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State legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
| 2018 Elections | |
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| Choose a chamber below: | |
In November 2018, 87 of 99 state legislative chambers held general elections for 6,073 seats—roughly 82 percent of the 7,383 state legislative seats in the country. As of December 2017, 67 chambers were under GOP control, while Democrats held majorities in 32 chambers.[1]
From 2010 to 2016, Democrats saw a significant decline in their power in state legislatures, losing control of 30 chambers and nearly 1,000 seats. Democrats also saw their number of trifectas decline from 17 prior to the 2010 elections to six following the 2016 elections. Check out the battleground chambers we tracked for the 2018 elections.
This page provides an overview of state legislative Democratic primaries in 2018, including when elections were held, and the political context surrounding the elections. It also provides an analysis of Democratic primary competitiveness in 2018 vs. 2016 and highlights key primaries that occurred in 2018. Of particular note were the New York Democratic primaries, where members of the Independent Democratic Conference were defeated by progressive Democrats angry about their alliance with Republican state senators.
In the aftermath of the 2016 elections, Democratic leaders at different levels of government began to debate the future of the party. "We're going to have a fight. There's no question about it," U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) said of the future of the Democratic Party.[2] The divisions within the Democratic Party played a role in state legislative primaries.
An important ideological divide among Democrats was the division between the respective supporters of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders during the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. According to the Voter Study Group, the division between the Clinton and Sanders supporters was not over substantive policy issues but rather trust in political institutions. The study said that Clinton voters tended to trust political institutions and Democratic Party leaders while Sanders voters tended to mistrust institutions and saw Democratic leaders as beholden to wealthy interest groups.[3]
In June 2016, New Republic published writings from 12 writers on 19 different reasons why the Democratic Party was splitting between Clinton and Sanders supporters.[4] Aside from the divide over trust in political institutions, the writers said the divide between Clinton and Sanders supporters reflected those between moderates and progressives, older voters and millennials, and racial minorities and whites. One of the writings said that divisions in the party would be less important when Democrats competed against Donald Trump (R) for the presidency, a view supported by Democratic strategist David Axelrod in the aftermath of Trump's election.[5]
In state legislative elections, term-limited incumbents, retiring incumbents, and state legislators seeking higher office create opportunities for primary face-offs in open seats. Incumbent officeholders can also attract primary challengers, though incumbents rarely lose in the primary elections. In 2016, more than 1,005 incumbents faced a primary challenger and only 123 were defeated. Members of the Clinton and Sanders Democratic factions competed against each other in open seats and incumbent vs. challenger match-ups. See more about how the 2018 primaries were decided here.
For more in-depth information about the state legislative Republican primaries and general elections, see the following pages:
For more of our 2018 primary coverage, see the following pages:
Partisan balance
Heading into the 2018 elections, Republicans held majorities in 67 of 99 state legislative chambers, including 36 of 50 state senates and 31 of 49 state houses. They also held a majority of state legislative seats. See the charts below for a breakdown of partisan control in state legislatures before and after the 2018 elections.
The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.
| Partisan Control of All 99 State Legislatures | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | ||||
| Legislative Chamber | 
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Split
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| State senates | 14 | 36 | 18 (+4) | 32 (-4) | 0 |
| State houses | 18 | 31 | 19 (+1) | 29 (-2) | 1 |
| Total: | 32 | 67 | 37 (+5) | 61 (-6) | 1 |
The following table details partisan balance of all 7,383 state legislative seats.
| Partisan Balance of All 7,383 State Legislative Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
| Legislative Chamber |
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 [6]
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[6]
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| State senates | 809 | 1,135 | 28 | 869 | 1,076 | 27 | ||
| State houses | 2,314 | 2,986 | 111 | 2,574 | 2,781 | 56 | ||
| Total: | 3,123 | 4,121 | 139 | 3,443 | 3,857 | 83 | ||
Primaries overview
Democratic primaries
By date
By state
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Ohio
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Pennsylvania
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Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
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Battleground primaries
Upcoming battleground primaries
All primaries in 2018 have been held.
Battleground primaries which have already taken place
- Arizona state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Colorado state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Massachusetts state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- New York state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Oregon state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Rhode Island state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Oklahoma state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018/Runoffs
Democratic divisions
Divisions within the Democratic Party include disagreements over policy and ideology, which voters to focus on, and how to define the party after the presidency of Barack Obama (D).[7] Some of these divisions have played out at the state legislative level. Here are some examples:
- In June 2017, California Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D) blocked SB 562—a bill that would have established a single-payer healthcare system in California—after it previously passed the state Senate. Activist groups, including the California Nurses Association, opposed Rendon's move and some organizers established a campaign to recall him.
- In September 2017, Democratic legislators in the Connecticut General Assembly who opposed tax increases went against their party and voted for a budget proposed by the Republican minority. This eventually led to bipartisan budget negotiations and a deal that passed with the support of both parties. Read more about the budget conflict here.
Impact of 2016 presidential election
The November 2018 general elections were a test of the impact of Donald Trump’s (R) presidency on down-ballot state legislative races. Historically, the party that holds the White House loses seats in state legislatures. Democratic gains in the Virginia and New Jersey state legislatures following the November 2017 general election as well as Democratic gains in special state legislative elections in 2017 are consistent with this trend. Primary challenges across the country in 2018 set the stage for general election matchups that could have shifted the partisan balance in state legislatures across the country.
The 2017 Virginia House of Delegates elections gave an indication of what Democratic state legislative primaries would look like in 2018. Democrats ran candidates in 54 of the 66 seats held by Republicans and won 15 of them. Democrats challenged just 23 of 67 Republican seats in the 2015 Virginia House elections and 36 of 65 Republican seats in the 2013 elections. According to the Roanoke Times, Democratic energy was increased due to opposition to President Trump. This increased energy led to a higher number of Democratic candidates running for office and more primary competition. There were 20 contested Democratic primaries in 2017 compared to six in 2015 and three in 2013.[8]
Competitiveness analysis
The graphs below show the number of candidates running for both parties, the number of incumbents facing primary challenges, and the number of total primaries compared to the same point in 2016 elections.
This chart tracks the number of primary challenges to incumbents, the number of incumbents defeated, and total Democratic primaries in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections. See the Republican analysis here.
| State legislative Democratic primaries, 2018 vs. 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2016 | |
| Candidates running | 7121 | 6015 |
| Incumbents retired | 448 | 456 |
| Incumbent primary challenges | 519 | 489 |
| Incumbent primary defeats | 70 | 39 |
| Total Democratic primaries | 1076 | 875 |
Click [Show] to see states with filing deadlines that passed. Click on links inside the chart to see the candidates who ran in the primaries.
Background
Primary competitiveness, 2014-2016
The charts below show our available data on competitiveness in Democratic primaries in state houses and state senates from 2014 to 2016. The following information is included:
- Incumbent primary challenges: The number of incumbents who ran for re-election and faced a primary challenger.
- Incumbent primary challenges (%): The percentage of incumbents who faced primary challenges out of those who ran for re-election.
- Incumbent primary defeats: The number of incumbents who were defeated in their primaries.
- Incumbent primary defeats (%): The percentage of incumbents who were defeated out of those who faced challenges.
- Total Democratic primaries: The total number of Democratic primaries, counting those in seats held by incumbents of both parties and those that occurred in open seats.
- Total Democratic primaries (%): The percentage of races that held Democratic primaries out of all seats that held elections.
| State House Democratic primaries, 2014-2016 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent primary challenges | Incumbent primary defeats | Total Democratic primaries | ||||
| Year | Raw number | % | Raw number | % | Raw number | % |
| 2016 | 318 | 18.5 percent | 35 | 11.0 percent | 599 | 12.7 percent |
| 2014 | 330 | 16.3 percent | 36 | 10.9 percent | N/A | N/A |
| State Senate Democratic primaries, 2014-2016 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent primary challenges | Incumbent primary defeats | Total Democratic primaries | ||||
| Year | Raw number | % | Raw number | % | Raw number | % |
| 2016 | 87 | 18.7 percent | 4 | 4.6 percent | 180 | 14.9 percent |
| 2014 | 82 | N/A | 8 | 9.8 percent | N/A | N/A |
2018 battleground chambers
Ballotpedia tracked 22 state legislative battleground chambers in 2018. Battlegrounds are chambers that we anticipated would be more competitive overall than other chambers and have the potential to see significant shifts in party control. These were the 22 battleground chambers in 2018.
Alaska House of Representatives (Power-sharing between parties)
Arizona State Senate
Colorado House of Representatives
Colorado State Senate (Democratic gain)
Connecticut House of Representatives
Connecticut State Senate
Delaware State Senate
Florida State Senate
Iowa House of Representatives
Maine House of Representatives
Maine State Senate (Democratic gain)
Michigan House of Representatives
Michigan State Senate
Minnesota House of Representatives (Democratic gain)
Nevada State Senate
New Hampshire House of Representatives (Democratic gain)
New Hampshire State Senate (Democratic gain)
New Mexico House of Representatives elections
New York State Senate (Democratic gain)
Washington House of Representatives
Washington State Senate
Wisconsin State Senate
The columns in the chart below list the following information:
- Seats up in 2018: This was the number of seats in the chamber that were up for election in 2018.
- Margin: This was the difference in seats between the majority and minority parties.
- Majority share of seats: This was the percentage of the chamber's total seats controlled by the majority party.
- Last time party control changed?: This was the election where the party in power before the 2018 elections took control of the chamber.
| 2018 battleground chambers | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Seats up in 2018 | Margin | Majority share of seats | Last time party control changed? | Did it flip? | ||||
| Alaska House of Representatives* | All 40 | D+4 | 55 percent | 2016 | Power-sharing agreement | ||||
| Arizona State Senate | 17 of 30 | R+4 | 56.7 percent | 2002 | No | ||||
| Colorado House of Representatives | All 65 | D+7 | 55.4 percent | 2012 | No | ||||
| Colorado State Senate | 17 of 35 | R+2 | 51.4 percent | 2014 | Yes
| ||||
| Connecticut House of Representatives | All 151 | D+9 | 53.0 percent | 1986 | No | ||||
| Connecticut State Senate** | All 36 | D+0 | 50 percent | 1996 | No | ||||
| Delaware State Senate | 10 of 21 | D+1 | 52.4 percent | 1974 | No | ||||
| Florida State Senate | 22 of 40 | R+6 | 55.0 percent | 1994 | No | ||||
| Iowa House of Representatives | All 100 | R+17 | 58.0 percent | 2010 | No | ||||
| Maine House of Representatives | All 151 | D+3 | 48.3 percent | 2012 | No | ||||
| Maine State Senate | All 35 | R+1 | 51.4 percent | 2014 | Yes
| ||||
| Minnesota House of Representatives | All 134 | R+21 | 57.5 percent | 2014 | Yes
| ||||
| Michigan House of Representatives | All 110 | R+17 | 57.3 percent | 2010 | No | ||||
| Michigan State Senate | All 38 | R+17 | 71.1 percent | 1982[13] | No | ||||
| Nevada State Senate | 11 of 21 | D+2 | 47.6 percent | 2016 | No | ||||
| New Hampshire House of Representatives | All 400 | R+45 | 53.0 percent | 2014 | Yes
| ||||
| New Hampshire State Senate | All 24 | R+4 | 58.3 percent | 2010 | Yes
| ||||
| New Mexico House of Representatives | All 70 | D+7 | 54.3 percent | 2016 | No | ||||
| New York State Senate* | All 63 | R+1 | 50.8 percent | 2010 | Yes
| ||||
| Washington House of Representatives | All 98 | D+2 | 51.0 percent | 1998 | No | ||||
| Washington State Senate | 24 of 49 | D+1 | 51.0 percent | 2012 | No | ||||
| Wisconsin State Senate | 18 of 33 | R+3 | 54.5 percent | 2010 | No | ||||
*This chamber were controlled by a minority party coalition because some members of the party with the numerical majority caucus with the minority party.
** This chamber was evenly divided 18-18 following the 2016 elections. Democrats maintained an effective majority because Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Wyman (D) could cast tie-breaking votes.
Changes in chamber partisan control, 2010 to 2017
Prior to the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 61 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and one chamber was split between the parties. In the six years that followed, Republicans made significant gains and took control of many of the chambers that were previously held by Democrats. Following the 2016 elections, Republicans controlled 68 chambers and Democrats controlled 31. After the November 2017 elections, Republicans controlled 67 chambers and Democrats controlled 32.
From 2010 to 2017, there were 54 instances where a state legislative chamber changed partisan control. Of these 54 changes, 40 involved a chamber changing from Democratic to Republican control and 11 involved a chamber changing from Republican to Democratic control. The other three involved chambers that were split between the two parties (Oregon House in 2010 and 2012; Montana House in 2010).
Most of the changes came during major elections but some also came through special elections (Louisiana House in 2010; Washington Senate in 2017) and party switching (Louisiana House in 2010; Mississippi Senate in 2011). In some cases, the party that gained control did not have a numerical majority but instead controlled the chamber through a bipartisan coalition (i.e., Alaska House in 2016). This table does not account for changes in party control or ties in a chamber that lasted for less than one year and were not the result of a regularly scheduled election. An example of this is the brief period of Democratic control in the Virginia State Senate in 2014.[14]
From 2010 to 2017, 39 chambers switched control: 28 switched control once, seven switched control twice, and four switched control three times. Eleven of the 15 battleground chambers in 2018 switched control at least once from 2010 to 2017. For the 50 instances where a chamber switched control in a regularly scheduled election, the average majority controlled 55.7 percent of its chamber's seat heading into the election.
For this chart, a red box indicates that the chamber flipped from Democratic to Republican control, and a blue box indicates that the chamber flipped from Republican to Democratic control.
| Chamber changes in partisan control: 2010-2017 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party changes in 2010 | Party changes in 2011 | Party changes in 2012 | Party changes in 2014 | Party changes in 2016 | Party changes in 2017 | |||
| Alabama Senate | Louisiana Senate[15][16] | Alaska Senate | Colorado Senate | Alaska House | Washington Senate | |||
| Alabama House | Mississippi Senate[17][18] | Arkansas Senate | Maine Senate | Iowa Senate | ||||
| Colorado House | Mississippi House | Arkansas House | Minnesota House | Kentucky House | ||||
| Indiana House | Virginia Senate[19] | Colorado House | Nevada Senate | Minnesota Senate | ||||
| Iowa House | Maine Senate | Nevada House | Nevada Senate | |||||
| Louisiana House[20][21] | Maine House | New Hampshire House | Nevada House | |||||
| Maine Senate | Minnesota Senate | New Mexico House | New Mexico House | |||||
| Maine House | Minnesota House | West Virginia Senate | ||||||
| Michigan House | New Hampshire House | West Virginia House | ||||||
| Minnesota Senate | Oregon House[22] | |||||||
| Minnesota House | Washington Senate | |||||||
| Montana House[23] | ||||||||
| New Hampshire Senate | ||||||||
| New Hampshire House | ||||||||
| New York Senate | ||||||||
| North Carolina Senate | ||||||||
| North Carolina House | ||||||||
| Ohio House | ||||||||
| Oregon House[24] | ||||||||
| Pennsylvania House | ||||||||
| Wisconsin Senate | ||||||||
| Wisconsin House | ||||||||
| Total changes: 22 | Total changes: 4 | Total changes: 11 | Total changes: 9 | Total changes: 7 | Total changes: 1 | |||
State legislative seats from 2010 to 2016
Throughout Barack Obama's (D) tenure as president, from 2009 to 2017, Democrats experienced losses in state legislative elections, totaling 968 seats. As of January 2009, Democrats controlled 4,082 of the country's 7,383 legislative seats (55.3 percent). By January 2017, they controlled 3,114 seats (42.2 percent). During the same time, Republicans increased their seats from 3,223 (43.7 percent) to 4,171 (56.5 percent). In 82 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans held more seats in January 2017 than they did in January 2009.[25]
It is normal for a party to lose ground in state legislatures when their party controls the presidency for two terms. Between the time of Franklin Roosevelt (D) and George W. Bush (R), the political party of the president lost, on average, 450 state legislative seats while holding the White House. The losses that the Democratic Party sustained under Obama, however, were exceptional, rivaled only by the terms of Richard Nixon (R) and Dwight Eisenhower (R), when Republicans lost 800 and 843 seats, respectively.
Trifectas from 2010 to 2017
- See also: State government trifectas
A state government trifecta occurs when one political party controls the primary levers of power in a state: the governor's office, the state Senate, and the state House. Since 2010, the Republican Party has increased its number of trifectas and the Democratic Party has seen a decline in its trifectas. Prior to the 2010 elections, Democrats had 17 trifectas, Republicans had 10, and 23 states were under divided government. After the 2016 elections, Republicans had 25 trifectas, Democrats had six, and 19 states were under divided government. In August 2017, Republicans picked up another trifecta when West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice changed his partisan affiliation from Democratic to Republican. In the November 2017 elections, Democrats won a special election in the Washington State Senate and gained control of the chamber. The Democratic Party also took the governorship of New Jersey, although incoming governor Phil Murphy (D) was not sworn in until January 2018. This made Washington and New Jersey Democratic trifectas and brought the total number of trifectas to 26 for Republicans and eight for Democrats, with 16 states under divided government.
This chart shows the number of trifectas each party held heading into elections from 2010 to 2018.
| Trifectas by year: 2010-2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | States under divided government |
| Pre-2010 elections | 17 | 10 | 23 |
| Pre-2012 elections | 11 | 22 | 17 |
| Pre-2014 elections | 12 | 24 | 14 |
| Pre-2016 elections | 7 | 23 | 20 |
| Pre-2018 elections[26] | 8 | 26 | 16 |
Click on the map below to see the trifecta status of different states following elections from 2010 to 2016.
Current state government trifectas
State government trifectas, post-2024 elections
State government trifectas, pre-2024 elections
State government trifectas, post-2022 elections
State government trifectas, pre-2022 elections
State government trifectas, post-2020 elections
State government trifectas, pre-2020 elections
State government trifectas, post-2018 elections
State government trifectas, pre-2018 elections
State government trifectas, post-2016 elections
State government trifectas, pre-2016 elections
State government trifectas, pre-2014
State government trifectas, pre-2012
State government trifectas, pre-2010
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Although the Nebraska State Senate elects its members in nonpartisan elections, members of the chamber generally function along party lines when it comes to voting and caucusing. Please see Nebraska State Senate partisan affiliation for more information.
- ↑ TIME, "Divided Democratic Party Debates Its Future as 2020 Looms," September 21, 2017
- ↑ Voter Study Group, "Political Divisions in 2016 and Beyond," June 2017
- ↑ New Republic, "The Split," June 14, 2017
- ↑ NPR, "How Divisions Among Democrats Compare To Those Among Republicans," October 27, 2017
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Third party incumbents and vacancies.
- ↑ NPR, "How Divisions Among Democrats Compare To Those Among Republicans," October 27, 2017
- ↑ Roanoke Times, "Amid Trump resistance, Virginia Democrats see surge of candidates for House of Delegates," March 11, 2017
- ↑ Alabama did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
- ↑ Maryland did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
- ↑ California uses top-two primaries where all candidates, regardless of party, run in the primary. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
- ↑ Washington uses top-two primaries where all candidates, regardless of party, run in the primary. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
- ↑ Detroit News, "Democrats in Michigan seek to flip state House in 2018," July 8, 2018
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Virginia Republicans snatched control of the state Senate, ended budget-Medicaid impasse," June 9, 2014
- ↑ The chamber first changed from Democratic to Republican control in a February 2011 special election. Republicans increased their majority to 24-15 in the 2011 elections.
- ↑ Fox News, "GOP Candidate Wins Lousiana [sic] Senate Special Election, Shifting Majority," February 20, 2011
- ↑ The chamber changed partisan control prior to the 2011 elections due to Democrats switching to the Republican Party and special election wins by Republicans. Republicans increased their majority in the 2011 elections to 31-21.
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Southern Democrats in dire straits; 2011 looms large," January 11, 2011
- ↑ In the 2011 elections, the chamber changed from a 22-18 Democratic advantage to a 20-20 tie. Republicans effectively controlled the chamber because Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling (R) could cast tie-breaking votes.
- ↑ This chamber did not hold elections in 2010. It switched partisan control in December 2010 when Democrat Noble Ellington changed his party affiliation to Republican. In the regularly-scheduled 2011 elections, Republicans increased their majority to 58-45.
- ↑ Nola.com, "Louisiana Republicans take first House majority since Reconstruction with latest party switch," December 17, 2010
- ↑ In this election, the Oregon House changed from a 30-30 tie to a 34-26 Democratic advantage.
- ↑ This chamber went from a 50-50 tie to a 68-32 Republican advantage in the 2010 elections.
- ↑ This chamber went from a 36-24 Democratic advantage to a 30-30 tie in the 2010 elections.
- ↑ Data compiled by Ballotpedia staff
- ↑ Last updated February 9, 2018.
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