Primary change: Georgia voters bring incumbent defeat rate above 16 percent
August 2, 2012
By Geoff Pallay
MADISON, Wisconsin: On July 26, 2012, Ballotpedia released an analysis of the rate at which incumbents are being defeated by challengers in state legislative primaries. That study was conducted roughly halfway through the primary season, and found that 76 incumbents had been defeated through the first 48 percent of primaries. After each primary, we will update those figures. This update focuses on Georgia and Texas, where a total of 15 incumbents fell to opponents on July 31, 2012.
A total of 210 Georgia legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Fifty incumbents faced a primary, and challengers were victorious in 11 of those races. Thus, 22 percent of opposed incumbents were defeated by their primary challenger.
Additionally, that night four incumbent state legislators in Texas were defeated in primary runoff races. That brought the Texas total to 11, after seven incumbents had already been defeated in the May 29, 2012 Texas primary.
The 15 total incumbents who lost on July 31 brought the nationwide figure to 91 defeated in 2012 primaries. Incumbents have been defeated in 16.16 percent of the primaries where they faced an actual opponent.
Of the 91 incumbents that have lost a primary in 2012, 27 are Democratic incumbents and 64 are Republican incumbents.
What's next
The next state legislative primary takes place tonight in Tennessee. A total of 115 seats will be on the ballot. There are 37 incumbents facing a primary opponent. We'll have detailed results tomorrow.
Cumulative table of results
| Individual State Results | Nationwide Cumulative Results | ||||||||
| State | Primary date | Total Incumbents Running | Total Incumbents Facing Primary | Total Incumbents Defeated | % Incumbents Defeated*** | Total Incumbents Defeated | Total Incumbents Facing primary | % Incumbents Defeated*** | |
| Georgia | 7/31/2012 | 210 | 50 | 11 | 22.00% | 91 | 563 | 16.16% | |
| Utah | 6/26/2012 | 78 | 29 | 8 | 27.59% | 80 | 513 | 15.59% | |
| Colorado | 6/26/2012 | 54 | 5 | 2 | 40.00% | 72 | 484 | 14.88% | |
| Oklahoma | 6/26/2012 | 105 | 12 | 1 | 8.33% | 70 | 479 | 14.61% | |
| Maine | 6/12/2012 | 121 | 5 | 0 | 0.00% | 69 | 467 | 14.78% | |
| Nevada | 6/12/2012 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 16.67% | 69 | 462 | 14.94% | |
| South Carolina | 6/12/2012 | 146 | 37 | 6 | 16.22% | 67 | 450 | 14.89% | |
| North Dakota | 6/12/2012 | 75 | 7 | 4 | 57.14% | 61 | 413 | 14.77% | |
| California | 6/5/2012 | 56 | 20 | 0 | 0.00% | 57 | 406 | 14.04% | |
| Montana | 6/5/2012 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 23.53% | 57 | 386 | 14.77% | |
| Iowa | 6/5/2012 | 97 | 16 | 3 | 18.75% | 53 | 369 | 14.36% | |
| New Mexico | 6/5/2012 | 92 | 29 | 5 | 17.24% | 50 | 353 | 14.16% | |
| South Dakota | 6/5/2012 | 74 | 23 | 5 | 21.74% | 45 | 324 | 13.89% | |
| Texas | 5/29/2012 | 147 | 45 | 11 | 24.44% | 40 | 301 | 13.29% | |
| Kentucky | 5/22/2012 | 106 | 21 | 1 | 4.76% | 29 | 256 | 11.33% | |
| Arkansas | 5/22/2012 | 88 | 14 | 2 | 14.29% | 28 | 235 | 11.91% | |
| Nebraska | 5/15/2012 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0.00% | 26 | 221 | 11.76% | |
| Oregon | 5/15/2012 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 50.00% | 26 | 216 | 12.04% | |
| Idaho | 5/15/2012 | 70 | 34 | 3 | 8.82% | 24 | 212 | 11.32% | |
| West Virginia | 5/8/2012 | 98 | 37 | 2 | 5.41% | 21 | 178 | 11.80% | |
| Indiana | 5/8/2012 | 105 | 17 | 0 | 0.00% | 19 | 141 | 13.48% | |
| North Carolina | 5/8/2012 | 128 | 39 | 7 | 17.95% | 19 | 124 | 15.32% | |
| Pennsylvania | 4/24/2012 | 210 | 37 | 5 | 13.51% | 12 | 85 | 14.12% | |
| Illinois | 3/20/2012 | 149 | 33 | 6 | 18.18% | 7 | 48 | 14.58% | |
| Ohio | 3/6/2012 | 101 | 15 | 1 | 6.67% | 1 | 15 | 6.67% | |
| ***Note: The percent is calculated by dividing the total number of incumbents who lost by the number of incumbents who actually faced a primary. It is not using the total number of incumbents who ran for re-election. | |||||||||
Full study
See also
- Incumbents defeated in 2012's state legislative elections
- State legislative elections, 2012
- 2012 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Analysis for 2012
- Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2012 state legislative elections
- Open seats in the 2012 state legislative elections
- Incumbents with a primary challenger in the 2012 state legislative elections
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