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Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for August 1, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
August 1, 2017: In terms of building their party’s electoral strength throughout the nation, the three most successful presidents of the last 100 years were Franklin D. Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, and Ronald Reagan. Only one other president—Warren G. Harding—improved his party’s position, but he died of a heart attack before completing a single term.[1]
These findings come from an analysis of data created by Sean Trende and David Byler. Their index of partisan electoral strength “is the sum of five parts: presidential performance, House performance, Senate performance, gubernatorial performance and state legislative performance.” The scale theoretically can go from +250 when the Republicans control everything to -250 when the Democrats control everything. In the past 100 years, the GOP’s best year was a +79 in 1920. The Democrats did best in 1936 with an index score of -119.
To determine the performance of each president, I calculated gains or losses for each president by measuring the party’s strength before they were elected and comparing the results to when they left office. So, for example, President Obama’s performance was measured by comparing the strength of the Democratic Party when he left office to its strength when he began campaigning after the 2006 elections.
The results are summarized below (positive numbers indicate that the president’s party gained strength; negative numbers indicate the opposite). Not surprisingly, by this metric, Herbert Hoover had the worst performance of any president after presiding over the Depression:
| President | Party | Term | Party gains or losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin D. Roosevelt | D | 1933-1945 | 31.0 |
| Calvin Coolidge | R | 1923-1929 | 27.4 |
| Ronald Reagan | R | 1981-1989 | 20.0 |
| Warren G. Harding | R | 1921-1923 | 5.0 |
| John F. Kennedy | D | 1961-1963 | -11.6 |
| Gerald Ford | R | 1974-1976 | -14.1 |
| George H.W. Bush | R | 1989-1993 | -23.8 |
| Richard Nixon | R | 1969-1974 | -24.8 |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | D | 1963-1969 | -43.3 |
| Harry Truman | D | 1945-1953 | -44.3 |
| George W. Bush | R | 2001-2009 | -47.4 |
| Bill Clinton | D | 1993-2001 | -47.5 |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower | R | 1953-1961 | -48.6 |
| Jimmy Carter | D | 1977-1981 | -48.7 |
| Barack Obama | D | 2009-2017 | -50.7 |
| Woodrow Wilson | D | 1913-1921 | -81.8 |
| Herbert Hoover | R | 1929-1933 | -122.3 |
It is difficult to separate the impact of presidents who shared a term in office. One way to address this is to look at the combined results of, say, John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson. Combining those totals presents the following results:
| President | Party | Term | Party gains or losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warren G. Harding/Calvin Coolidge | R | 1921-1929 | 32.0 |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt | D | 1929-1945 | 31.0 |
| Ronald Reagan | R | 1981-1989 | 20.0 |
| George H.W. Bush | R | 1989-1993 | -24.0 |
| Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford | R | 1969-1977 | -39.0 |
| Harry Truman | D | 1945-1953 | -44.0 |
| George W. Bush | R | 2001-2009 | -47.4 |
| Bill Clinton | D | 1993-2001 | -47.5 |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower | R | 1953-1961 | -48.6 |
| Jimmy Carter | D | 1977-1981 | -48.7 |
| Barack Obama | D | 2009-2017 | -50.7 |
| John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson | D | 1961-1969 | -54.9 |
| Woodrow Wilson | D | 1913-1921 | -81.8 |
| Herbert Hoover | R | 1929-1933 | -122.3 |
While some have suggested that Barack Obama’s time in office was particularly bad for Democrats, it was actually a bit better than the eight years when John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson lived in the White House.
More broadly, it’s interesting to note that most of the two-term presidencies suffered roughly the same fate. Truman, Bush, Clinton, and Eisenhower all saw a decline between 44 and 49 points. The Nixon/Ford combo did a bit better, while Obama and the Kennedy/Johnson administration did a bit worse. But all were in the same general range. That’s what makes the positive results of the Roosevelt, Coolidge, and Reagan presidencies stand out so distinctly.
Following the 2016 elections, Trende and Byler found that the Republican Party is now in the strongest position it has been since Coolidge left office in 1928.
Additional information on this topic will be provided in the near future.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- July 31, 2017 – 15% increase in top hospitals' revenue during first two years of Obamacare
- July 28, 2017 – 66 of the nation’s 100 largest cities allow homesharing with minimal regulation
- July 27, 2017 – 15 million Americans would opt out of Obamacare coverage if they could
- July 26, 2017 – 15.3% of U.S. workforce on the government payroll
- July 25, 2017 – 57 years ago today Greensboro lunch counter de-segregated
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
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