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State Ballot Measure Monthly: January 2019
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By Ballot Measures Project staff
This first 2019 edition of the State Ballot Measure Monthly covers all six of the 2019 and 2020 statewide ballot measure certifications so far.
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Number of certifications in past years
Odd-numbered years:
- 2017: By the third Tuesday of January, four measures had been certified for the 2017 ballot.
- Ultimately, 27 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2017.
- 2015: By the third Tuesday of January, four measures had been certified for the 2015 ballot.
- Ultimately, 28 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2015.
- 2013: By the third Tuesday of January, zero measures had been certified for the 2013 ballot.
- Ultimately, 31 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2013.
- 2011: By the third Tuesday of January, four measures had been certified for the 2011 ballot.
- Ultimately, 34 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2011.
Even-numbered years:
- The average number of measures certified for the next even-year election cycle by this point from 2011 through 2017 was between four and five.
- The average total number of statewide measures ultimately certified for even-numbered years from 2012 through 2018 was 169.
2019 certifications
Through January 15, 2019, the following measures were certified for 2019 election ballots on the dates listed. This list includes all certifications that have happened for the 2019 election cycle so far.
November 6, 2018:
- Colorado Transportation Bond Issue (2021) - This measure would authorize $2.337 billion in bonds to fund statewide transportation projects. It was referred to the 2019 election ballot in Colorado by a bill passed by the state legislature in 2018. The bill—Senate Bill 1—was designed with multiple provisions contingent on the outcome of two citizen-initiated transportation bond proposals on the ballot for the election on November 6, 2018. One 2018 initiative, Proposition 109, would have authorized $3.5 billion in bonds without a tax increase. The other, Proposition 110, would have authorized $6 billion in bonds and a 20-year sales tax increase. Since both initiatives were defeated, Senate Bill 1 automatically put this 2019 bond issue on the ballot.
2020 certifications
Through January 15, 2019, the following measures were certified for 2020 election ballots on the dates listed. This list includes all certifications that have happened for the 2020 election cycle so far.
Pre-certified:
- Iowa Constitutional Convention Question (2020) - This measure asks voters, "Shall there be a convention to revise the constitution, and propose amendment or amendments to same?" The question appears on the Iowa ballot automatically every 10 years as per the state constitution. If it is approved, the Iowa State Legislature must, at its next session, provide for the election of convention delegates and the submission of constitutional changes approved by the convention to the voters. From 1970 to 2010, each decennial constitutional convention question in Iowa was rejected. On average, voters rejected the measures by 64 percent to 36 percent.
July 9, 2018:
- California Proposition 20, Criminal Sentencing, Parole, and DNA Collection Initiative (2020) - This measure would add crimes to the list of violent felonies for which early parole is restricted, recategorize certain types of theft and fraud crimes as wobblers (chargeable as misdemeanors or felonies), and require DNA collection for certain misdemeanors. Proponents of this initiated state statute needed to submit 365,880 valid signatures by July 3, 2018. On July 9, 2018, Secretary of State Alex Padilla reported that more than enough signatures had been submitted for the measure to make the ballot in 2020. Proponents can withdraw the initiative until 131 days before the election.[1]
- Sponsors of the measure hired Arno Petition Consultants to collect signatures for the petition to qualify this measure for the ballot. A total of $2,046,104.99 was spent to collect the 365,880 valid signatures required to put this measure before voters, resulting in a total cost per required signature (CPRS) of $5.59.
October 15, 2018:
- California Proposition 15, Tax on Commercial and Industrial Properties for Education and Local Government Funding Initiative (2020) - This measure would require commercial and industrial properties, except those zoned as commercial agriculture, to be taxed based on their market value rather than their purchase price. Sponsors filed the ballot initiative with the intent to get the initiative on the ballot for the election on November 6, 2018. On April 6, 2018, however, sponsors announced that the initiative would be delayed until 2020. Melissa Breach, executive director of the League of Women Voters of California, said, "In moving it we have the benefit to spend a little less because the cost to qualify will be significantly less. And then the benefit is we get this additional two years to do the work with the voters."[2] On August 14, the campaign backing the ballot initiative filed 855,623 signatures, and on October 15, 2018, counties verified a random sample of signatures, projecting that 661,306 signatures (77.29 percent) were valid, enough to qualify the measure for the ballot. A total of 585,407 signatures were needed.
- Proponents are allowed to withdraw the initiative until 131 days before the election. Sponsors of the measure hired Kimball Petition Management Inc. to collect signatures for the petition to qualify this measure for the ballot. A total of $3,490,600.39 was spent to collect the 585,407 valid signatures required to put this measure before voters, resulting in a total cost per required signature (CPRS) of $5.96.
November 6, 2018:
- Nevada Question 6, Renewable Energy Standards Initiative (2020) - This initiative would require electric utilities to acquire at least 50 percent of their electricity from renewable resources by 2030. In 2018, the ballot initiative was approved as Question 6. In Nevada, however, initiated constitutional amendments need to be approved in two even-numbered election years, meaning that the ballot initiative needed to be approved in 2018 and again in 2020 to amend the Nevada Constitution. A similar measure was on the ballot in Arizona in 2018. It was defeated. Both measures were backed by NextGen Climate Action.
December 21, 2018:
- Michigan Proposal 1, Use of State and Local Park Funds Amendment (2020) - This measure would make changes to how revenue in the state's park-related funds can be spent, including (a) making projects to renovate recreational facilities eligible for grants, (b) allowing the parks endowment fund to be spent on park operations and maintenance, and (c) removing the cap on the size of the natural resources trust fund. The amendment was approved unanimously by both chambers of the state legislature on December 21, 2018, putting the measure on the November 2020 ballot.
Context from past years
States that are likely to feature statewide measures in 2019
Four of the 26 states with a process for citizen-initiated measures allow for ballot initiatives or veto referendums on ballots for elections in any odd-numbered years: Colorado, Maine, Ohio, and Washington. Moreover, citizen-initiated measures could have gone on the Mississippi ballot because of the gubernatorial election in 2019, but no measures in Mississippi qualified to appear on the 2019 statewide ballot. The signature deadline in Mississippi for the 2019 ballot was 90 days prior to the beginning of the regular session. The 2019 regular session of the Mississippi legislative session began on January 8, 2019, meaning that the signature deadline was October 10, 2018. Legislatively referred measures can also go on the ballot in these five states in 2019.
Other states that frequently feature statewide measures referred to the ballot by the legislature in odd-numbered years include Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.
Signature requirement changes caused by 2018 elections
Voter turnout in the 2018 elections caused a change in the number of signatures required for initiatives and veto referendums in 18 of the 26 states that allow at least one form of statewide initiative or referendum.
There are 13 states with initiative signature requirements based on midterm gubernatorial or secretary of state elections. In each of these states, turnout was higher in 2018 than in 2014 and signature requirements increased.
In these 13 states, the signature requirement increases ranged from 3.2 percent in Maine to 70.3 percent in California, where the signature requirements are higher than they have ever been in the state’s 106 years of direct democracy. These increased requirements will apply to the 2020 and 2022 election cycles. In three states—Colorado, Maine, and Ohio—initiatives can go on the ballot in odd-numbered years as well, so the increased requirements will also apply to initiatives for the 2019 and 2021 ballots.
There are four states with signature requirements based on turnout at general elections. In each of those states, turnout in 2018 was lower than in 2016 and signature requirements decreased. In these four states, the signature requirement decreases ranged from 11.3 percent in Alaska to 20.7 percent in Wyoming. These decreased requirements will apply to the 2020 election cycle, after which the requirements will be reset based on the turnout in that election.
Six states base initiative signature requirements on odd-year or presidential year gubernatorial elections. The 2018 elections had no effect on the signature requirements in those states; the requirements will be determined by the 2020 elections.
Three states base signature requirements on voter registration or population. Idaho is one of these and was the fifth state to have a decrease in initiative signature requirements based on 2018 elections. Signature requirements in Idaho are based on voter registration totals at the time of the preceding general election. The other two states that base requirements on voter registration or population, Nebraska and North Dakota, calculate the requirement at certain stages of the initiative process rather than at the time of a previous election, which means no specific change was directly brought about by the 2018 elections.
Signature requirements are determined differently depending on the state. The majority of states with citizen-initiated measures—16—base signature requirements on ballots cast for gubernatorial candidates in the preceding gubernatorial election. Four states base signature requirements on total ballots cast in the preceding general election. Of the remaining states, two states base requirements on voters for presidential candidates within the state, two states base requirements on registered voters, one state bases requirements on votes cast for secretary of state candidates, and one state bases requirements on the state population.
New distribution requirement enacted in Michigan:
The Michigan State Legislature approved and Gov. Rick Snyder (R) signed Michigan House Bill 6595 on December 28, 2018. HB 6595 created a distribution requirement for initiative signature petitions in Michigan limiting the number of signatures collected in any one congressional district to 15 percent of the total required. This effectively requires valid signatures from a minimum of seven different congressional districts for a successful initiative petition.[3]
The bill also required the disclosure on petitions of whether a petitioner is paid or volunteer; mandated a petitioner affidavit; and made other changes regarding petitioners, valid signatures, and the timeline for certification. The bill was passed in the state House on December 12, 2018. It was amended and approved by the state Senate on December 21, 2018, in a vote of 26 to 12. In the Senate, 26 Republicans voted in favor of the bill, and all 11 Democrats along with one Republican, Tory Rocca, voted against the bill. The House concurred with the Senate's amended version on December 21, 2018, in a vote of 57 to 47. Among Republicans, the bill was approved 56 to 5. Among Democrats, the bill was rejected 42 to 1.[4]
- See also: Distribution requirement
Of the 26 states with some form of ballot initiative or veto referendum petition process at the statewide level, 16 other states besides Michigan have a distribution requirement. Of those 16 other states with distribution requirements, seven states have a distribution requirement that is spread out over the state's counties (Arkansas, Massachusetts, Maryland, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wyoming). In five states, it is calculated based on state legislative districts (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Utah). In the other four states with a distribution requirement, it is based on U.S. congressional districts (Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, and Nevada). Washington, D.C., also has a distribution requirement based on city wards. Most recently, Colorado voters approved a distribution requirement specifically for initiated constitutional amendments in 2016. It was put on their ballot through a successful initiative petition.
Legislators in Maine, Oklahoma, and South Dakota considered distribution requirements for citizen initiatives in 2018, but none of the proposals were enacted.
See also
- 2019 ballot measures
- 2020 ballot measures
- List of ballot measures by state
- List of ballot measures by year
- Ballot initiatives filed for the 2019 ballot
- Ballot Measure Scorecard, 2019
- Ballot Measure Scorecard, 2020
- Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2019
- Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2020
Related articles
Footnotes
- ↑ Hastings Tribune, "Bid to toughen California crime laws set for 2020 ballot," July 9, 2018
- ↑ Silicon Valley Business Journal, "'Split roll' proponents delay Prop 13 referendum. Did they accidentally kill it?" April 16, 2018
- ↑ Michigan State Legislature, "House Bill 6595," accessed December 31, 2018
- ↑ Michigan State Legislature, "House Bill 6595," accessed December 31, 2018
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