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Texas' 12th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Texas' 12th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Kay Granger (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 12th Congressional District
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Texas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 12th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Kay Granger won election in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 12.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Kay Granger, who was first elected in 1996.

Texas' 12th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Parker County and parts of Tarrant and Wise counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 12th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 37.9 33
Republican candidate Republican Party 60.5 63.7
Difference 22.6 30.7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 12

Incumbent Kay Granger defeated Lisa Welch and Trey Holcomb in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 12 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kay Granger
Kay Granger (R)
 
63.7
 
233,853
Image of Lisa Welch
Lisa Welch (D) Candidate Connection
 
33.0
 
121,250
Image of Trey Holcomb
Trey Holcomb (L) Candidate Connection
 
3.2
 
11,918

Total votes: 367,021
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 12

Lisa Welch defeated Danny Anderson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 12 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Lisa Welch
Lisa Welch Candidate Connection
 
81.1
 
36,750
Image of Danny Anderson
Danny Anderson
 
18.9
 
8,588

Total votes: 45,338
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 12

Incumbent Kay Granger defeated Chris Putnam in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 12 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kay Granger
Kay Granger
 
58.0
 
43,420
Image of Chris Putnam
Chris Putnam
 
42.0
 
31,420

Total votes: 74,840
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 12

Trey Holcomb advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 12 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
Image of Trey Holcomb
Trey Holcomb (L) Candidate Connection

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+18, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 18 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 12th Congressional District the 50th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.04. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.04 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kay Granger Republican Party $3,247,939 $3,358,466 $310,674 As of December 31, 2020
Lisa Welch Democratic Party $122,471 $122,388 $83 As of December 31, 2020
Trey Holcomb Libertarian Party $967 $457 $510 As of June 30, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Texas' 12th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 12th Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 12th Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 12th Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 12th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 12

Incumbent Kay Granger defeated Vanessa Adia and Jacob Leddy in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 12 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kay Granger
Kay Granger (R)
 
64.3
 
172,557
Image of Vanessa Adia
Vanessa Adia (D)
 
33.9
 
90,994
Image of Jacob Leddy
Jacob Leddy (L)
 
1.8
 
4,940

Total votes: 268,491
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 12

Vanessa Adia advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 12 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Vanessa Adia
Vanessa Adia
 
100.0
 
21,018

Total votes: 21,018
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 12

Incumbent Kay Granger advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 12 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kay Granger
Kay Granger
 
100.0
 
49,385

Total votes: 49,385
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 12th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Kay Granger (R) defeated Bill Bradshaw (D) and Ed Colliver (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Granger and Bradshaw both ran unopposed in their respective primaries on March 1, 2016.[10][11]

U.S. House, Texas District 12 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngKay Granger Incumbent 69.4% 196,482
     Democratic Bill Bradshaw 26.9% 76,029
     Libertarian Ed Colliver 3.7% 10,604
Total Votes 283,115
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 12th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 12th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Kay Granger (R) defeated Mark Greene (D) and Ed Colliver (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 12 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngKay Granger Incumbent 71.3% 113,186
     Democratic Mark Greene 26.3% 41,757
     Libertarian Ed Colliver 2.4% 3,787
Total Votes 158,730
Source: Texas Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Vacant
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (12)
Vacancies (1)