Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for March 20, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
March 20, 2017: A total of 206 counties across the nation voted for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but voted for Donald Trump in 2016. These Pivot Counties had an outsized impact on the election results. Despite casting only 5 percent of the national vote total in 2016, they accounted for 51 percent of the popular vote shift toward Republicans.
Because of their unique status and significant impact, these Pivot Counties are a good place to study the changing political landscape. From now until Election 2018, Ballotpedia will regularly release new data on these counties and explore what they can teach us about national trends.
Of the 206 Pivot Counties, nearly half (100) were Democratic counties during the Bush years. They voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry. Fifty-eight (58) of the Pivot Counties are true swing counties, going with the winner in the last five presidential elections. The remaining 48 voted once for George W. Bush and once for his opponent.
The Pivot Counties mirrored national trends between 2008 and 2012. However, between 2012 and 2016, they swung much more dramatically than the nation at large.
Nationally, President Obama won the popular vote by 6 percentage points in 2008 (52 to 46 percent) and by 4 percentage points in 2012 (51 to 47 percent). Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by only 2 percentage points in 2016 (48 to 46 percent).
President Obama won these 206 Pivot Counties by 10 points, with a margin of 54 to 44 percent. In 2012, he won them by a slightly smaller margin of 53 to 46 percent. But these 206 counties produced an entirely different result in 2016. Donald Trump carried them by 8 points, 51 to 43 percent. That reflects a net swing of 15 percentage points (from D+7 in 2012 to R+8 in 2016).
| Pivot Counties Results | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 |
| Democratic | 54% | 53% | 43% |
| Republican | 44% | 46% | 51% |
| NET | D+10 | D+7 | R+8 |
Another way of recognizing the impact of the Pivot Counties is to look at the raw vote totals. Nationally, Obama won the popular vote by approximately 5.0 million votes. Clinton won by 2.9 million. Nationally, therefore, the net popular vote shifted 2.1 million votes.
Looking at the Pivot Counties, Obama won them by 762,505 and 504,849 votes during his electoral victories. In 2016, Trump won these counties by 581,752 votes. Between 2012 and 2016, that reflects a net shift in the Republican direction of 1,086,601 votes. In other words, 51 percent of the Republican gains nationwide came from the Pivot Counties. That’s an astounding figure considering that these counties cast only 5 percent of all votes nationwide.
Not surprisingly, just over half of the Pivot Counties are found in the Midwest. That includes 31 counties in Iowa, 22 in Wisconsin, 19 in Minnesota, 12 in Michigan, 12 in Illinois, nine in Ohio, and five in Indiana.
Pivot Counties are also found in New York (19), Maine (8), Virginia (7), North Carolina (6), Georgia (5), South Carolina (5), South Dakota (5), Washington (5), Florida (4), North Dakota (4), Colorado (3), Montana (3), New Mexico (3), Pennsylvania (3), Mississippi (3), New Hampshire (3), New Jersey (2), Oregon (2), and nine states with a single Pivot County (Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, and Vermont).
Forty-seven percent (47%) of Maine voters live in a Pivot County. So do 36 percent of New Hampshire voters and 26 percent of Iowa voters. In New York, Michigan, Delaware, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Minnesota, the share of Pivot County residents ranges from 10 to 19 percent.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
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Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
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See also
- Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day
- Pliny's Point
- 115th United States Congress
- Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016
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