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Selzer & Company
| Selzer & Company | |
| Basic facts | |
| Location: | Des Moines, Iowa |
| Type: | Polling firm |
| Founder(s): | J. Ann Selzer |
| Year founded: | 1992 |
Selzer & Company was a polling firm that conducted polls on political races in the state of Iowa. In 2016, NPR called the company's founder, J. Ann Selzer, "the most respected pollster in Iowa," while FiveThirtyEight described her as "the best pollster in politics."[1][2] Selzer conducted polls for The Des Moines Register from 1987 to 2025. In November 2024, following the 2024 presidential election, Selzer announced that she would no longer conduct election polling.[3]
Background
After working as the internal pollster for the Register in 1987, Selzer founded her own company in 1992 and began conducting polls for the paper through her firm. Selzer and one other employee worked in Des Moines doing the company's polling. In 2016, she described the company's atmosphere to FiveThirtyEight, saying, "Part of our culture in this office is we have the phrase, 'I just want to say this out loud.' It’s a culture of overcommunication, and some day I will write a book called 'Just Say It Out Loud.'"[2]
Methodology
Selzer & Company conducted its polls using live interviewers calling both landline and mobile phones. For polling in the Iowa caucuses, Selzer used a list of all registered voters in the state and then allowed the interviewees to say if they intended to go to the caucus. In a 2016 interview with Politico, Selzer explained her approach and its success, saying, "I think it has to do with being more of a traditionalist, science-based pollster. And because it has worked for me, I’ve not been tempted to go and try other methods. And because I have clients who are willing to pay the premium that it takes to do it this way, I’ve not had to cut corners."[4]
After collecting polling data, the company weighted the answers to be representative of the population but not to include information about respondents' past caucus or voting activity.[2]
Polling activity
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2024 elections
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Selzer published a poll showing Kamala Harris (D) at 47% and Donald Trump (R) at 44% in Iowa. The final results in the state saw Trump receive 55% of the vote to Harris' 43%.[5]
2020 elections
Selzer conducted a national presidential poll following the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions in August 2020 that found former Vice President Joe Biden (D) leading President Donald Trump (R) by eight points, 49% to 41%. In Iowa, Selzer found Biden and Trump tied at 47% each in September 2020.[6]
The Wall Street Journal described Selzer as "the pollster who figured out Iowa's quirky caucuses" in January 2020.[7] Selzer's final Iowa poll on the eve of the state caucus was pulled on February 1, 2020, after the Buttigieg campaign raised concerns about the integrity of the survey.[8]
According to an analysis of 48 polls, FiveThirtyEight gave Selzer an overall grade of A+ on May 19, 2020.[9] It was one of only six polls to receive that rating.
2016 elections
In the 2016 Iowa caucuses, Selzer & Company projected Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic caucuses by three points and Donald Trump to beat Ted Cruz in the Republican caucuses by five points.[10] Selzer noted, "The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race."[11]
2014 elections
During the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Iowa, Selzer's poll predicted that Joni Ernst (R) would win by seven points over Democrat Bruce Braley.[12] After Ernst won by 8.5 points, FiveThirtyEight noted, "Most polls correctly identified Ernst as the winner, but Selzer’s poll was the only one in the final days to come close to her margin of victory."[13]
2012 elections
During the 2012 Iowa caucuses, the final poll done by Selzer & Company predicted Rick Santorum's (R) rise in the Republican caucus. The poll projected Mitt Romney (R) to win, but showed Santorum gaining in the final days.[14]
2008 elections
In 2008, Selzer & Company predicted that Barack Obama would win the Democratic caucuses based on a large turnout of first-time caucusgoers. Asked about her projection that 60 percent of voters on the Democratic side would be first-time voters, Selzer said, "I assumed nothing. That’s what my data told me. We put our method in place, and we let the voters speak to us."[2]
On the Republican side, Selzer & Company correctly projected Mike Huckabee's win.[15]
Recent news
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See also
Footnotes
- ↑ NPR, "Don't Overlook Third Place In Iowa. Jeb Bush And Marco Rubio Sure Aren't," January 7, 2017
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 FiveThirtyEight, "Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics," January 27, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Ann Selzer leaving election polling after Iowa whiff," November 17, 2024
- ↑ Politico, "Ann Selzer's secret sauce," December 12, 2015
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "The 2024 Iowa Poll for President: A Cautionary Tale," December 12, 2024
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Latest Polls," accessed September 24, 2020
- ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "The Pollster Who Figured Out Iowa’s Quirky Caucuses," January 3, 2020
- ↑ NBC News, "Des Moines Register pulls gold-standard Iowa Poll after Buttigieg may have been left off," February 1, 2020
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings," May 19, 2020
- ↑ The New York Times, "Why This Is the Iowa Poll That Everyone Was Waiting For," January 30, 2016
- ↑ Des Moines Register, "Donald Trump reclaims lead in latest Iowa Poll," January 30, 2016
- ↑ Des Moines Register, "Iowa Poll: Ernst takes 7-point lead," November 1, 2014
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale," November 14, 2014
- ↑ Des Moines Register, "Romney leads Paul in new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll; Santorum surges," December 31, 2011
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "The Best Pollster In Iowa Just Released Its Final Survey — How Accurate Has It Been?" January 30, 2016
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