School board incumbency analysis: 2015 success rates
 Election Analysis |
Methods of election Opposition Non-incumbent success rates |
Success rates |
Analysis of incumbency advantage in the 2014 school board elections |
School board elections, 2015 |
The by-district method had more school board incumbents running for re-election, running unopposed and winning overall than any other method of election in 2015. Incumbents were also more likely to run for re-election, run unopposed and win additional terms in nonpartisan races, compared to races in which candidates ran with a political party designation. They were also more likely to win in nonpartisan primary elections, compared to any other election type. This changed, however, when there there a total of three candidates in the race. When that happened, they won more often in Democratic and Republican primaries.
The following sections analyze incumbency success rates by election method, by number of challengers and by election returns. Success rates were calculated by counting the number of incumbents who ultimately won re-election. Success rates were split into two types: overall and contested.
- Overall success rates include all incumbents who won re-election.
- Contested success rates include only incumbents who faced at least one challenger in their bids to retain their seats.
Methodology
This report looks at overall numbers from the 2015 school board elections related to incumbency success in the top 1,000 school districts in the United States by enrollment. Of those districts, 440 held school board elections. These elections took place in 32 states. The 18 states where the largest districts by enrollment did not hold elections in 2015 were Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. These states are not included in this report.
The elections in the 2015 scope were not equally divided across states. The range runs from a high of 218 school board seats on the ballot in Texas to a low of one seat on the ballot in Mississippi. The comparisons made in the report are not representative of each state as a whole; rather, they demonstrate the relative incumbency success rates among the largest districts of each state, with varying sample sizes in each location. To mitigate the unequal representation by state, this report also looks at incumbency success rates by enrollment size. School districts were compared by eight enrollment ranges, with the largest enrollment size at over 100,000 students and the smallest enrollment size below 10,000 students.
The total number of candidates includes a small number of duplicates as certain individuals ran for multiple seats. If that was the case, they were counted for each seat they ran to represent. To calculate the percentage of unopposed seats and the average number of candidates who ran per seat, this report counts only formal candidates. Candidates are considered formal candidates if they went through the regular filing process stipulated for school board elections in their state. Write-in candidates are not considered formal candidates as laws vary greatly across the states in how they file for election or if they have to file at all.
Because write-in candidates were not calculated as formal candidates, any incumbent who faced only write-in challengers was considered unopposed. No write-in candidate beat an incumbent to win a seat in 2015; they only took open seats. Incumbents were also considered unopposed if no formal candidate filed to challenge them who could actually defeat them. For example, if minor party requirements were used, and the number of minor party candidates equaled the number of seats required to be filled by a minor party representative, those minor party candidates were considered unopposed. Incumbents were not considered unopposed if they faced any challenge throughout their election process. For example, if they saw opposition in a primary but not a general election, they were still considered opposed.
Success rates by election method
Success rates for incumbents in 2015 varied depending on the method in which elections were conducted. The following sections analyze incumbency success rates based on election method, the partisan nature of elections and the type of election held.
At-large and by-district elections
Ballotpedia tracked four types of election methods that were used in the 2015 school board elections: at large, by district, a combination of those two and multi-member district elections. At-large and by-district elections were the most common ways districts held elections in 2015. Some districts, however, used a combination of those methods in which some of the seats were elected at large and some were elected by district. In multi-member district elections, races were separated by district but multiple members were elected from each geographic region. In this analysis, the combination election method and the multi-member district election method are included together under the category "other election types."
Incumbents were re-elected overall at very similar rates across the different election methods in 2015. At least 80 percent of them retained their seat regardless of the election method used. Incumbents in by-district races were slightly more successful, with 85.32 percent of the incumbents winning additional terms, compared to 80.46 percent winning in at-large elections and 80.61 percent winning in other election types. Incumbents were also most likely to run for re-election in by-district races. A total of 75.43 percent of incumbents whose seats were on the ballot ran to retain them in by-district races, compared to 70.27 percent in at-large races and 54.75 percent in other election types.
Contested incumbents in at-large elections had the highest success rate with 74.70 percent winning re-election. A total of 65.22 percent of contested incumbents in by-district races won additional terms, and 66.67 percent won in other election types.
Incumbents were more likely to be unopposed in by-district races than when they ran in districts that used at-large or other election methods. A total of 57.80 percent of incumbents were unopposed in their bids to retain their seats in by-district races, compared to 22.76 percent in at-large races and 41.84 percent in other election types.
Incumbents were more likely to run as part of a candidate slate if they ran in at-large races. A total of 6.44 percent of incumbents ran with a slate in at-large elections, compared to none in by-district elections and 2.04 percent in other election types.
Details of incumbency success rates by election method can be found in the chart above and in the table below.
| Incumbency analysis by election method | |||||||
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| Election method | Districts holding elections | Seats on the ballot | Incumbents seeking re-election (%) | Unopposed incumbents (%) | Overall success rate | Contested success rate | Incumbents who ran with a slate (%) |
| By district | 202 | 579 | 75.43% | 57.80% | 85.32% | 65.22% | 0.00% |
| At large | 198 | 619 | 70.27% | 22.76% | 80.46% | 74.70% | 6.44% |
| Other | 40 | 179 | 54.75% | 41.84% | 80.61% | 66.67% | 2.04% |
Partisan and nonpartisan elections
Nonpartisan races were much more prevalent in the 2015 school board elections than races that allowed candidates to run with a political party designation. Incumbents were more likely to seek additional terms in nonpartisan races than in partisan races. A total of 71.37 percent of incumbents whose districts held nonpartisan races sought re-election, compared to 61.81 percent in races with political party distinctions.
Incumbents also had a higher overall success rate when running in nonpartisan races than when they ran in partisan races. A total of 83.07 percent of incumbents in nonpartisan races won re-election, compared to 78.65 percent in partisan races. When facing challengers, incumbents also fared better in nonpartisan races, with 71.07 percent defeating challengers to win another term, compared to 69.35 percent of incumbents winning against challengers in partisan races.
Nonpartisan races saw more unopposed incumbents than partisan races saw. A total of 41.48 percent of incumbents were unopposed in their bids for re-election in nonpartisan races, compared to the 30.34 percent of incumbents who ran unopposed in elections that allowed candidates to run with political party designations.
One variable seen more often in partisan races was the percentage of incumbents who ran with a candidate slate. A total of 13.48 percent of incumbents in partisan races ran as part of a slate, compared to 2.05 percent of incumbents in nonpartisan races.
| Incumbency analysis by partisan nature of election | |||||||
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| Election method | Districts holding elections | Seats on the ballot | Incumbents seeking re-election (%) | Unopposed incumbents (%) | Overall success rate | Contested success rate | Incumbents who ran with a slate (%) |
| Nonpartisan | 407 | 1,232 | 71.43% | 41.48% | 83.07% | 71.07% | 2.05% |
| Partisan | 32 | 144 | 61.81% | 30.34% | 78.65% | 69.35% | 13.48% |
Primary, general and runoff elections
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Ballotpedia tracked three different election types in the 2015 school board elections: primary elections, general elections and runoff elections. Primary elections are used in determining candidacy; they never determine the final winners in an election. General elections are the necessary polls required for an election cycle. They determine the final winners of a race unless a runoff election is held. Runoff elections are only held based on certain contingencies. They are used to determine the final winner when specific criteria are not met in a general election. In addition to analyzing incumbency success rates by these three election types, Ballotpedia separated the primary election category by nonpartisan, Democratic and Republican primaries. |
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Across the five election types, incumbents had the highest success rates in nonpartisan primaries. A total of 93.33 percent of incumbents won re-election in those races. The lowest success rate for incumbents occurred in runoff elections. Just 66.67 percent of incumbents retained their seats in those elections.
Runoff elections had the lowest average number of candidates out of the five election types. Because of the nature of runoff elections, only two candidates can run and only one can win. Democratic primaries saw the highest average number of candidates with 5.73 running in each race.
Contested success rates based on number of challengers
Incumbents saw higher rates of success in Democratic primaries, Republican primaries and general elections when a total of three candidates ran in a race. In nonpartisan primaries, however, incumbents had a lower success rate when three candidates ran in a race. The table below details contested incumbent success rates by the number of candidates in a race. Runoff elections were not included in this analysis as only two candidates ever participate in that election type. For incumbent success rates in runoff elections, see the "Primary, general and runoff elections" section above.
| Incumbent success rates based on number of candidates in race | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election type | Five or more candidates | Four candidates | Three candidates | Two candidates |
| Democratic primaries | 77.50% | N/A* | 100.00% | 66.67% |
| Republican primaries | 87.50% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 80.00% |
| Nonpartisan primaries | 100.00% | 100.00% | 90.00% | 100.00% |
| General elections | 72.87% | 77.11% | 81.82% | 76.78% |
| *Not applicable as no incumbents ran in a Democratic primary that featured four candidates. | ||||
Election returns
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Though incumbents won more seats in 2015 than newcomers did, they had varying rates of election returns by election type. Contested incumbents won by larger majorities in runoff elections than in any other election type. They received nearly 50 percent more votes than their challengers received. Incumbents won by the smallest majorities in Democratic primaries, receiving just 21.03 percent more votes than their competitors. In Republican primaries, incumbents received an average of 33.02 percent more votes than their challengers. Incumbents who were unopposed but still appeared on the ballot were not included in this analysis. The table to the right details the percentage by which contested incumbents won in each election type. |
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See also
| School Boards | News and Analysis |
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