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Texas' 31st Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 31

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Carter
John Carter (R)
 
50.6
 
144,680
Image of Mary Jennings Hegar
Mary Jennings Hegar (D)
 
47.7
 
136,362
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jason Hope (L)
 
1.7
 
4,965

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 286,007
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Texas' 31st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 11, 2017
Primary: March 6, 2018
Primary runoff: May 22, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
John Carter (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Texas' 31st Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th • 27th (special)
Texas elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 31st Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was John Carter (R), who was first elected in 2002.

Texas' 31st Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Williamson County and parts of Bell County.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 31

Incumbent John Carter defeated Mary Jennings Hegar and Jason Hope in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 31 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Carter
John Carter (R)
 
50.6
 
144,680
Image of Mary Jennings Hegar
Mary Jennings Hegar (D)
 
47.7
 
136,362
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jason Hope (L)
 
1.7
 
4,965

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 286,007
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 31

Mary Jennings Hegar defeated Christine Eady Mann in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 31 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mary Jennings Hegar
Mary Jennings Hegar
 
62.2
 
8,843
Image of Christine Eady Mann
Christine Eady Mann
 
37.8
 
5,371

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 14,214
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 31

Mary Jennings Hegar and Christine Eady Mann advanced to a runoff. They defeated Mike Clark and Richard Kent Lester in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 31 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mary Jennings Hegar
Mary Jennings Hegar
 
44.9
 
13,803
✔
Image of Christine Eady Mann
Christine Eady Mann
 
33.5
 
10,305
Image of Mike Clark
Mike Clark
 
11.2
 
3,449
Image of Richard Kent Lester
Richard Kent Lester
 
10.3
 
3,178

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 30,735
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 31

Incumbent John Carter defeated Mike Sweeney in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 31 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Carter
John Carter
 
65.5
 
34,513
Image of Mike Sweeney
Mike Sweeney
 
34.5
 
18,184

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 52,697
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 31st Congressional District the 130th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[3]

Endorsements

Campaign Tactics

Advertisements

M.J. Hegar

Support
"Doors" - Hegar campaign ad, released on June 20, 2018

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Texas' 31st Congressional District election, Hegar vs. Carter
Poll M.J. Hegar (D) John Carter (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
(November 28-29, 2017)		 46%44%10%+/-N/A613
New York Times / Sienna College
(October 1-5, 2018)		 38%53%9%+/-4.8490
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
John Carter Republican Party $1,820,253 $1,968,957 $254,705 As of December 31, 2018
Mary Jennings Hegar Democratic Party $5,122,102 $5,069,601 $47,482 As of December 31, 2018
Jason Hope Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Texas' 31st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Carter (R) defeated Mike Clark (D) and Scott Ballard (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Carter defeated Mike Sweeney in the Republican primary on March 1, 2016, while Clark faced no opposition in the Democratic primary.[14][15]

U.S. House, Texas District 31 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Carter Incumbent 58.4% 166,060
     Democratic Mike Clark 36.5% 103,852
     Libertarian Scott Ballard 5.2% 14,676
Total Votes 284,588
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 31 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Carter Incumbent 71.3% 62,817
Mike Sweeney 28.7% 25,306
Total Votes 88,123
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 31st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 31st Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent John Carter (R) defeated Louie Minor (D) and Scott Ballard (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 31 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Carter Incumbent 64% 91,607
     Democratic Louie Minor 32% 45,715
     Libertarian Scott Ballard 4% 5,706
Total Votes 143,028
Source: Texas Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[16][17]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Texas heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Texas State Legislature. They had a 93-55 majority in the state House and a 21-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Texas was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House.

2018 elections

See also: Texas elections, 2018

Texas held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Texas
 TexasU.S.
Total population:27,429,639316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):261,2323,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:74.9%73.6%
Black/African American:11.9%12.6%
Asian:4.2%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,207$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Texas had a population of approximately 27,862,596 people, and its three largest cities were Houston (pop. est. 2.3 million), San Antonio (pop. est. 1.5 million), and Dallas (pop. est. 1.3 million).[18][19]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Texas from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Texas every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Texas 2000-2016[20][21]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 52.23% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 43.24% 8.99%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 57.17% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.38% 15.79%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 55.45% Democratic Party Barack Obama 43.68% 11.77%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 61.09% Democratic Party John Kerry 38.22% 22.87%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 59.30% Democratic Party Al Gore 37.98% 21.32%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Texas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Texas 2000-2016[22]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014[23] Republican Party John Cornyn 61.56% Democratic Party David Alameel 34.36% 27.20%
2012[24] Republican Party Ted Cruz 56.46% Democratic Party Paul Sadler 40.62% 15.84%
2008[25] Republican Party John Cornyn 54.82% Democratic Party Richard Noriega 42.84% 11.98%
2006[26] Republican Party Kay Bailey Hutchison 61.69% Democratic Party Barbara Ann Radnofsky 36.04% 25.65%
2002[27] Republican Party John Cornyn 55.30% Democratic Party Ron Kirk 43.33% 11.97%
2000[28] Republican Party Kay Bailey Hutchison 65.04% Democratic Party Gene Kelly 32.35% 32.69%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2014. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Texas.

Election results (Governor), Texas 2000-2016[29]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Greg Abbott 59.27% Democratic Party Wendy Davis 38.90% 20.37%
2010 Republican Party Rick Perry 54.97% Democratic Party Bill White 42.30% 12.67%
2006 Republican Party Rick Perry 39.03% Democratic Party Chris Bell 29.79% 9.24%
2002 Republican Party Rick Perry 57.81% Democratic Party Tony Sanchez 39.96% 17.85%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Texas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Texas 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 25 69.4% Democratic Party 11 30.6% R+14
2014 Republican Party 25 69.4% Democratic Party 11 30.6% R+14
2012 Republican Party 24 66.7% Democratic Party 12 33.3% R+12
2010 Republican Party 23 71.9% Democratic Party 9 28.1% R+14
2008 Republican Party 20 62.5% Democratic Party 12 37.5% R+8
2006 Republican Party 19 59.4% Democratic Party 13 40.6% R+6
2004 Republican Party 21 65.6% Democratic Party 11 34.4% R+10
2002 Republican Party 15 46.9% Democratic Party 17 53.1% D+2
2000 Republican Party 13 43.3% Democratic Party 17 56.7% D+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Texas Party Control: 1992-2025
Three years of Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Texas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Statesman, "Emily’s List gets involved in fifth Texas race for Congress," accessed July 17, 2018
  5. ↑ End Citizens United, "End Citizens United Endorses MJ Hegar for Congress in TX-31," accessed July 17, 2018
  6. ↑ With Honor, "Our Candidates," accessed July 17, 2018
  7. ↑ ABC News, "Veteran-turned-congressional candidate draws attention for personal campaign ad," accessed July 17, 2018
  8. ↑ SNAP PAC, "2018 Endorsements," accessed July 17, 2018
  9. ↑ Serve America, "Meet America's New Generation of Leaders," accessed July 17, 2018
  10. ↑ Facebook, "Liberal Austin Democrats," accessed July 17, 2018
  11. ↑ Texas Right to Life PAC, "2018 Endorsements," accessed July 17, 2018
  12. ↑ Texas Farm Bureau Agfund, "TFB AGFUND official endorsements for 2018 primaries," accessed July 17, 2018
  13. ↑ Texas Alliance for Life, "Texas Alliance for Life* Endorsements 2018 Primary Election," accessed July 17, 2018
  14. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
  15. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016
  16. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  17. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  18. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Texas," accessed December 12, 2017
  19. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Houston; San Antonio; Dallas," accessed December 13, 2017
  20. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2012 Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
  21. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Official 2016 Presidential General Election Results," January 30, 2017
  22. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Federal Elections 2014: Election Results for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
  23. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2014 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  24. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2012 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  25. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2008 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  26. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2006 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  27. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2002 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  28. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2000 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  29. ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Texas Election Results," accessed December 13, 2017
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