Become part of the movement for unbiased, accessible election information. Donate today.

Texas' 19th Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022
2018
Texas' 19th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Jodey Arrington (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 19th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st32nd33rd34th35th36th
Texas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 19th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Jodey Arrington won election in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 19.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Jodey Arrington, who was first elected in 2016.

Texas' 19th Congressional District is located in the western portion of the state and includes Bailey, Border, Castro, Cochran, Crosby, Fisher, Gaines, Garza, Hale, Haskell, Hockley, Howard, Jones, Kent, Lamb, Lubbock, Lynn, Nolan, Parmer, Scurry, Shackelford, Stonewall, Taylor, Terry Throckmorton, Yoakum and Young counties as well as areas of Floyd and Stephens counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 19th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 26.3 22.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 72.2 74.8
Difference 45.9 51.9

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 19

Incumbent Jodey Arrington defeated Tom Watson and Joe Burnes in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 19 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jodey Arrington
Jodey Arrington (R)
 
74.8
 
198,198
Image of Tom Watson
Tom Watson (D) Candidate Connection
 
22.9
 
60,583
Image of Joe Burnes
Joe Burnes (L)
 
2.4
 
6,271

Total votes: 265,052
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 19

Tom Watson advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 19 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tom Watson
Tom Watson Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
19,993

Total votes: 19,993
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 19

Incumbent Jodey Arrington defeated Vance Boyd in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 19 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jodey Arrington
Jodey Arrington
 
89.4
 
71,234
Image of Vance Boyd
Vance Boyd
 
10.6
 
8,410

Total votes: 79,644
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 19

Joe Burnes advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 19 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
Image of Joe Burnes
Joe Burnes (L)

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+27, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 27 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 19th Congressional District the 12th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.02. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.02 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jodey Arrington Republican Party $2,535,448 $1,970,964 $1,099,354 As of December 31, 2020
Tom Watson Democratic Party $49,405 $60,806 $-20,984 As of December 31, 2020
Joe Burnes Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Texas' 19th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 19th Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 19th Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 19th Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 19th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 19

Incumbent Jodey Arrington defeated Miguel Levario in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 19 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jodey Arrington
Jodey Arrington (R)
 
75.2
 
151,946
Image of Miguel Levario
Miguel Levario (D) Candidate Connection
 
24.8
 
50,039

Total votes: 201,985
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 19

Miguel Levario advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 19 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Miguel Levario
Miguel Levario Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
9,648

Total votes: 9,648
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 19

Incumbent Jodey Arrington advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 19 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jodey Arrington
Jodey Arrington
 
100.0
 
55,433

Total votes: 55,433
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 19th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Jodey Arrington (R) defeated Mark Lawson (G) and Troy Bonar (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Arrington defeated Glen Robertson in the Republican primary runoff election on May 24, 2016. Robertson and Arrington defeated Greg Garrett, Donald May, DeRenda Warren, Don Parrish, Jason Corley, John Key and Michael Bob Starr in the Republican primary on March 1, 2016, to advance to the runoff election. No Democratic candidates filed to run in the race. Incumbent Randy Neugebauer did not seek re-election.[10][11][12]

U.S. House, Texas District 19 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJodey Arrington Incumbent 86.7% 176,314
     Libertarian Troy Bonar 8.5% 17,376
     Green Mark Lawson 4.8% 9,785
Total Votes 203,475
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 19 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGlen Robertson 26.8% 27,868
Green check mark transparent.pngJodey Arrington 25.9% 27,013
Michael Bob Starr 21.4% 22,303
Donald May 9.2% 9,616
Greg Garrett 8% 8,309
Jason Corley 2.5% 2,558
DeRenda Warren 2.2% 2,323
Don Parrish 2.1% 2,197
John Key 1.9% 1,959
Total Votes 104,146
Source: Texas Secretary of State
U.S. House, Texas District 19 Republican Runoff Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJodey Arrington 53.7% 25,322
Glen Robertson 46.3% 21,832
Total Votes 47,154
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 19th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 19th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Randy Neugebauer (R) defeated Neal Marchbanks (D) and Richard Peterson (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 19 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRandy Neugebauer Incumbent 77.1% 89,326
     Democratic Neal Marchbanks 18.4% 21,325
     Libertarian Richard Peterson 4.4% 5,120
     Write-in Donald L. Vance 0% 54
Total Votes 115,825
Source: Texas Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Vacant
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (12)
Vacancies (1)