out how to win the nomination is even crueler for a candidate who might attempt to enter the race next year. Take 984 delegates off the board and you’re left with 1,488 to compete for. It takes 1,237 delegates to capture the Republican nomination. Do the math: a candidate would have to capture 83 percent of the remaining delegates up for grabs to be assured of a first ballot victory.
The last time a major candidate seriously considered entering the primaries late was in 1980. Early that year, establishment and moderate Republicans fretted that Ronald Reagan, who had just won the Feb. 26 New Hampshire primary, was too conservative to unseat incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter. They hoped that former President Gerald R. Ford, who had narrowly defeated Reagan in the 1976 GOP nominating contest, might jump into the race late. Ford and his advisers explored the idea, but the former president announced on March 15, 1980, that he wouldn’t be a late entrant in the Republican contest.
Vice President Joe Biden reached a similar conclusion almost seven weeks ago when he decided not to jump into the 2016 Democratic race. Addressing a Rose Garden audience with his wife, Jill Biden, and President Barack Obama at his side, Biden declared that, “the window has closed” on his chances for a 2016 run. No filing deadlines had been missed, but they were looming for Democratic primaries in Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas and Michigan. Given the ballot access requirements in some places, and the rigors of standing up a national campaign apparatus, Biden realized he had run out of time.
Any White House hopeful who jumped into the race late would have to hope that by winning some key remaining primaries that a candidate did meet the filing deadlines for, he or she would demonstrate their appeal and vote-getting ability and also prevent another candidate from locking up the nomination. At that point it would be horse-trading among candidates and delegates at the convention that would determine who would be nominated.
The last time late-entering candidates won a primary in nominating contest came in 1976, when California Gov. Jerry Brown and Idaho Sen. Frank Church jumped into the Democratic presidential race in hopes of blocking Jimmy Carter’s march to the nomination. Church and Brown were somewhat successful. Church won the Nebraska primary on May 11 and then Brown captured the Maryland primary a week later. Church and Brown won additional primaries that year, but neither were able to win enough to deny Carter the Democratic nod.
And the Republican rules aren’t going to be bent to make it easier for any latecomers to the party. In a 2012 exchange between then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her informal adviser Sid Blumenthal that was discovered in a recently released cache of her emails, the two discussed how Republican leaders might cope with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who had just upset Romney in the South Carolina GOP primary. Referring to Romney and Gingrich as “Mittens” and “Grinch,” respectively, Clinton wrote: “If Mittens can’t beat Grinch in Florida, there will be pressure on state Republican parties to reopen or liberalize ballot access especially in the caucuses, which as we know are creatures of the parties’ extremes.”
Clinton is a savvy politician who may well capture the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, but she does not have a very good grasp of the GOP nominating process. Grassroots Republican activists and state parties zealously guard their prerogatives to set their own rules within guidelines established by national parties before the nominating contest begins. Most would strenuously resist efforts to change them in the middle of a race. That was true in 2012 and it is true today. There is just no room for latecomers in the presidential game.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted November 14-18.
See also
- 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules
- Ballot access for presidential candidates
- Presidential Nominating Index: Republican Insiders turn to Rubio
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
