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Texas' 31st Congressional District election, 2020

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Texas' 31st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Democratic primary runoff
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
John Carter (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 31st Congressional District
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Texas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 31st Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent John Carter defeated Donna Imam, Clark Patterson, and Jonathan Scott in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 31 on November 3, 2020.

Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Carter defeated three other candidates in the March 3, 2020, Republican primary, receiving 82 percent of the vote. No other candidate received over 10 percent. Imam defeated Eady Mann after advancing to a July 14, 2020, runoff.

Carter represented the 31st District since it was created in 2003. In 2018, Carter defeated M.J. Hegar (D), receiving 50.6 percent of the vote to Hegar's 47.7 percent, the first time a Democrat had earned over 40 percent of the vote in the 31st District. The 2.9 point margin of victory marked a decrease from previous elections. In 2016 and 2014, the Republican candidate—Carter—won by margins of victory of 21.9 and 32.1 points, respectively.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Texas' 31st Congressional District was located in the central portion of the state and included Williamson County and parts of Bell County.[1]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 31st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 47.6 44.3
Republican candidate Republican Party 50.4 53.4
Difference 2.8 9.1

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 31

Incumbent John Carter defeated Donna Imam, Clark Patterson, and Jonathan Scott in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 31 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Carter
John Carter (R)
 
53.4
 
212,695
Image of Donna Imam
Donna Imam (D)
 
44.3
 
176,293
Image of Clark Patterson
Clark Patterson (L) Candidate Connection
 
2.2
 
8,922
Image of Jonathan Scott
Jonathan Scott (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
147

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 398,057
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 31

Donna Imam defeated Christine Eady Mann in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 31 on July 14, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Donna Imam
Donna Imam
 
56.6
 
21,026
Image of Christine Eady Mann
Christine Eady Mann
 
43.4
 
16,109

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 37,135
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 31

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 31 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Christine Eady Mann
Christine Eady Mann
 
34.7
 
24,145
✔
Image of Donna Imam
Donna Imam
 
30.7
 
21,352
Image of Tammy Young
Tammy Young
 
14.3
 
9,956
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Michael Grimes (Unofficially withdrew)
 
10.8
 
7,542
Image of Eric Hanke
Eric Hanke Candidate Connection
 
5.9
 
4,117
Image of Dan Janjigian
Dan Janjigian Candidate Connection
 
3.6
 
2,471

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 69,583
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 31

Incumbent John Carter defeated Mike Williams, Christopher Wall, and Abhiram Garapati in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 31 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Carter
John Carter
 
82.3
 
53,070
Image of Mike Williams
Mike Williams Candidate Connection
 
8.6
 
5,560
Image of Christopher Wall
Christopher Wall Candidate Connection
 
4.9
 
3,155
Image of Abhiram Garapati
Abhiram Garapati Candidate Connection
 
4.2
 
2,717

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 64,502
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 31

Clark Patterson advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 31 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Clark Patterson
Clark Patterson (L) Candidate Connection

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


Candidate Conversations

Moderated by journalist and political commentator Greta Van Susteren, Candidate Conversations is a virtual debate format that allows voters to easily get to know their candidates through a short video Q&A. Click below to watch the conversation for this race.

Runoff elections in Texas

In Texas, a primary election candidate for congressional, state, or county office must receive a majority of the vote (more than 50%) to be declared the winner. If no candidate wins the requisite majority, a runoff election is held between the top two vote-getters.[2]

As of 2020, the Texas Secretary of State office stated, "There is no requirement to have previously voted in the general primary election in order to participate in the subsequent primary runoff election. Therefore, if a qualified voter did not vote in the general primary election, they are still eligible to vote in the primary runoff election." The office also stated that "if a voter votes in the primary of one party, they will only be able to vote in that party’s primary runoff election. ... After being affiliated with a party, a voter is not able to change or cancel their party affiliation until the end of the calendar year."[3]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 31st Congressional District the 130th most Republican nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[7]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
John Carter Republican Party $2,168,868 $2,223,167 $200,406 As of December 31, 2020
Donna Imam Democratic Party $1,242,168 $1,242,218 $-50 As of December 31, 2020
Clark Patterson Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Jonathan Scott Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Texas' 31st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 31st Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 31st Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 31st Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 31st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 31

Incumbent John Carter defeated Mary Jennings Hegar and Jason Hope in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 31 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Carter
John Carter (R)
 
50.6
 
144,680
Image of Mary Jennings Hegar
Mary Jennings Hegar (D)
 
47.7
 
136,362
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jason Hope (L)
 
1.7
 
4,965

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 286,007
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 31

Mary Jennings Hegar defeated Christine Eady Mann in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 31 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mary Jennings Hegar
Mary Jennings Hegar
 
62.2
 
8,843
Image of Christine Eady Mann
Christine Eady Mann
 
37.8
 
5,371

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 14,214
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 31

Mary Jennings Hegar and Christine Eady Mann advanced to a runoff. They defeated Mike Clark and Richard Kent Lester in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 31 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mary Jennings Hegar
Mary Jennings Hegar
 
44.9
 
13,803
✔
Image of Christine Eady Mann
Christine Eady Mann
 
33.5
 
10,305
Image of Mike Clark
Mike Clark
 
11.2
 
3,449
Image of Richard Kent Lester
Richard Kent Lester
 
10.3
 
3,178

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 30,735
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 31

Incumbent John Carter defeated Mike Sweeney in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 31 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Carter
John Carter
 
65.5
 
34,513
Image of Mike Sweeney
Mike Sweeney
 
34.5
 
18,184

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 52,697
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 31st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Carter (R) defeated Mike Clark (D) and Scott Ballard (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Carter defeated Mike Sweeney in the Republican primary on March 1, 2016, while Clark faced no opposition in the Democratic primary.[12][13]

U.S. House, Texas District 31 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Carter Incumbent 58.4% 166,060
     Democratic Mike Clark 36.5% 103,852
     Libertarian Scott Ballard 5.2% 14,676
Total Votes 284,588
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 31 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Carter Incumbent 71.3% 62,817
Mike Sweeney 28.7% 25,306
Total Votes 88,123
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 31st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 31st Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent John Carter (R) defeated Louie Minor (D) and Scott Ballard (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 31 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Carter Incumbent 64% 91,607
     Democratic Louie Minor 32% 45,715
     Libertarian Scott Ballard 4% 5,706
Total Votes 143,028
Source: Texas Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Texas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Texas Legislature, "Chapter 172. Primary Elections," accessed July 10, 2020
  3. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "Election Advisory No. 2020-05," February 11, 2020
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  6. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
  13. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016


Texas' current delegation to the United States Congress
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