State Ballot Measure Monthly: November 2017
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By Ballot Measures Project staff
Thirty-three statewide ballot measures in 18 states have been certified for 2018 ballots so far. In the last two months, four statewide measures were certified to go before voters in 2018.
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2018 certifications
Thirty-three statewide ballot measures have been certified for 2018 ballots so far. By this time in 2013, 59 measures had been certified for the 2014 ballot; ultimately, 158 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2014. By this time in 2015, 42 measures had been certified for the 2016 ballot; ultimately, 162 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2016.
- On September 14, 2017, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment in California was officially certified for the June 5, 2018 ballot. The measure was designed to move the effective date of ballot propositions, including citizen initiatives and legislative referrals, from the day after election day to the fifth day after the secretary of state certifies election results.
- On September 29, 2017, a legislatively referred bond act in California was officially certified for the November 6, 2018, ballot. The measure would authorize $4 billion in general obligation bonds for housing-related programs, loans, grants, and projects and housing loans for veterans.
- Another legislatively referred bond act in California was officially certified on October 15, 2017, and will be on the ballot for the June 5, 2018, election. The measure would authorize $4 billion in general obligation bonds for state and local parks, environmental protection and restoration projects, water infrastructure projects, and flood protection projects. It would also require that between 15 and 20 percent of the bond’s funds, depending on type of project, to be dedicated to projects in communities with median household incomes less than 60 percent of the statewide average (about $39,980 in 2016).
- One Oregon measure—a veto referendum targeting the repeal of House Bill 2391, which placed an additional tax assessment on healthcare insurance premiums—was officially certified on October 16, 2017. Specifically, the measure was designed to repeal five sections of House Bill 2391, which placed a 1.5 percent assessment on premiums that healthcare insurers earned and premium equivalents that managed care organizations and the Public Employees’ Benefit Board received during a calendar quarter to provide funding for Medicaid. The measure was also designed repeal a 0.7 percent tax on the net revenue of hospitals to provide funding for Medicaid; however, there is disagreement between the legislative counsel and petitioners over whether the referendum would repeal this tax. The measure would also remove language permitting insurers to increase premiums on healthcare plans to cover the costs of the assessment. This veto referendum will be on the ballot in Oregon for a special election to be held on January 23, 2018.
Context from past years
In 2016, there was a surge in the number of citizen-initiated measures; 76 initiatives and veto referendums were put on the ballot. This was more citizen-initiated measures than we've seen since 2006.
For initiatives to reach the ballot, they must first be filed for the various approval processes in each state and circulated for signature gathering. Only a small percentage of the initiatives filed actually make the ballot. For example, for the 2016 election cycle, an above-average 1,069 initiatives were filed with state officials. This resulted in 2016's 76 certified citizen-initiated measures, a success rate of 7 percent. Since 2010, Maryland (75%), South Dakota (73%), North Dakota (47%), Alaska (43%), and Maine (32%) had the highest success rates on average. Maryland has a veto referendum process but no initiative process; since 2010, four veto referendums have been filed, and three made the ballot.
As of November 1, 2017, 609 initiatives had been filed for circulation targeting 2018 elections. By January 1, 2016, 690 initiatives have been filed targeting the 2016 ballot. In 2010, 2012, and 2014, the average total number of initiatives filed with state officials was about 610. Of the 26 states that feature an initiative process, 2018 initiatives or veto referendums were filed for circulation in 22 of them. Topics range from marijuana legalization, minimum wage, healthcare, and right to work to taxes, education, election and campaign finance rules, and redistricting. Click on the links below to see what initiatives are circulating in your state.
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Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, and New Mexico had no filings as of November 1, 2017.
On average since 2010, the most initiatives were filed in Washington, California, and Colorado, where more than 100 are filed for any given even-numbered year on average. California has seen the highest average number of successful initiative attempts. For 2018, Missouri has seen the most filings at 272—about three times the state's average of 97 since 2010. More filings are expected in the last months of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Look into the signature submission deadlines for 2018 initiatives and veto referendums to understand the timeline for each state.
The map and expandable chart below show the average success rates per year of filed initiatives and referendums (I&R) in each state over the last eight years (in even-numbered years).
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The percentage of filed initiatives that reach the ballot does not necessarily correlate with the ease or difficulty of putting an initiative on the ballot in that state. Some states make filing more difficult or more expensive, making only more serious petitioners take that first step. In some states, initiative proponents file multiple versions of substantively the same initiative and ultimately put their efforts behind one.
The data—including the specific success percentage rates—represented by the map above is available below and can be expanded by clicking show.
| Data for average even-year initiative success rates (2010-2018) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Av. filed | Av. certified | Av. success rate |
| Alabama | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Alaska | 5.20 | 2.00 | 38.46% |
| Arizona | 27.40 | 1.60 | 5.84% |
| Arkansas | 7.40 | 1.60 | 21.62% |
| California | 95.00 | 10.20 | 10.74% |
| Colorado | 102.80 | 5.00 | 4.86% |
| Connecticut | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Delaware | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Florida | 29.20 | 1.80 | 6.16% |
| Georgia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Hawaii | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Idaho | 7.80 | 1.00 | 12.82% |
| Illinois | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Iowa | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kansas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kentucky | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Louisiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Maine | 6.20 | 2.20 | 35.48% |
| Maryland | 0.80 | 0.60 | 75.00% |
| Massachusetts | 31.80 | 3.40 | 10.69% |
| Michigan | 11.20 | 2.20 | 19.64% |
| Minnesota | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Mississippi | 8.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Missouri | 184.50 | 3.20 | 1.73% |
| Montana | 18.80 | 2.20 | 11.70% |
| Nebraska | 6.60 | 0.60 | 9.09% |
| Nevada | 9.40 | 1.80 | 19.15% |
| New Hampshire | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Jersey | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Mexico | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% |
| New York | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Dakota | 7.60 | 3.80 | 50.00% |
| Ohio | 21.80 | 0.40 | 1.83% |
| Oklahoma | 6.80 | 1.20 | 17.65% |
| Oregon | 63.00 | 5.60 | 8.89% |
| Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Rhode Island | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Dakota | 8.40 | 3.80 | 45.24% |
| Tennessee | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Texas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Utah | 2.60 | 0.60 | 23.08% |
| Vermont | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Washington | 128.60 | 4.60 | 3.58% |
| West Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wisconsin | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wyoming | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Average total | 756.20 | 59.40 | 7.86% |
See also
- 2017 ballot measures
- 2018 ballot measures
- List of ballot measures by state
- List of ballot measures by year
- Ballot initiatives filed for the 2018 ballot
- Ballot Measure Scorecard, 2018
Related articles
Footnotes
- ↑ The numbers in the second column indicate how many ballot measures were certified for the ballot in the last two months; for example a "+3" means that three measures were certified in the last two months.
- ↑ This was current as of November 1, 2017. Up to several hundred more filings are expected in late 2017 and the first half of 2018.
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