Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022 →
← 2018
Texas' 7th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 7th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th
Texas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 7th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Lizzie Pannill Fletcher won election in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 7.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, who was first elected in 2018.

Fletcher ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Hunt defeated five other candidates in the Republican primary with 61.0% of the vote.

In February 2019, Fletcher was named among the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)'s Frontline program members. DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said, "Our Majority hinges on these Members from tough seats winning reelection in 2020, and with today’s announcement we’re sending a clear message that the DCCC will stand shoulder to shoulder with them in the fight ahead."[1]

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Hunt as an "On the Radar" candidate in its Young Guns program in August 2019 and advanced him to "Contender" status in February 2020 and to "Young Guns" status in April. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said, "These candidates are running extraordinarily competitive, top-of-the-line campaign operations. ... Their hard work has put the majority well within our reach, and I look forward to welcoming each one of them to Congress come fall."[2][3][4]

Fletcher was first elected in 2018. She defeated incumbent John Culberson (R) 52.5% to 47.5%. Culberson was first elected in 2000 and had last won re-election in 2016 by a margin of 12 percentage points.

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average.

The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party had one seat. Four seats were vacant. Democrats defended 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans defended five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016. Texas' 7th Congressional District is located in the southeastern portion of the state and includes part of Harris County.[5]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 7th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 53.6 50.8
Republican candidate Republican Party 45.1 47.5
Difference 8.5 3.3

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 7

Incumbent Lizzie Pannill Fletcher defeated Wesley Hunt and Shawn Kelly in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 7 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D)
 
50.8
 
159,529
Image of Wesley Hunt
Wesley Hunt (R)
 
47.5
 
149,054
Image of Shawn Kelly
Shawn Kelly (L)
 
1.8
 
5,542

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 314,125
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 7

Incumbent Lizzie Pannill Fletcher advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 7 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
 
100.0
 
55,243

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 55,243
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 7

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 7 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Wesley Hunt
Wesley Hunt
 
61.0
 
28,060
Image of Cindy Siegel
Cindy Siegel Candidate Connection
 
27.2
 
12,497
Image of Maria Espinoza
Maria Espinoza
 
5.9
 
2,716
Image of Kyle Preston
Kyle Preston Candidate Connection
 
3.0
 
1,363
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jim Noteware
 
2.0
 
937
Image of Laique Rehman
Laique Rehman Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
424

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 45,997
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 7

Shawn Kelly advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 7 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Shawn Kelly
Shawn Kelly (L)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2020: General election polls
Poll Date Democratic Party Fletcher Republican Party Hunt Other Margin of error Sample size Sponsor
Remington Research Group March 4-5, 2020 45% 45% 10% 3.0% 1,044 --


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 7th Congressional District the 177th most Republican nationally.[8]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[9]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher Democratic Party $6,405,639 $6,386,610 $61,097 As of December 31, 2020
Wesley Hunt Republican Party $7,611,866 $7,387,924 $223,942 As of December 31, 2020
Shawn Kelly Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 As of September 30, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 7th Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 7th Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 7th Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 7

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher defeated incumbent John Culberson in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 7 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D)
 
52.5
 
127,959
Image of John Culberson
John Culberson (R)
 
47.5
 
115,642

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 243,601
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 7

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher defeated Laura Moser in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 7 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
 
67.9
 
9,888
Image of Laura Moser
Laura Moser
 
32.1
 
4,666

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 14,554
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 7

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 7 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
 
29.4
 
9,768
✔
Image of Laura Moser
Laura Moser
 
24.3
 
8,099
Image of Jason Westin
Jason Westin
 
19.2
 
6,375
Image of Alex Triantaphyllis
Alex Triantaphyllis
 
15.7
 
5,234
Image of Ivan Sanchez
Ivan Sanchez
 
5.7
 
1,895
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Joshua Butler
 
3.8
 
1,253
Image of James Cargas
James Cargas
 
2.0
 
651

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 33,275
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 7

Incumbent John Culberson defeated Edward Ziegler in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 7 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Culberson
John Culberson
 
76.1
 
28,944
Image of Edward Ziegler
Edward Ziegler
 
23.9
 
9,088

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 38,032
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Culberson (R) defeated James Cargas (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Culberson defeated Maria Espinoza and James Lloyd in the Republican primary on March 1, 2016, while Cargas faced no opposition in the Democratic primary.[14][15]

U.S. House, Texas District 7 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Culberson Incumbent 56.2% 143,542
     Democratic James Cargas 43.8% 111,991
Total Votes 255,533
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 7 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Culberson Incumbent 57.3% 44,290
James Lloyd 24.9% 19,217
Maria Espinoza 17.8% 13,793
Total Votes 77,300
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 7th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 7th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent John Culberson (R) defeated James Cargas (D) and Gerald Fowler (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 7 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Culberson Incumbent 63.3% 90,606
     Democratic James Cargas 34.5% 49,478
     Libertarian Gerald Fowler 2.2% 3,135
Total Votes 143,219
Source: Texas Secretary of State

State profile

See also: Texas and Texas elections, 2019
USA Texas location map.svg

Partisan data

The information in this section was current as of January 22, 2020

Presidential voting pattern

  • Texas voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Texas Party Control: 1992-2025
Three years of Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Texas quick stats
  • Became a state in 1845
  • 28th state admitted to the United States
  • Texas was an independent republic from 1836 to 1845
  • Members of the Texas State Senate: 31
  • Members of the Texas House of Representatives: 150
  • U.S. senators: 2
  • U.S. representatives: 36
More Texas coverage on Ballotpedia:


Demographic data for Texas
 TexasU.S.
Total population:27,429,639316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):261,2323,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:74.9%73.6%
Black/African American:11.9%12.6%
Asian:4.2%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,207$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline," February 7, 2019
  2. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces 43 “On the Radar” Candidates in First Round of Young Guns Program," August 16, 2019
  3. ↑ NRCC, "McCarthy Announces 35 Candidates in First Round of Young Gun 'Contenders,'" February 19, 2020
  4. ↑ NRCC, "McCarthy Announces Seven 'Young Guns' in Final Phase of Young Guns Program," April 14, 2020
  5. ↑ Texas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  9. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
  15. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016


Texas' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
John Cornyn (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Vacant
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (12)
Vacancies (1)


v • e
2019-2020 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona (special) • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia (special) • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming
CongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Texas%27_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2020&oldid=8720483"