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State legislative battleground chambers, 2022

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Last updated: October 28, 2022
Eighty-eight state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections in 2022. Ballotpedia identified 28 of those chambers as state legislative battlegrounds. At the time of the 2022 elections, Republicans controlled 19 battleground chambers and Democrats controlled eight. The Alaska House of Representatives had a multipartisan coalition, although Republicans had a 21-15 majority.

Democrats won control of four battleground chambers, all of which Republicans previously controlled: the Michigan Senate and House, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House. While the Alaska House remained controlled by a multipartisan governing coalition following the 2022 elections, the makeup of that coalition changed from one primarily made up of Democrats and independents to one primarily made up of Republicans.

In 2020, 86 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections. Ballotpedia identified 24 of those chambers as battlegrounds. Republicans gained control of two Democratic-held battleground chambers that year: the New Hampshire State Senate and New Hampshire House of Representatives.

Ballotpedia identified the following state legislative chambers as 2022 battlegrounds:

Cross filed Republican Party/Democratic Party Alaska House of Representatives
Republican Party Arizona State Senate
Republican Party Arizona House of Representatives
Democratic Party Colorado State Senate
Democratic Party Delaware State Senate
Republican Party Florida State Senate
Republican Party Georgia State Senate
Republican Party Georgia House of Representatives
Republican Party Iowa House of Representatives
Democratic Party Maine State Senate
Democratic Party Maine House of Representatives
Republican Party Michigan State Senate
Republican Party Michigan House of Representatives
Republican Party Minnesota State Senate
Democratic Party Minnesota House of Representatives
Republican Party Nebraska State Senate
Democratic Party Nevada State Senate
Democratic Party Nevada State Assembly
Republican Party New Hampshire State Senate
Republican Party New Hampshire House of Representatives
Republican Party North Carolina State Senate
Republican Party North Carolina House of Representatives
Republican Party Pennsylvania State Senate
Republican Party Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Republican Party Texas House of Representatives
Democratic Party Washington State Senate
Republican Party West Virginia House of Delegates
Republican Party Wisconsin State Assembly

Results

After Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans controlled 15 battleground chambers, Democrats controlled 12, and a multipartisan coalition controlled the Alaska House.

Democrats won control of four battleground chambers, all of which Republicans previously controlled: the Michigan Senate and House, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House. While the Alaska House remained controlled by a multipartisan governing coalition following the 2022 elections, the makeup of that coalition changed from one primarily made up of Democrats and independents to one primarily made up of Republicans.

Democrats gained seats in 13 battleground chambers, Republicans gained seats in eight, and independents gained seats in one. The partisan balance of six battleground chambers did not change.

The table below shows the results in all 28 battleground chambers including partisan control figures before and after the election.[1] The rightmost column shows the net change in seats.

State legislative battleground chamber election results, 2022
Chamber Switch? Pre-election Post-election Change
Control D R O Control D R O
Alaska House N S 15 21 4 S 13 21 6 O+2
Arizona Senate N R 14 16 R 14 16 -
Arizona House N R 29 31 R 29 31 -
Colorado Senate N D 21 14 D 23 12 D+2
Delaware Senate N D 14 7 D 15 6 D+1
Florida Senate N R 16 24 R 12 28 R+4
Georgia Senate N R 22 34 R 23 33 D+1
Georgia House N R 77 103 R 79 101 D+2
Iowa House N R 40 60 R 36 64 R+4
Maine Senate N D 22 13 D 22 13 -
Maine House N D 82 66 3 D 82 67 2 R+1
Michigan Senate Y R 16 22 D 20 18 D+4
Michigan House Y R 53 57 D 56 54 D+3
Minnesota Senate Y R 31 34 2 D 34 33 D+3
Minnesota House N D 69 64 1 D 70 64 D+1
Nebraska Senate N R 17 32 R 17 32 -
Nevada Senate N D 12 9 D 13 8 D+1
Nevada Assembly N D 26 16 D 28 14 D+2
New Hampshire Senate N R 10 14 R 10 14 -
New Hampshire House N R 188 211 1 R 198 201 D+10[2]
North Carolina Senate N R 22 28 R 20 30 R+2
North Carolina House N R 51 69 R 49 71 R+2
Pennsylvania Senate N R 21 28 1 R 22 28 D+1
Pennsylvania House Y R 90 113 D 102 101 D+12
Texas House N R 65 85 R 64 86 R+1
Washington Senate N D 29 20 D 29 20 -
West Virginia House N R 22 78 R 12 88 R+10
Wisconsin Assembly N R 38 61 R 35 64 R+3

Background

Of the 88 chambers that held regularly-scheduled elections in 2022, Ballotpedia identified 28 battleground chambers in 19 states. We anticipated that these chambers would be more competitive overall and had the potential to see major shifts in party control. Two of those chambers (the Nevada State Assembly and Wisconsin State Assembly) were not battleground chambers at any point in the preceding decade.

The columns in the chart below list the following:

  • Seats up in 2022: This was the number of seats that were up for election in 2022.
  • Margin: This was the difference in seats between the majority and minority parties.
  • Majority share of seats: This was the percentage of the chamber's seats controlled by the majority party.
  • Last time party control changed: This was the election where the majority at the time of the 2022 elections took control of the chamber.


Outside ratings

The following legislative chamber race ratings came from CNalysis and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[4][5][6] Use the arrows in the upper righthand corner of the table below to see more states' chamber ratings. You may also search by state, chamber, or rating in the upper lefthand corner.


Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses in battleground races

Candidate Connection Logo.png

All major party candidates in 39 battleground state legislative races completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click the links below to view the candidates’ survey responses.

State-by-state breakdown

This section gives an overview of each of the 28 battleground chambers in 2022 and explains what criteria each chamber met to make our list.

Why were these chambers highlighted?

Ballotpedia's approach to determining what is and is not a battleground chamber relied on a series of criteria, with exceptions made in specific outlying cases. Ballotpedia scored the competitiveness of each state legislative chamber holding elections in 2022, with each of the following criteria being worth 1 point:

  • Partisan control of two or fewer seats needed to change in order to change control of the full chamber.
  • Partisan control of 15% or less of the seats up for election in 2022 needed to change in order to change control of the full chamber.
  • 15% or more of the seats up for election in 2022 were decided by margins of 10% or less the last time they were up for election.
  • Partisan control of 10% or more of the seats up for election in 2022 changed the last time they were up for election.
  • There are more seats up for election in 2022 where partisan control changed the last time the seat was up for election than the number of seats where partisan control would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
  • The chamber was a battleground chamber in 2020.
  • A battleground state executive official election took place in the same state in 2022.
  • Partisan control of the chamber changed two or more times between 2012 and 2022.

Cross filed Republican Party/Democratic Party Alaska House

Republican Party Arizona Senate

Republican Party Arizona House

Democratic Party Colorado Senate

Democratic Party Delaware Senate

Republican Party Florida Senate

Republican Party Georgia Senate

Republican Party Georgia House

Republican Party Iowa House

Democratic Party Maine Senate

Democratic Party Maine House

Republican Party Michigan Senate

Republican Party Michigan House

Republican Party Minnesota Senate

Democratic Party Minnesota House

Republican Party Nebraska Senate

Democratic Party Nevada Senate

Democratic Party Nevada Assembly

Republican Party New Hampshire Senate

Republican Party New Hampshire House

Republican Party North Carolina Senate

Republican Party North Carolina House

Republican Party Pennsylvania Senate

Republican Party Pennsylvania House

Republican Party Texas House

Democratic Party Washington Senate

Republican Party West Virginia House

Republican Party Wisconsin Assembly

Analysis and commentary

Commentary and analysis in the lead-up to the 2022 state legislative elections focused on both parties' narratives related to election administration and voting policy as well as the potential impact of the national political environment.

In their final pre-election assessment, Sabato's Crystal Ball wrote:

“ What seemed like a massing Republican wave, fed by widespread disenchantment with President Joe Biden, now seems like a more mixed environment. While the historical patterns continue to favor the out-of-power party — in this case the GOP — that tendency is now somewhat balanced by Democratic dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the abortion decision Roe vs. Wade, as well as the choices by Republican primary voters to choose strong supporters of former President Donald Trump in many statewide races, a development that could turn off independents and moderate Republicans and reverberate down to legislative contests.[2] ”
—Louis Jacobson, Center for Politics[3]

National Public Radio described the contests in terms of each party's policy priorities, writing of Democrats that:

“ Democrats and Democratically-aligned outside spending groups are pouring money into competitive state legislature races where they see an opportunity to flip seats.

"A single Arizona state Senate seat could be more important than any other election in the country this year when it comes to the health and stability of our democracy," says Daniel Squadron, former state senator from New York and founder of the super PAC The States Project.[2]

”
—Laura Benshoff, National Public Radio[4]

National Public Radio said of Republicans that:

“ "We've said from the start that our number one priority this year is defending our razor-thin majorities in states like Arizona, Michigan, and New Hampshire," RSLC Communications Director Andrew Romeo wrote to NPR. "That hasn't changed as we come down the stretch."

The overturning of Roe v. Wade has boosted Democrats, making the possibility of a total "red wave" less certain.[2]

”
—Laura Benshoff, National Public Radio[4]

FiveThirtyEight's analysis suggested state legislative elections could be the most important taking place in 2022:

“ According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, the most likely outcome of the 2022 election in Washington, D.C., is a split government, with Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress but Democrats still holding the White House. That could very well mean that the only policymaking of note for the next two years will take place on the state level. They may not get the same amount of attention, but these races for state legislature and governor are arguably more important ones on the ballot this year.[2] ”
—Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight[5]

Political context

The 2022 elections occurred in the aftermath of Republican gains in the 2020 and 2021 elections, which followed Democratic gains in 2017, 2018, and 2019. This was the first even-year state legislative election during Joe Biden's (D) presidency. In the 2021 elections, Republicans gained control of the Virginia House of Delegates.

Changes in chamber partisan control, 2010 to 2022

See also: Partisan composition of state legislatures

From 2010 to 2022, 41 chambers switched control: 21 switched control once, 15 switched control twice, one switched control three times, three switched control four times, and one—the New Hampshire House of Representatives—switched control five times. During that same time, there were 58 chambers that did not switch control.

Before the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 60 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and neither party controlled the remaining two chambers. After the 2022 elections, Democrats controlled 40 chambers and Republicans controlled 57. Multipartisan majorities controlled the Alaska Senate and House.

Most changes of partisan control came as a result of major elections but some also came through special elections (Louisiana House in 2010; Washington Senate in 2017) and party-switching (Louisiana House in 2010; Mississippi Senate in 2011). In some cases, the party that gained control did not have a numerical majority but instead controlled the chamber through a bipartisan coalition (i.e., Alaska House in 2016). This table does not account for changes in party control or ties in a chamber that lasted for less than one year and were not the result of a regularly scheduled election. An example of this is the brief period of Democratic control in the Virginia State Senate in 2014.[6]

For this chart, a red box indicates that the chamber changed from Democratic to Republican control, and a blue box indicates that the chamber changed from Republican to Democratic control.[7]

Chamber changes in partisan control: 2010-2022
Party changes in 2010 Party changes in 2011 Party changes in 2012 Party changes in 2014 Party changes in 2016 Party changes in 2017 Party changes in 2018 Party changes in 2019 Party changes in 2020 Party changes in 2021 Party changes in 2022
Alabama Senate Louisiana Senate[8][9] Alaska Senate Colorado Senate Alaska House Washington Senate Alaska House[10] Virginia Senate New Hampshire Senate Virginia House Alaska Senate[11]
Alabama House Mississippi Senate[12][13] Arkansas Senate Maine Senate Iowa Senate Colorado Senate Virginia House New Hampshire House Michigan House
Colorado House Mississippi House Arkansas House Minnesota House Kentucky House Maine Senate Michigan Senate
Indiana House Virginia Senate[14] Colorado House Nevada Senate Minnesota Senate Minnesota House Minnesota Senate
Iowa House Maine Senate Nevada House Nevada Senate New Hampshire House Pennsylvania House[15]
Louisiana House[16][17] Maine House New Hampshire House Nevada House New Hampshire Senate
Maine Senate Minnesota Senate New Mexico House New Mexico House New York Senate
Maine House Minnesota House West Virginia Senate
Michigan House New Hampshire House West Virginia House
Minnesota Senate Oregon House[18]
Minnesota House Washington Senate
Montana House[19]
New Hampshire Senate
New Hampshire House
New York Senate
North Carolina Senate
North Carolina House
Ohio House
Oregon House[20]
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Senate
Wisconsin House
Total changes: 22 Total changes: 4 Total changes: 11 Total changes: 9 Total changes: 7 Total changes: 1 Total changes: 7 Total changes: 2 Total changes: 2 Total changes: 1 Total changes: 5


The chart below shows how many chambers each party controlled after the November elections in a given year.

Partisan control of state legislative chambers: 2010-2022
Election Democratic chambers Republican chambers Other
Before 2010 60 37 2
2010 38 59 2
2011 35 60 4
2012 41 56 2
2013 41 56 2
2014 30 68 1
2015 30 68 1
2016 31 68 0
2017 32 67 0
2018 37 61 1
2019 39 59 1
2020 37 61 1
2021 36 62 1
2022 40 57 2


Trifectas from 2010 to 2022

See also: State government trifectas

A state government trifecta occurs when one political party controls the primary levers of power in a state: the governor's office, the state Senate, and the state House. From 2010 to 2018, the Republican Party increased its number of trifectas and the Democratic Party saw a decline in its trifectas. Democrats picked up six trifectas in the 2018 elections, and Republicans lost four trifectas. Following the 2021 elections, the Democratic trifecta in Virginia became a split government after Republicans gained control of the state House and governorship.

This chart shows the number of trifectas each party held heading into elections from 2010 to 2022, and the number of trifectas following the 2022 elections.

Trifectas by year: 2010-2022
Election Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas States under divided government
Pre-2010 elections 17 10 23
Pre-2012 elections 11 22 17
Pre-2014 elections 12 24 14
Pre-2016 elections 7 23 20
Pre-2018 elections 8 26 16
Pre-2020 elections 15 21 14
Pre-2021 elections 15 23 12
Pre-2022 elections 14 23 13
Post-2022 elections 17 22 11



See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Nebraska Legislature, "History of the Nebraska Unicameral," accessed February 9, 2021
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  3. ↑ Center for Politics, "The (Updated) Battle for the Statehouses," October 20, 2022
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 National Public Radio, "State legislative races are on the front lines of democracy this midterm cycle," October 28, 2022
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "The Most Important Elections Of 2022 Could Be In State Legislatures," October 26, 2022
  6. ↑ The Washington Post, "Virginia Republicans snatched control of the state Senate, ended budget-Medicaid impasse," June 9, 2014
  7. ↑ 2015 and 2013 are not included because no chambers changed those years.
  8. ↑ The chamber first changed from Democratic to Republican control in a February 2011 special election. Republicans increased their majority to 24-15 in the 2011 elections.
  9. ↑ Fox News, "GOP Candidate Wins Lousiana [sic] Senate Special Election, Shifting Majority," February 20, 2011
  10. ↑ Chamber went from being controlled by a Democratic-led bipartisan coalition to being led by a coalition with power split between the parties.
  11. ↑ Chamber went from a Republican majority to a bipartisan governing coalition.
  12. ↑ The chamber changed partisan control prior to the 2011 elections due to Democrats switching to the Republican Party and special election wins by Republicans. Republicans increased their majority in the 2011 elections to 31-21.
  13. ↑ The Washington Post, "Southern Democrats in dire straits; 2011 looms large," January 11, 2011
  14. ↑ In the 2011 elections, the chamber changed from a 22-18 Democratic advantage to a 20-20 tie. Republicans effectively controlled the chamber because Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling (R) could cast tie-breaking votes.
  15. ↑ Democrats won a majority of seats, but did not have a majority when the legislative session began due to vacancies created during the interim.
  16. ↑ This chamber did not hold elections in 2010. It switched partisan control in December 2010 when Democrat Noble Ellington changed his party affiliation to Republican. In the regularly-scheduled 2011 elections, Republicans increased their majority to 58-45.
  17. ↑ Nola.com, "Louisiana Republicans take first House majority since Reconstruction with latest party switch," December 17, 2010
  18. ↑ In this election, the Oregon House changed from a 30-30 tie to a 34-26 Democratic advantage.
  19. ↑ This chamber went from a 50-50 tie to a 68-32 Republican advantage in the 2010 elections.
  20. ↑ This chamber went from a 36-24 Democratic advantage to a 30-30 tie in the 2010 elections.
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