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Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2020

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Texas' 15th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Vicente González (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 15th Congressional District
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Texas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 15th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. won election in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 15.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Vicente González, who was first elected in 2016.

Texas' 15th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state. All of Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg, Karnes, and Live Oak counties along with parts of Guadalupe, Hidalgo, and Wilson counties make up the district.[1]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 15th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 50.4 50.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 48.5 47.6
Difference 1.9 2.9

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 15

Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. defeated Monica De La Cruz and Ross Lynn Leone in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 15 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vicente Gonzalez Jr.
Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D)
 
50.5
 
115,605
Image of Monica De La Cruz
Monica De La Cruz (R) Candidate Connection
 
47.6
 
109,017
Image of Ross Lynn Leone
Ross Lynn Leone (L)
 
1.9
 
4,295

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 228,917
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 15

Monica De La Cruz defeated Ryan Krause in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 15 on July 14, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Monica De La Cruz
Monica De La Cruz Candidate Connection
 
76.0
 
7,423
Image of Ryan Krause
Ryan Krause Candidate Connection
 
24.0
 
2,350

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 9,773
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15

Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vicente Gonzalez Jr.
Vicente Gonzalez Jr.
 
100.0
 
43,689

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 43,689
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15

Monica De La Cruz and Ryan Krause advanced to a runoff. They defeated Tim Westley in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Monica De La Cruz
Monica De La Cruz Candidate Connection
 
43.0
 
11,330
✔
Image of Ryan Krause
Ryan Krause Candidate Connection
 
39.7
 
10,441
Image of Tim Westley
Tim Westley
 
17.3
 
4,550

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 26,321
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 15

Ross Lynn Leone advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Ross Lynn Leone
Ross Lynn Leone (L)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Texas' 15th Congressional District the 150th most Democratic nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Vicente Gonzalez Jr. Democratic Party $1,257,881 $908,000 $1,370,492 As of December 31, 2020
Monica De La Cruz Republican Party $422,613 $416,552 $7,506 As of December 31, 2020
Ross Lynn Leone Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 15th Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 15th Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 15th Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 15

Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. defeated Tim Westley and Anthony Cristo in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 15 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vicente Gonzalez Jr.
Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D)
 
59.7
 
98,333
Image of Tim Westley
Tim Westley (R) Candidate Connection
 
38.8
 
63,862
Image of Anthony Cristo
Anthony Cristo (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.6
 
2,607

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 164,802
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15

Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vicente Gonzalez Jr.
Vicente Gonzalez Jr.
 
100.0
 
33,549

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 33,549
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15

Tim Westley advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tim Westley
Tim Westley Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
14,794

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 14,794
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Vicente Gonzalez (D) defeated Tim Westley (R), Vanessa Tijerina (G), and Ross Lynn Leone (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. A runoff for both parties was held on May 24, 2016. In the runoff primaries, Westley defeated Ruben Villarreal, and Gonzalez defeated Juan Palacios Jr. Incumbent Ruben Hinojosa did not seek re-election.[10][11]

U.S. House, Texas District 15 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngVicente Gonzalez 57.3% 101,712
     Republican Tim Westley 37.7% 66,877
     Green Vanessa Tijerina 3.1% 5,448
     Libertarian Ross Lynn Leone 1.9% 3,442
Total Votes 177,479
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 15 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTim Westley 45% 13,164
Green check mark transparent.pngRuben Villarreal 32% 9,349
Xavier Salinas 23% 6,734
Total Votes 29,247
Source: Texas Secretary of State
U.S. House, Texas District 15 Republican Runoff Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTim Westley 50.5% 1,384
Ruben Villarreal 49.5% 1,355
Total Votes 2,739
Source: Texas Secretary of State
U.S. House, Texas District 15 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngVicente Gonzalez 42.2% 22,151
Green check mark transparent.pngJuan Palacios Jr. 18.9% 9,913
Dolly Elizondo 16.9% 8,888
Joel Quintanilla 11.7% 6,152
Ruben Ramirez Hinojosa 6% 3,149
Rance Sweeten 4.2% 2,224
Total Votes 52,477
Source: Texas Secretary of State
U.S. House, Texas District 15 Democratic Runoff Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngVicente Gonzalez 65.7% 16,071
Juan Palacios Jr. 34.3% 8,379
Total Votes 24,450
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 15th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 15th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Ruben Hinojosa Sr. (D) defeated Eddie Zamora (R) and Johnny Partain (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 15 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRuben Hinojosa Incumbent 54% 48,708
     Republican Eddie Zamora 43.3% 39,016
     Libertarian Johnny Partain 2.7% 2,460
Total Votes 90,184
Source: Texas Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Texas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  10. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
  11. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016


Texas' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
John Cornyn (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Vacant
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
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District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (12)
Vacancies (1)


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