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South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 30, 2020
Primary: June 9, 2020
Primary runoff: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Jeff Duncan (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in South Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th
South Carolina elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of South Carolina, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Jeff Duncan won election in the general election for U.S. House South Carolina District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 30, 2020
June 9, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Jeff Duncan, who was first elected in 2010.

South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District is located in the western portion of the state. The district is made up of all of Abbeville, Anderson, Edgefield, Greenwood, Laurens, McCormick, Oconee, Pickens, and Saluda counties and portions of Greenville and Newberry counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 30.5 28.7
Republican candidate Republican Party 68.1 71.2
Difference 37.6 42.5

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

South Carolina modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Any eligible voter could request an absentee ballot for the general election. Return postage for all mailed absentee ballots was prepaid.
  • In-person voting: In-person absentee voting was authorized to begin on October 5, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House South Carolina District 3

Incumbent Jeff Duncan defeated Hosea Cleveland in the general election for U.S. House South Carolina District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jeff Duncan
Jeff Duncan (R)
 
71.2
 
237,544
Image of Hosea Cleveland
Hosea Cleveland (D)
 
28.7
 
95,712
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
308

Total votes: 333,564
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 3

Hosea Cleveland defeated Mark Welch in the Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 3 on June 9, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Hosea Cleveland
Hosea Cleveland
 
57.3
 
11,769
Image of Mark Welch
Mark Welch
 
42.7
 
8,753

Total votes: 20,522
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Jeff Duncan advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 3.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 46 South Carolina counties—10.9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Barnwell County, South Carolina 5.16% 5.33% 1.65%
Calhoun County, South Carolina 2.83% 4.31% 3.55%
Chester County, South Carolina 4.83% 10.58% 8.30%
Colleton County, South Carolina 8.49% 0.19% 0.53%
McCormick County, South Carolina 3.32% 3.60% 6.08%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won South Carolina with 54.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 40.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, South Carolina cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 53.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, South Carolina supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. South Carolina favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in South Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 38 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 85 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 86 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 30.1 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+19, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District the 41st most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jeff Duncan Republican Party $1,527,352 $1,289,578 $482,411 As of December 31, 2020
Hosea Cleveland Democratic Party $43,214 $45,107 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in South Carolina in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in South Carolina, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
South Carolina 3rd Congressional District Major party N/A N/A $3,480.00 1% of annual salary multipled by term of office 3/30/2020 Source
South Carolina 3rd Congressional District Unaffiliated Pending 5% of active registered voters in district as of 120 days before the election N/A N/A 8/17/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House South Carolina District 3

Incumbent Jeff Duncan defeated Mary Geren and Dave Moore in the general election for U.S. House South Carolina District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jeff Duncan
Jeff Duncan (R)
 
67.8
 
153,338
Image of Mary Geren
Mary Geren (D)
 
31.0
 
70,046
Image of Dave Moore
Dave Moore (American Party)
 
1.2
 
2,697
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
123

Total votes: 226,204
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 3

Mary Geren defeated Hosea Cleveland in the Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 3 on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mary Geren
Mary Geren
 
69.7
 
12,971
Image of Hosea Cleveland
Hosea Cleveland
 
30.3
 
5,630

Total votes: 18,601
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 3

Incumbent Jeff Duncan advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 3 on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
Image of Jeff Duncan
Jeff Duncan

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Jeff Duncan (R) defeated Hosea Cleveland (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent.[12]

U.S. House, South Carolina District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Duncan Incumbent 72.8% 196,325
     Democratic Hosea Cleveland 27.1% 72,933
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 282
Total Votes 269,540
Source: South Carolina Secretary of State

2014

See also: South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent Jeff Duncan won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Barbara Jo Mullis in the general election.

U.S. House, South Carolina District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Duncan Incumbent 71.2% 116,741
     Democratic Barbara Jo Mullis 28.8% 47,181
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 87
Total Votes 164,009
Source: South Carolina State Election Commission

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (1)