Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for June 20, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
June 20, 2017: It’s Election Day in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District, the final day of the most expensive campaign ever for a U.S. House seat. The candidates and outside groups have spent more than $50 million on a race that the polls suggest is too close to call.[1] That staggering total is four times as much as the most expensive House race in 2016. In fact, it’s more than the combined total of 2016’s four most expensive House races.
2018 →
← 2016
|
 |
Campaign ads • Timeline |
| Special Election: April 18, 2017 Runoff Election: June 20, 2017 Election Winner: Karen Handel  Incumbent: Tom Price (R) |
| Cook Political Report: Toss-up[3] Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up[4] Rothenberg & Gonzales: Pure Toss-up[5] |
The spending has been so intense that one local TV station had to add an extra newscast to accommodate all the campaign advertising.[6]
Generally speaking, special elections bring lower turnout than general elections. But, advertising works. Higher levels of campaign spending generally lead to higher levels of voter turnout. In this race, it has already led to a surge of early voting, and most analysts expect the final turnout to be even higher than in a typical general election.[1]
Pundits and analysts typically exaggerate the importance of special elections. Whichever team wins the race will proclaim the win as proof that their side is on track for victory in 2018. However, the unique factors surrounding special elections make them less predictive than the victors will claim. For one thing, when there are 435 House seats up for election next year, no one race will attract $50 million in campaign spending.
Prior to this election, the most expensive race ever was a 2012 election in Florida’s 18th Congressional District. That race cost $29.6 million.[7]
| 2016 U.S. House districts with 10 highest-spending general election candidates vs. 2017 GA-6 runoff candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 District | Total spending | 2017 Georgia District 6 | |
| Florida District 18 | $13,706,697 | $25,691,457 | |
| Wisconsin District 1 | $13,410,703 | ||
| Illinois District 10 | $10,503,884 | ||
| Arizona District 2 | $9,402,312 | ||
| New Jersey District 5 | $9,006,502 | ||
| Montana At-Large | $8,587,609 | ||
| California District 49 | $8,316,845 | ||
| Virginia District 10 | $8,112,264 | ||
| California District 23 | $8,107,679 | ||
| New York District 1 | $7,922,937 | ||
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- June 19, 2017 52 percent of conservatives expect economy to improve; 14 percent of liberals agree
- June 16, 2017 6 billion dollars worth of legal marijuana sales in 2016, $25 billion of illegal sales
- June 15, 2017 17.6 billion dollars of person-to-person payments handled by Venmo in 2016
- June 14, 2017 17 percent of voters not happy Trump is president—but happy Clinton isn't
- June 13, 2017 3.6 million tweets about Comey hearings
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
The Number of the Day is broadcast on local stations across the country. An archive of these broadcasts can be found here.
Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
Ballotpedia is the nonprofit, nonpartisan Encyclopedia of American Politics.
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Politico, "Ossoff, Handel battle for Georgia special election win," June 18, 2017
- ↑ Race ratings from outside sources are their initial ratings for the 2018 election.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2018 House Race Ratings for April 10, 2017," accessed April 11, 2017
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Initial 2018 House Ratings," accessed April 11, 2017
- ↑ Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "House Ratings," accessed April 11, 2017
- ↑ The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Big spending in the 6th District race is literally creating news shows," May 7, 2017
- ↑ Open Secrets, "Most Expensive Races," accessed June 19, 2017
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
