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Projected outcomes of state house elections, 2012
Democrats Before election: 17 Predicted after election: 16 (Excluding 4 Toss-ups) Actual: 21 |
Republicans Before election: 31 Predicted after election: 29 (Excluding 4 Toss-ups) Actual: 28 |
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*Note: There was one house that was tied heading into the 2012 elections -- Oregon. Additionally, Nebraska does not have a state house. |
Month | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Toss Up | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R |
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August 1, 2012 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 |
September 1, 2012 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 14 |
October 1, 2012 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 15 |
November 1, 2012 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
Note: Since there are 49 state houses (Nebraska only has a senate), a political party is defined as having the majority of state houses if it has at least 25. The Democratic Party needs to win all the Safe, Likely and Leans Democratic states, Toss Up states, and four Lean GOP states to get to 25. The Republican Party needs to win all the Safe and Likely GOP states and one Lean GOP state to get to 25. |
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Safe D | Likely Dem. | Leans Dem. | Toss Up | Leans GOP | Likely GOP | Safe R | |
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California (D) Connecticut (D) Delaware (D) Hawaii (D) Illinois (D) Massachusetts (D) New York (D) Rhode Island (D) Vermont (D) West Virginia (D) Not up: Maryland (D) Mississippi (D) New Jersey (D) |
Washington (D) |
Kentucky (D) Nevada (D) |
Colorado (R) Maine (R) Minnesota (R) Oregon (Even split) |
Possible R Pick-up: Arkansas (D) New Mexico (D) Alaska (R) Iowa (R) Michigan (R) New Hampshire (R) |
Arizona (R) Missouri (R) Ohio (R) Pennsylvania (R) Wisconsin (R) |
Florida (R) Georgia (R) Idaho (R) Indiana (R) Kansas (R) Montana (R) North Carolina (R) North Dakota (R) Oklahoma (R) South Carolina (R) South Dakota (R) Tennessee (R) Texas (R) Utah (R) Wyoming (R) Not up: Alabama (R) Louisiana (R) Virginia (R) | |
August changes: Ohio to likely R; New Hampshire to lean R September changes: Montana to Safe R October changes: Arkansas to Lean Republican; Pennsylvania to Likely Republican |
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