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South Carolina's 4th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Republican primary runoff)

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South Carolina's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 30, 2018
Primary: June 12, 2018
Primary runoff: June 26, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Trey Gowdy (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in South Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+15
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
South Carolina's 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th
South Carolina elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


This page covers the June 26 runoff election. Click here for Ballotpedia's coverage of the June 12 primary election.

State Sen. William Timmons (R) defeated former state Sen. Lee Bright (R) in the Republican primary runoff for South Carolina's 4th congressional district, receiving 54.3 percent of the vote to Bright's 45.7 percent.[1] Timmons and Bright were the top two finishers in the June 12th Republican primary for the U.S. House seat representing South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, which was vacated by outgoing Rep. Trey Gowdy (R). Because no candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote, Bright and Timmons advanced to a June 26 runoff.

Bright, who was running a Trump-style campaign, was endorsed by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Steve King (R-Iowa) ahead of the June 12 primary. He since gained endorsements from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.) and the Club for Growth PAC.

Timmons highlighted his personal and commercial ties to the Greenville area in his run.[2] He was backed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in the June 12 primary. Timmons led the 13-candidate primary field in fundraising and has received support from the Conservative Leadership Alliance.



South Carolina voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 12, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMarch 30, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 11, 2018
Absentee application deadlineJune 8, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:



Election results

Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House South Carolina District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of William Timmons
William Timmons
 
54.3
 
37,096
Image of Lee Bright
Lee Bright
 
45.7
 
31,236

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 68,332
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018



Republican Party Republican primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Republican Party factional conflict

See also: Republican Party factional conflict in U.S. House primaries, 2018

Disputes between potential members of the House Freedom Caucus and other members of the Republican Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.

In 2015, conservative Republicans formed the Freedom Caucus and began opposing House Republican leaders on fiscal policy, chamber procedures, and caucus leadership, among other things.[3] Members of the Freedom Caucus broke away from the Republican Study Committee, which, along with the Republican Main Street Partnership, was more closely aligned with House Republican leaders.[4]

In this primary, Lee Bright affiliated with the Freedom Caucus.[5][6]

The chart below shows a scorecard for how the Freedom Caucus performed in competitive Republican primaries that featured at least one Freedom Caucus candidate and one Republican opponent not affiliated with the group.

U.S. House Republican factions
Faction Primary victories in 2018 Seats held prior to primaries Performance
Affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus 8 6 +2
Not affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus[7] 10 12 -2

Endorsements

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly April 2018 reports, indicating candidates' cumulative raising and spending between the beginning of the campaign cycle on January 1, 2017, and the end of the reporting period on March 31, 2018. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of March 31, 2018.[12]

Satellite spending

Conservative Leadership Alliance

The Conservative Leadership Alliance is a 501(c)(4) organization which describes its purpose as "to put conservative policies into action. That includes advocating for reforms that grow the economy, lower our national debt, fix a broken healthcare system, and make our country safer and stronger through a bold national defense."[13] The group allocated $200,000 following the June 12 primary to run ads in opposition to the campaign of Lee Bright (R).[14]

Club for Growth PAC

See also: Club for Growth PAC

The Club for Growth PAC is a political action committee (PAC) that "endorses and raises money for candidates who stay true to the fundamental principles of limited government and economic freedom."[15] The PAC is one of the political arms of the Club for Growth (CFG). The group, according to the PAC, focuses on House and Senate races.[16] The organization spent $230,000 on a digital and television ad campaign opposed to the candidacy of William Timmons (R).[17]

Campaign tactics and strategies

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Lee Bright

Support
"Revolution" - Bright campaign ad, released June 15, 2018


Republican Party William Timmons

Support
"It's Time" - Timmons campaign ad, released June 18, 2018
"Work" - Timmons campaign ad, released June 4, 2018
"Case is Clear" - Timmons campaign ad, released May 30, 2018
"Fighting for Our Conservative Principles" - Timmons campaign ad, released May 16, 2018
"Conservative Reformer" - Timmons campaign ad, released May 16, 2018
"Conservative Principles" - Timmons campaign ad, released April 20, 2018
Oppose
"I Don't Care" - Club for Growth ad, released June 20, 2018
"I'm In" - Club for Growth ad, released June 20, 2018
"In Their Own Words" - Club for Growth ad, released June 5, 2018


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: South Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Republican Safe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made South Carolina's 4th Congressional District the 83rd most Republican nationally.[18]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[19]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 46 South Carolina counties—10.9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Barnwell County, South Carolina 5.16% 5.33% 1.65%
Calhoun County, South Carolina 2.83% 4.31% 3.55%
Chester County, South Carolina 4.83% 10.58% 8.30%
Colleton County, South Carolina 8.49% 0.19% 0.53%
McCormick County, South Carolina 3.32% 3.60% 6.08%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won South Carolina with 54.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 40.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, South Carolina cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 53.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, South Carolina supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. South Carolina favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in South Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[20][21]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 38 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 85 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 86 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 30.1 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in South Carolina heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the South Carolina State Legislature. They had a 80-44 majority in the state House and a 27-19 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: South Carolina elections, 2018

South Carolina held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for South Carolina
 South CarolinaU.S.
Total population:4,894,834316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):30,0613,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:67.2%73.6%
Black/African American:27.5%12.6%
Asian:1.4%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:25.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,483$53,889
Persons below poverty level:22%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in South Carolina.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, South Carolina's three largest cities were Charleston (pop. est. 135,000), Columbia (pop. est. 133,000), and North Charleston (pop. est. 111,000).[22]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in South Carolina from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the South Carolina Election Commission.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in South Carolina every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), South Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 54.9% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 40.7% 14.2%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 54.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.1% 10.5%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.9% 9.0%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 58.0% Democratic Party John Kerry 40.9% 17.1%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party Al Gore 40.9% 15.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in South Carolina from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), South Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Tim Scott 60.6% Democratic Party Thomas Dixon 36.9% 23.7%
2014[23] Republican Party Tim Scott 61.1% Democratic Party Joyce Dickerson 37.1% 24.0%
2014 Republican Party Lindsey Graham 54.3% Democratic Party Brad Hutto 38.8% 15.5%
2010 Republican Party Jim DeMint 61.5% Democratic Party Alvin Greene 27.7% 33.8%
2008 Republican Party Lindsey Graham 57.5% Democratic Party Bob Conley 42.3% 15.2%
2004 Republican Party Jim DeMint 53.7% Democratic Party Inez Tenenbaum 44.1% 9.6%
2002 Republican Party Lindsey Graham 54.4% Democratic Party Alex Sanders 44.2% 10.2%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in South Carolina.

Election results (Governor), South Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Nikki Haley 55.9% Democratic Party Vincent Sheheen 41.4% 14.5%
2010 Republican Party Nikki Haley 51.4% Democratic Party Vincent Sheheen 46.9% 4.5%
2006 Republican Party Mark Sanford 55.1% Democratic Party Kerry Healey 44.8% 10.3%
2002 Republican Party Mark Sanford 52.8% Democratic Party Jim Hodges 47.0% 5.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent South Carolina in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, South Carolina 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 6 85.7% Democratic Party 1 14.3% R+5
2014 Republican Party 6 85.7% Democratic Party 1 14.3% R+5
2012 Republican Party 6 85.7% Democratic Party 1 14.3% R+5
2010 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4
2008 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2006 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2004 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2002 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2000 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

South Carolina Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ The New York Times, "South Carolina Primary Runoff Election Results," June 27, 2018
  2. ↑ Vote Timmons, "Home," accessed May 31, 2018
  3. ↑ Pew Research Center, "What is the House Freedom Caucus, and who’s in it?" October 20, 2015
  4. ↑ Politico, "Conservatives split off from Republican Study Committee," January 13, 2015
  5. ↑ House Freedom Fund, "Endorsements," accessed May 15, 2018
  6. ↑ Some candidates were not formally endorsed by the caucus but said they would join if elected. See a list of all Freedom Caucus-affiliated candidates here.
  7. ↑ This includes all seats not held by members of the Freedom Caucus prior to the 2018 elections, including those held by Democrats.
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 FITSNews, "#SC4: Lee Bright Racking Up Endorsements," May 10, 2018
  9. ↑ Greenville Online, "U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz endorses Lee Bright's bid for S.C. 4th Congressional District seat," June 19, 2018
  10. ↑ The Club for Growth, "CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC ENDORSES LEE BRIGHT FOR CONGRESS," June 20, 2018
  11. ↑ Greenville Online, "U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio endorses state Sen. William Timmons in 4th District race," May 8, 2018
  12. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "South Carolina - House District 4," accessed May 3, 2018
  13. ↑ Conservative Leadership Fund, "Home," accessed June 19, 2018
  14. ↑ FITSNews, "Dark Money Group Dropping $200K Against Lee Bright," June 19, 2018
  15. ↑ Club for Growth, "Club for Growth PAC," accessed March 24, 2016
  16. ↑ Politico, "Can the Club for Growth Survive Donald Trump?" October 1, 2016
  17. ↑ The Club for Growth, "CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION RELEASES ADS IN SC-04 EXPOSING WILLIAM TIMMONS’ SUPPORT FOR A GAS TAX INCREASE," June 20, 2018
  18. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  19. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  20. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  21. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  22. ↑ South Carolina Demographics, "South Carolina Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  23. ↑ Special election


South Carolina's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Lindsey Graham (R)
Tim Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (1)


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