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Texas' 23rd Congressional District election (March 6, 2018 Republican primary)

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2020
2016
Texas' 23rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 11, 2017
Primary: March 6, 2018
Primary runoff: May 22, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Will Hurd (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Texas' 23rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st32nd33rd34th35th36th27th (special)
Texas elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

A Republican Party primary election took place on March 6, 2018, in Texas' 23rd District to determine which Republican would run in the district's November 6, 2018, general election.

This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.

See also: United States House elections in Texas (March 6, 2018 Republican primaries) and United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
December 11, 2017
March 6, 2018
November 6, 2018

Candidates and election results

Incumbent William Hurd defeated Alma Arredondo-Lynch in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 23 on March 6, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 23

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of William Hurd
William Hurd
 
80.4
 
24,569
Image of Alma Arredondo-Lynch
Alma Arredondo-Lynch
 
19.6
 
5,986

Total votes: 30,555
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District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 23rd Congressional District the 227th most Republican nationally.[1]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[2]

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[3] Republican Party Republicans



Republican district won by Hillary Clinton

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[4] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.

Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.


2018 election results in Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 2nd Republican Party Martha McSally Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick D+9.5 Clinton+4.9 Romney+1.5
California's 10th Republican Party Jeff Denham Democratic Party Josh Harder D+2.6 Clinton+3.0 Obama+3.6
California's 21st Republican Party David Valadao Democratic Party TJ Cox D+0.8 Clinton+15.5 Obama+11.1
California's 25th Republican Party Steve Knight Democratic Party Katie Hill D+6.4 Clinton+6.7 Romney+1.9
California's 39th Republican Party Ed Royce Democratic Party Gil Cisneros D+1.4 Clinton+8.6 Romney+3.7
California's 45th Republican Party Mimi Walters Democratic Party Katie Porter D+1.6 Clinton+5.4 Romney+11.8
California's 48th Republican Party Dana Rohrabacher Democratic Party Harley Rouda D+5.8 Clinton+1.7 Romney+11.7
California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Democratic Party Mike Levin D+7.4 Clinton+7.5 Romney+6.7
Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Democratic Party Jason Crow D+11.2 Clinton+8.9 Obama+5.1
Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell D+1.8 Clinton+16.1 Obama+11.5
Florida's 27th Republican Party Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Democratic Party Donna Shalala D+6.0 Clinton+19.7 Obama+6.7
Illinois' 6th Republican Party Peter Roskam Democratic Party Sean Casten D+5.6 Clinton+7.0 Romney+8.2
Kansas' 3rd Republican Party Kevin Yoder Democratic Party Sharice Davids D+9.1 Clinton+1.2 Romney+9.5
Minnesota's 3rd Republican Party Erik Paulsen Democratic Party Dean Phillips D+11.4 Clinton+9.4 Obama+0.8
New Jersey's 7th Republican Party Leonard Lance Democratic Party Tom Malinowski D+4.7 Clinton+1.1 Romney+6.2
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Republican Party John Katko R+6.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick[5] Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick R+2.6 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Pennsylvania's 5th Republican Party Pat Meehan[6] Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+30.2 Clinton+28.2 Obama+27.7
Pennsylvania's 6th Republican Party Ryan Costello[7] Democratic Party Chrissy Houlahan D+17.6 Clinton+9.3 Obama+3.2
Pennsylvania's 7th Republican Party Charlie Dent[8] Democratic Party Susan Wild D+11.3 Clinton+1.1 Obama+7.0
Texas' 7th Republican Party John Culberson Democratic Party Lizzie Pannill Fletcher D+5.0 Clinton+1.4 Romney+21.3
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd R+0.5 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Texas' 32nd Republican Party Pete Sessions Democratic Party Colin Allred D+6.3 Clinton+1.9 Romney+15.5
Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton D+12.4 Clinton+10.0 Romney+1.6
Washington's 8th Republican Party David Reichert Democratic Party Kim Schrier D+6.2 Clinton+3.0 Obama+1.6


Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections..

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Texas heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Texas State Legislature. They had a 93-55 majority in the state House and a 21-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Texas was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House.

2018 elections

See also: Texas elections, 2018

Texas held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Texas
 TexasU.S.
Total population:27,429,639316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):261,2323,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:74.9%73.6%
Black/African American:11.9%12.6%
Asian:4.2%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,207$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Texas had a population of approximately 27,862,596 people, and its three largest cities were Houston (pop. est. 2.3 million), San Antonio (pop. est. 1.5 million), and Dallas (pop. est. 1.3 million).[9][10]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Texas from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Texas every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Texas 2000-2016[11][12]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 52.23% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 43.24% 8.99%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 57.17% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.38% 15.79%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 55.45% Democratic Party Barack Obama 43.68% 11.77%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 61.09% Democratic Party John Kerry 38.22% 22.87%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 59.30% Democratic Party Al Gore 37.98% 21.32%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Texas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Texas 2000-2016[13]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014[14] Republican Party John Cornyn 61.56% Democratic Party David Alameel 34.36% 27.20%
2012[15] Republican Party Ted Cruz 56.46% Democratic Party Paul Sadler 40.62% 15.84%
2008[16] Republican Party John Cornyn 54.82% Democratic Party Richard Noriega 42.84% 11.98%
2006[17] Republican Party Kay Bailey Hutchison 61.69% Democratic Party Barbara Ann Radnofsky 36.04% 25.65%
2002[18] Republican Party John Cornyn 55.30% Democratic Party Ron Kirk 43.33% 11.97%
2000[19] Republican Party Kay Bailey Hutchison 65.04% Democratic Party Gene Kelly 32.35% 32.69%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2014. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Texas.

Election results (Governor), Texas 2000-2016[20]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Greg Abbott 59.27% Democratic Party Wendy Davis 38.90% 20.37%
2010 Republican Party Rick Perry 54.97% Democratic Party Bill White 42.30% 12.67%
2006 Republican Party Rick Perry 39.03% Democratic Party Chris Bell 29.79% 9.24%
2002 Republican Party Rick Perry 57.81% Democratic Party Tony Sanchez 39.96% 17.85%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Texas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Texas 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 25 69.4% Democratic Party 11 30.6% R+14
2014 Republican Party 25 69.4% Democratic Party 11 30.6% R+14
2012 Republican Party 24 66.7% Democratic Party 12 33.3% R+12
2010 Republican Party 23 71.9% Democratic Party 9 28.1% R+14
2008 Republican Party 20 62.5% Democratic Party 12 37.5% R+8
2006 Republican Party 19 59.4% Democratic Party 13 40.6% R+6
2004 Republican Party 21 65.6% Democratic Party 11 34.4% R+10
2002 Republican Party 15 46.9% Democratic Party 17 53.1% D+2
2000 Republican Party 13 43.3% Democratic Party 17 56.7% D+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Texas Party Control: 1992-2025
Three years of Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  2. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  3. FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  4. This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  5. The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
  6. The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
  7. The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
  8. The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
  9. United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Texas," accessed December 12, 2017
  10. United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Houston; San Antonio; Dallas," accessed December 13, 2017
  11. Federal Election Commission, "2012 Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
  12. Federal Election Commission, "Official 2016 Presidential General Election Results," January 30, 2017
  13. Federal Election Commission, "Federal Elections 2014: Election Results for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
  14. Federal Election Commission, "2014 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  15. Federal Election Commission, "2012 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  16. Federal Election Commission, "2008 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  17. Federal Election Commission, "2006 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  18. Federal Election Commission, "2002 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  19. Federal Election Commission, "2000 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  20. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Texas Election Results," accessed December 13, 2017


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Vacant
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (12)
Vacancies (1)