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Primary change: August ends with 100th Republican incumbent losing in a primary in 2012

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August 29, 2012

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By Geoff Pallay

MADISON, Wisconsin: A busy month of primaries came to a close yesterday with three voters going to the polls in Alaska, Arizona and Vermont. At least two incumbents fell in primaries -- both in Alaska -- bringing this year's total of incumbents defeated to 157.

On July 26, 2012, Ballotpedia released an analysis of the rate at which incumbents are being defeated by challengers in state legislative primaries. That study was conducted roughly halfway through the primary season, and found that 76 incumbents had been defeated through the first 48 percent of primaries. After each primary, we will update those figures. This update focuses on Alaska, Arizona and Vermont.

Of the 157 incumbents that have lost a primary in 2012, 57 are Democratic incumbents and 100 are Republican incumbents. Thus far, 17.16 percent of incumbents facing a primary opponent have been defeated.

Alaska

A total of 53 Alaska legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Seventeen incumbents faced a primary, and opponents were victorious in two of those races. Thus, 11.76 percent of opposed incumbents were defeated by their primary challenger.

The two total incumbents who lost last night is higher than the 0 total incumbents who lost a 2010 primary in Alaska. There are still two races that are too close to call involving incumbents.

Arizona

A total of 59 Arizona legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Twenty-seven incumbents faced a primary, and opponents were victorious in none of those races.

The 0 total incumbents who lost last night is much lower than the four who lost in 2010. There are still three races that are too close to call involving incumbents.

Vermont

A total of 155 Vermont legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Thirteen incumbents faced a primary, and opponents were victorious in none of those races.

The 0 total incumbents who lost last night is the same as in 2010.

What's next

The next state legislative primaries takes place Thursday, September 6 in Massachusetts.

Cumulative table of results

Individual State Results Nationwide Cumulative Results
State Primary date Total Incumbents Running Total Incumbents Facing Primary Total Incumbents Defeated % Incumbents Defeated*** Total Incumbents Defeated Total Incumbents Facing primary % Incumbents Defeated***
Alaska 8/28/2012 53 17 2^^^ 11.76% 157 915 17.16%
Arizona 8/28/2012 59 27 0&&& Pending 157 915 17.16%
Vermont 8/28/2012 155 13 0 0% 157 915 17.16%
Wyoming 8/21/2012 60 21 3 14.29% 155 858 18.07%
Connecticut 8/14/2012 161 9 4 44.44% 152 837 18.16%
Florida 8/14/2012 111 36 3 8.33% 152 837 18.16%
Minnesota 8/14/2012 158 11 1 9.09% 152 837 18.16%
Wisconsin 8/14/2012 94 16 2 12.50% 152 837 18.16%
Hawaii 8/11/2012 71 27 5 18.5% 142 765 18.56%
Kansas 8/7/2012 129 53 20 37.74% 137 738 18.56%
Michigan 8/7/2012 91 36 5 13.89% 137 738 18.56%
Missouri 8/7/2012 126 35 8 22.86% 137 738 18.56%
Washington 8/7/2012 93 14 0 0% 137 738 18.56%
Tennessee 8/2/2012 104 37 12 32.43% 104 600 17.33%
Georgia 7/31/2012 210 50 12+++ 24.00% 92 563 16.34%
Utah 6/26/2012 78 29 8 27.59% 80 513 15.59%
Colorado 6/26/2012 54 5 2 40.00% 72 484 14.88%
Oklahoma 6/26/2012 105 12 1 8.33% 70 479 14.61%
Maine 6/12/2012 121 5 0 0.00% 69 467 14.78%
Nevada 6/12/2012 36 12 2 16.67% 69 462 14.94%
South Carolina 6/12/2012 146 37 6 16.22% 67 450 14.89%
North Dakota 6/12/2012 61 7 4 57.14% 61 413 14.77%
California 6/5/2012 56 20 0 0.00% 57 406 14.04%
Montana 6/5/2012 82 17 4 23.53% 57 386 14.77%
Iowa 6/5/2012 97 16 3 18.75% 53 369 14.36%
New Mexico 6/5/2012 92 29 5 17.24% 50 353 14.16%
South Dakota 6/5/2012 74 23 5 21.74% 45 324 13.89%
Texas 5/29/2012 147 45 11 24.44% 40 301 13.29%
Kentucky 5/22/2012 106 21 1 4.76% 29 256 11.33%
Arkansas 5/22/2012 88 14 2 14.29% 28 235 11.91%
Nebraska 5/15/2012 17 5 0 0.00% 26 221 11.76%
Oregon 5/15/2012 66 4 2 50.00% 26 216 12.04%
Idaho 5/15/2012 70 34 3 8.82% 24 212 11.32%
West Virginia 5/8/2012 98 37 2 5.41% 21 178 11.80%
Indiana 5/8/2012 105 17 0 0.00% 19 141 13.48%
North Carolina 5/8/2012 128 39 7 17.95% 19 124 15.32%
Pennsylvania 4/24/2012 210 37 5 13.51% 12 85 14.12%
Illinois 3/20/2012 149 33 6 18.18% 7 48 14.58%
Ohio 3/6/2012 101 15 1 6.67% 1 15 6.67%
***Note: The percent is calculated by dividing the total number of incumbents who lost by the number of incumbents who actually faced a primary. It is not using the total number of incumbents who ran for re-election.

+++A 12th incumbent lost in the Georgia August 21, 2012 runoff. Eleven incumbents lost in the July 31 primary.

&&& As of August 29, there are still three races involving incumbents that are too close to call.

^^^ As of August 29, there are still two races involving incumbents that are too close to call.

Full study

See also

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