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Rachel Bitecofer
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| Rachel Bitecofer | |
 | |
| Basic facts | |
| Organization: | The Cycle |
| Role: | Editor |
| Location: | Washington, D.C. |
| Expertise: | Election analysis |
| Website: | Official website |
Rachel Bitecofer is an election forecaster and founding editor of The Cycle. As of October 2020, she also served as a senior adviser to the Lincoln Project.[1][2]
Career
Bitecofer graduated from the University of Oregon with a bachelor’s degree in political science in 2009. She earned a Ph.D. in political science and international affairs in 2015. She began working as an instructor at the University of Georgia in 2012. She taught at Christopher Newport University from 2015 to 2020.[1][3]
Election forecasts
Bitecofer publishes election forecasts for presidential and congressional elections based on demographic data. She described her methodology as follows in March 2020:[4]
| “ |
As a reminder, because my forecasting work predicts the two-party vote share for Democrats in each state on Election Day using fixed demographic data, and not polls, it’s not going to provide you the exciting weekly (or even daily) updates you’ve grown accustomed to from the probability models like the 538 model or this up-and-coming probability model by Jack Kersting, which you really should check out. My model is the first of its kind — a demographics model predicting vote share, not a probability of winning. It uses a state’s party competition level (Cook PVI Scores, known as partisan voting indexes), percent of college-educated population, and percent of nonwhite population to estimate Biden’s two-party vote share; a quantitative methodology that performed quite well in anticipating where Democrats would gain seats in the House of Representatives in 2018.[5] |
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Recent news
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See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 The Cycle, "About Dr. Rachel Bitecofer," accessed October 19, 2020
- ↑ The Lincoln Project, "Our Team," accessed October 19, 2020
- ↑ LinkedIn, "Rachel Bitecofer," accessed September 16, 2020
- ↑ Niskanen Center, "A Post-Democratic Primary Update to the Bitecofer Model," March 24, 2020
- ↑ Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
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