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South Carolina's 4th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

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South Carolina's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 30, 2018
Primary: June 12, 2018
Primary runoff: June 26, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Trey Gowdy (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in South Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+15
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
South Carolina's 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th
South Carolina elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Click here for Ballotpedia's coverage of the June 26 runoff election.

Thirteen Republican candidates were seeking the party's nomination for the seat of outgoing Rep. Trey Gowdy (R). A Republican has represented the Greenville-based district since 1990 and it was rated Solid/Safe Republican, meaning the winner of the primary was considered likely to win the general election. No candidate received a majority of the vote in the June 12 primary. The top two finishers were former state Sen. Lee Bright (R) and state Sen. William Timmons (R), who advanced to a June 26 runoff in which Timmons defeated Bright.

All thirteen candidates expressed support for the president's policy agenda but have differing campaign strategies.[1]

Former state Sen. Lee Bright was running a Trump-style campaign. Reps. Steve King (R-IA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) endorsed Bright.[2]

State Sen. William Timmons (R) raised the most money. He emphasized his personal and commercial ties to Greenville.[3] Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) endorsed his candidacy.[4]

Radio host Josh Kimbrell (R) emphasized his business experience and his role as both a radio personality and Fox News contributor. He was backed by the Club for Growth.[5]

State Rep. Dan Hamilton (R) touted his private sector and legislative experience. The National Association of Realtors has spent nearly $400,000 supporting his candidacy.[6]




South Carolina voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 12, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMarch 30, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 11, 2018
Absentee application deadlineJune 8, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:



Candidates and election results

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 4 on June 12, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lee Bright
Lee Bright
 
25.0
 
16,742
✔
Image of William Timmons
William Timmons
 
19.2
 
12,885
Image of Dan Hamilton
Dan Hamilton
 
18.6
 
12,494
Image of Josh Kimbrell
Josh Kimbrell
 
11.1
 
7,465
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
James Epley
 
8.0
 
5,386
Image of Stephen Brown
Stephen Brown
 
7.6
 
5,078
Image of Shannon Pierce
Shannon Pierce
 
3.6
 
2,442
Image of Mark Burns
Mark Burns
 
2.5
 
1,662
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Claude Schmid
 
2.1
 
1,415
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Dan Albert
 
0.8
 
510
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
John Marshall Mosser
 
0.7
 
457
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Justin David Sanders
 
0.5
 
354
Image of Barry Bell
Barry Bell
 
0.3
 
200

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 67,090
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Endorsements

Satellite spending

National Association of Realtors

See also: National Association of Realtors PAC

The National Association of Realtors is a real estate trade association that "strives to be the collective force influencing and shaping the real estate industry."[8] As of June 6, 2018, the organization's congressional fund spent $394,806 in support of the candidacy of Dan Hamilton (R), funding consulting and polling services as well as a direct mail campaign.[9]

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly April 2018 reports, indicating candidates' cumulative raising and spending between the beginning of the campaign cycle on January 1, 2017, and the end of the reporting period on March 31, 2018. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of March 31, 2018.[10]

Campaign tactics and strategies

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Dan Hamilton

Oppose
"In Their Own Words" - Club for Growth ad, released June 5, 2018


Republican Party William Timmons

Support
"Work" - Timmons campaign ad, released June 4, 2018
"Case is Clear" - Timmons campaign ad, released May 30, 2018
"Fighting for Our Conservative Principles" - Timmons campaign ad, released May 16, 2018
"Conservative Reformer" - Timmons campaign ad, released May 16, 2018
"Conservative Principles" - Timmons campaign ad, released April 20, 2018
Oppose
"In Their Own Words" - Club for Growth ad, released June 5, 2018


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: South Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Republican Safe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made South Carolina's 4th Congressional District the 83rd most Republican nationally.[11]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[12]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 46 South Carolina counties—10.9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Barnwell County, South Carolina 5.16% 5.33% 1.65%
Calhoun County, South Carolina 2.83% 4.31% 3.55%
Chester County, South Carolina 4.83% 10.58% 8.30%
Colleton County, South Carolina 8.49% 0.19% 0.53%
McCormick County, South Carolina 3.32% 3.60% 6.08%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won South Carolina with 54.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 40.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, South Carolina cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 53.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, South Carolina supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. South Carolina favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in South Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[13][14]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 38 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 85 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 86 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 30.1 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in South Carolina heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the South Carolina State Legislature. They had a 80-44 majority in the state House and a 27-19 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: South Carolina elections, 2018

South Carolina held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for South Carolina
 South CarolinaU.S.
Total population:4,894,834316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):30,0613,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:67.2%73.6%
Black/African American:27.5%12.6%
Asian:1.4%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:25.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,483$53,889
Persons below poverty level:22%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in South Carolina.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, South Carolina's three largest cities were Charleston (pop. est. 135,000), Columbia (pop. est. 133,000), and North Charleston (pop. est. 111,000).[15]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in South Carolina from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the South Carolina Election Commission.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in South Carolina every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), South Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 54.9% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 40.7% 14.2%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 54.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.1% 10.5%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.9% 9.0%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 58.0% Democratic Party John Kerry 40.9% 17.1%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party Al Gore 40.9% 15.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in South Carolina from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), South Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Tim Scott 60.6% Democratic Party Thomas Dixon 36.9% 23.7%
2014[16] Republican Party Tim Scott 61.1% Democratic Party Joyce Dickerson 37.1% 24.0%
2014 Republican Party Lindsey Graham 54.3% Democratic Party Brad Hutto 38.8% 15.5%
2010 Republican Party Jim DeMint 61.5% Democratic Party Alvin Greene 27.7% 33.8%
2008 Republican Party Lindsey Graham 57.5% Democratic Party Bob Conley 42.3% 15.2%
2004 Republican Party Jim DeMint 53.7% Democratic Party Inez Tenenbaum 44.1% 9.6%
2002 Republican Party Lindsey Graham 54.4% Democratic Party Alex Sanders 44.2% 10.2%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in South Carolina.

Election results (Governor), South Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Nikki Haley 55.9% Democratic Party Vincent Sheheen 41.4% 14.5%
2010 Republican Party Nikki Haley 51.4% Democratic Party Vincent Sheheen 46.9% 4.5%
2006 Republican Party Mark Sanford 55.1% Democratic Party Kerry Healey 44.8% 10.3%
2002 Republican Party Mark Sanford 52.8% Democratic Party Jim Hodges 47.0% 5.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent South Carolina in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, South Carolina 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 6 85.7% Democratic Party 1 14.3% R+5
2014 Republican Party 6 85.7% Democratic Party 1 14.3% R+5
2012 Republican Party 6 85.7% Democratic Party 1 14.3% R+5
2010 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4
2008 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2006 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2004 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2002 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2000 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

South Carolina Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ The Post and Courier, "In crowded GOP primary to replace Trey Gowdy, conservatives vie for Trump voters," May 5, 2018
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 FITSNews, "#SC4: Lee Bright Racking Up Endorsements," May 10, 2018
  3. ↑ Vote Timmons, "Home," accessed May 31, 2018
  4. ↑ Greenville News, "U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio endorses state Sen. William Timmons in 4th District race," May 8, 2018
  5. ↑ Club for Growth, "CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC ENDORSES JOSH KIMBRELL FOR CONGRESS," June 5, 2018
  6. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures - National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund," accessed June 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Greenville Online, "U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio endorses state Sen. William Timmons in 4th District race," May 8, 2018
  8. ↑ National Association of Realtors, "About NAR," accessed May 30, 2018
  9. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures - National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund," accessed June 6, 2018
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "South Carolina - House District 4," accessed May 3, 2018
  11. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  12. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  13. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  15. ↑ South Carolina Demographics, "South Carolina Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  16. ↑ Special election


South Carolina's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Lindsey Graham (R)
Tim Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (1)


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