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State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2021

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Last updated on November 18, 2024
2021 State Legislative Competitiveness
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There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, in two states. Overall, 203 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 40 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the fourth-largest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

In 2021:

  • There were 23 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 18% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 10% increase from 2017.
  • There were 17 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 22% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 55% increase from 2017.
  • No minor party or independent incumbents faced contested primaries.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—40—was up from 2017 (32), the last time both states held elections, representing a 25% increase.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2021
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 180 101 20 19.8% 66 16 24.2% 167 36 21.6%
    Senate 40 24 3 12.5% 12 1 8.3% 36 4 11.1%
    Total 220 125 23 18.4% 78 17 21.8% 203 40 19.7%


    Click [show] on the table below to view incumbents in contested primaries statistics by state in 2021. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2021.


    Click [show] on the table below to view overall incumbents in contested primaries statistics by state from 2011 to 2021. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    By state

    Overview

    New Jersey

    There were 120 seats up for election in New Jersey. A total of 108 incumbents filed for re-election: 71 Democrats and 37 Republicans. Of that total, 23 incumbents—nine Democrats and 14 Republicans—faced contested primaries, representing 21.3% of incumbents who filed for re-election.

    In 2021

    Statistics from 2021 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in New Jersey, 2021
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 80 47 6 12.8% 25 13 52.0% 72 19 26.4%
    Senate 40 24 3 12.5% 12 1 8.3% 36 4 11.1%
    Total 120 71 9 12.7% 37 14 37.8% 108 23 21.3%

    2011-2021

    Historical statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in New Jersey, 2011-2021
    Year Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    2011 120 63 12 19.0% 43 6 14.0% 106 18 17.0%
    2013 120 68 12 17.6% 46 5 10.9% 114 17 14.9%
    2015 80 43 4 9.3% 30 3 10.0% 73 7 9.6%
    2017 120 71 18 25.4% 36 8 22.2% 107 26 24.3%
    2019 80 53 22 41.5% 23 3 13.0% 76 25 32.9%
    2021 120 71 9 12.7% 37 14 37.8% 108 23 21.3%


    See also:

    Virginia

    There were 100 seats up for election in Virginia. A total of 95 incumbents filed for re-election: 54 Democrats and 41 Republicans. Of that total, 17 incumbents—14 Democrats and three Republicans—faced contested primaries, representing 17.9% of incumbents who filed for re-election.

    In 2021

    Statistics from 2021 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Virginia, 2021
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 100 54 14 25.9% 41 3 7.3% 95 17 17.9%
    Senate Did not hold elections
    Total 100 54 14 25.9% 41 3 7.3% 95 17 17.9%

    2011-2021

    Historical statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Virginia, 2011-2021
    Year Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    2011 140 53 1 1.9% 68 1 1.5% 122 2 1.6%
    2013 100 30 2 6.7% 61 5 8.2% 91 7 7.7%
    2015 140 45 4 8.9% 80 6 7.5% 125 10 8.0%
    2017 100 33 3 9.1% 60 3 5.0% 93 6 6.5%
    2019 140 63 9 14.3% 61 5 8.2% 124 14 11.3%
    2021 100 54 14 25.9% 41 3 7.3% 95 17 17.9%


    See also:


    Terms and definitions

    Incumbent

    See also: Incumbent

    Ballotpedia defines incumbency by chamber. Under this definition, if an incumbent in House District 1 filed for re-election in House District 2, they would still be counted as an incumbent due to their remaining in the same chamber even though they ran for a different seat. If an incumbent in House District 1 filed to run in Senate District 2, they would not be counted as an incumbent in the Senate race since they are coming from a different chamber.

    Ballotpedia uses the term re-elect to refer to any incumbent who is running in an election to retain their office, including incumbents who were originally appointed to their position.

    Contested primary

    See also: Primary election

    A contested primary is one where there are more candidates running than nominations available, meaning at least one candidate on the primary ballot must lose.

    The number of candidates needed to create a contested primary depends on the primary system in place and the number of seats up for election in a state legislative district.

    In states with partisan primaries, a primary is typically contested when two or more candidates from the same political party file to run since only one candidate can receive their party's nomination. In states with multi-member state legislative districts, the number of candidates a party can nominate to the general election ballot depends on the number of seats in the district. In these cases, a primary is contested when at least one more candidate files to run than there are seats in the district. In states with top-two/four primaries, a primary is contested when more than two (in states with a top-two system) or more than four (in states with a top-four system) candidates file to run.

    Methodology

    Counting incumbents in contested primaries

    An incumbent is counted as facing a contested primary when there is a chance that incumbent could lose to a primary challenger. Each incumbent is counted individually.

    Typically, in a single-member district, this means the incumbent filed for re-election and faced one or more primary challengers.

    But in states with multi-member districts, several incumbents might be seeking re-election. If such a primary becomes contested, every incumbent running for re-election is counted as facing a contested primary even if it is not possible for every incumbent to lose.

    For example, in a district with two seats where two Democratic incumbents file for re-election, if a third Democrat joins the primary, both of the Democratic incumbents are counted as facing a contested primary even though the third primary challenger can only potentially defeat one.

    In the event of an incumbent v. incumbent primary, where there are more incumbents running in the primary than nominations available, every incumbent present is counted as facing a contested primary.

    Candidacy withdrawals

    See also: Signature requirements and deadlines for 2021 state government elections

    In order to have their names printed on election ballots, candidates must submit information prior to a filing deadline. Filing deadlines are the dates by which candidates must submit required paperwork to state election administrators.

    For major party candidates, filing deadlines always precede primaries. However, candidates may choose to withdraw before the primary takes place. Withdrawals include decisions to leave the race, disqualifications, and deaths. These withdrawals are either official or unofficial.

    An official withdrawal means the candidate withdrew before a specific date set in state law and their name was removed from the primary ballot. If an incumbent officially withdrew before the primary, they are not included in any of the totals of this analysis, unless they later re-entered the race as a minor party or independent candidate.

    An unofficial withdrawal means the candidate withdrew after a specific date set in state law, typically after ballots have been printed, meaning their name remains on the ballot even though they are not actively campaigning. If an incumbent unofficially withdrew, they are included in the totals of this analysis.

    Minor party and independent incumbents

    Minor party and independent incumbents typically do not participate in primaries in the same way major party incumbents might.

    For minor party incumbents, nominations are normally carried out via conventions, which are limited to a smaller number of voting delegates. Ballotpedia does not count conventions as primaries.

    Independent incumbents normally do not participate in primaries, qualifying instead for the general election ballot directly.

    If a minor party or independent incumbent participates in a contested primary (partisan or top-two/four), they are included in the total number of incumbents in contested primaries.

    All minor party or independent incumbents who have filed for re-election are included in the total number of incumbents running at the time of the primary even if the filing deadline was later than the primary date.

    Convention defeats

    If an incumbent is defeated in a convention and did not appear in any later elections, that incumbent is still included in the total number of incumbents who filed for re-election even though they were not running at the time of the primary.

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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